NICK@AI.AI.MIT.EDU (Nick Papadakis) (06/08/88)
Date: Tue, 7 Jun 88 07:55 EDT
From: m06242%mwvm@mitre.arpa
Full-Name:
Organization: The MITRE Corp., Washington, D.C.
Apparently-To: ailist@ai.ai.mit.edu
Subject: Response to: AI in weather forecasting
To: AILIST@AI.AI.MIT.EDU
From: George Swetnam
Subject: AI in Weather Forecasting
In 1985, The MITRE Corporation and the National Center for Atmospheric
Research collaborated in an experimental expert system for predicting
upslope snowstorms in the Denver, Colorado area. An upslope storm is
one which gets the necessary atmospheric lifting from translation of a
moist airmass up a topographic slope. Upslope storms are responsible
for roughly 60% of the precipitation in the Denver region; in this case
the topographic slope is the slow, long rise from the Mississippi River
to the foot of the Rocky Mountains.
The most recent published information on this work is the paper whose
title and abstract appear below.
FIELD TRIAL OF A FORECASTER'S ASSISTANT FOR THE PREDICTION OF
UPSLOPE SNOWSTORMS
G. F. Swetnam and E. J. Dombroski, The MITRE Corporation
R. F. Bunting, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
AIAA 25th Aerospace Sciences Meeting, January 12-15, 1987
Paper No. AIAA 87-0029
ABSTRACT
An experimental expert system has been developed to assist a
meteorologist in forecasting upslope snowstorms in the Denver, Colorado
area. The system requests about 35 data entries in a typical session
and evaluates the potential for adequate moisture, lifting, and cold
temperatures. From these it forecasts the expected snowfall amount.
The user can trace the reasoning behind the forecast and alter selected
input data to determine how alternative conditions affect the
expectation of snow.
Written in Prolog, the system runs on an IBM PC or PC compatible
microcomputer. A field trial was held in the winter of 1985-86 to test
system operation and improve the rule base. The system performed well,
but needs further refinement and automatic data collection before it can
be considered ready for evaluation in an operational context.
George Swetnam (gswetnam@mitre)
The MITRE Corporation
7525 Colshire Drive
McLean, VA 22102
Tel: (703) 883-5845
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* George
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