[comp.ai.digest] Expert Systems for Statistical Analysis

KDM2520@TAMSIGMA.BITNET (08/28/88)

Date: Thu, 25 Aug 88 22:21 EDT
From: KDM2520%TAMSIGMA.BITNET@MITVMA.MIT.EDU
Subject:  Expert Systems for Statistical Analysis
To: AILIST@AI.AI.MIT.EDU
X-Original-To:  AILIST@AI.AI.MIT.EDU, KDM2520


If anyone on the list is aware of any commercial expert systems which do
statistical analysis, I sure would appreciate the information.  I am looking
for expert statistical analysis packages which process data, analyze
correlation etc., forecast trends, detect regeneration cycles, and so on.
I have looked through AI Magazine, IEEE Expert and several Computer journals
and I couldn't see any such product advertisements.  Could someone who is
aware of such expert statistical analysis packages send me the info please?

Thank you.                                              MURALI@TAMLSR (bitnet)

cik@L.CC.PURDUE.EDU (Herman Rubin) (08/30/88)

Date: Mon, 29 Aug 88 12:19 EDT
From: Herman Rubin <cik@l.cc.purdue.edu>
To: ailist-request@kl.sri.com
Path: l.cc.purdue.edu!cik
From: Herman Rubin <cik@l.cc.purdue.edu>
Newsgroups: comp.ai.digest
Subject: Re: Expert Systems for Statistical Analysis
Summary: Do not ask for the impossible.
Date: Mon, 29 Aug 88 08:24 EDT
References: <19880828002614.0.NICK@HOWARD-JOHNSONS.LCS.MIT.EDU>
Organization: Purdue University Statistics Department
Lines: 35


In a previous article, KDM2520@TAMSIGMA.BITNET writes:

> If anyone on the list is aware of any commercial expert systems which do
> statistical analysis, I sure would appreciate the information.  I am looking
> for expert statistical analysis packages which process data, analyze
> correlation etc., forecast trends, detect regeneration cycles, and so on.
> I have looked through AI Magazine, IEEE Expert and several Computer journals
> and I couldn't see any such product advertisements.  Could someone who is
> aware of such expert statistical analysis packages send me the info please?
> 
> Thank you.                                              MURALI@TAMLSR (bitnet)

There are things that a computer is capable of doing, but this is not one of
them.  Statistics is not a black box into which one can put data and come out
with the state of the universe.

To analyze a problem, it is necessary for the user to input a model, or better,
a collection of models.  The user must realize that many assumptions must be
made.  It is advisable to have a good mathematical statistician available to
point out the consequences of the model which the user does not realize have
been inserted.  Analyze correlation indeed!  It is extremely rare that
correlation has anything to do with the real problem.

In addition, the user must have an evaluation of the consequences of an
incorrect action.  Massive statistical uncertainty may be irrelevant if the
resulting action is unaffected, and small uncertainty may be very important
if the effects of a wrong action are sufficiently great.  I personally have
worked on this problem, and the difficulties are major.

Statistical packages of the type to use this input, when well formulated, are
still in the development stage.  
-- 
Herman Rubin, Dept. of Statistics, Purdue Univ., West Lafayette IN47907
Phone: (317)494-6054
hrubin@l.cc.purdue.edu (Internet, bitnet, UUCP)