[net.news] Future patterns in usenet usage

draper (01/19/83)

I wish to draw attention to a very sensible point made by Simon Gibbs of
Toronto recently, and also (I now realise on re-reading this article) reply
in effect to points made by Steven McGeady of Tektronix on the proliferation
of newsgroups.  These points all start from the observation that usenet is
expanding rapidly, and that means more newsgroups and more news.   This
follows simply from the observation that the number of sites and users is
growing fast, and if the rate of submissions per user remains even
approximately constant then there will be more articles in total.

The first consequence is for the number of newsgroups.  The mechanism
netnews offers to help readers select a manageable subset for reading is
the newsgroup, so it is vital, if the the average user's appetite for
articles remains constant, for the number of (active) newsgroups to grow.
This was Simon's point, and it seems quite right to me.  Therefore it is
wrong to argue, as some have, that there should be growing restraint on
creating new newsgroups, such as requiring a larger number of positive
responses to suggestions to create a new one.  Not creating a new group
will not reduce the number of articles, only our ability to filter them out
easily from our personal reading.  The real problem is whether sites can
afford to process and store a swelling volume of news, much of which might
not be read by its own users if the amount each person reads remains
roughly constant while the total volume grows -- I take this up below.
Meanwhile, we can reasonably predict a growing number of newsgroups as a
proper consequence of the swelling amount of news.

(The growth in newsgroups seems entirely OK to me.  It is no problem to
expire defunct newsgroups periodically and on a local basis by simple
scripts that look at if a group has been idle for longer than some threshold,
delete the newsgroup directory, dotfile, and line in the active file, and
run an overnight script that updates all .newsrc files by deleting all
lines referring to groups not in the active file.)

Various other consequences seem likely to follow, besides the proliferation
of newsgroups. 

1)  The growing use of secretary programs to help users pre-sort articles.
Readnews -t does a crude version of this.  For instance,
"readnews -p -t burger > /dev/null" will junk all messages that admit in their
title that they are about the hamburger war.  Tom Neuendorffer's recent
program presumably does it better.

2)  More and more sites will have to think hard about limiting their news
intakes because of the growing cost.  I am experimenting with scripts that
measure disk storage costs, how many groups never get read, and splitting
disk costs between users.  Eventually this might be used to change sys
files automatically so as not to receive groups that are never read.   In
effect an unsubscribe command for a whole site would be required -- new groups
would be received, but after a grace period of 2 weeks, if no-one was reading
it the sys file would be changed and the group deleted.  (See below.)

3) CPU and transmission costs are also already considerable and growing
with the net.  Here at UCSD we have gone over locally to a batching system
developed from the one published on the net that effects very considerable
savings in uucp/berknet overhead: if we were paying phone charges as well
we would be even more keen on it.  In addition on my machine, we take care
to have only one version of inews at a time processing incoming news, and
to run it niced so as (we hope) to prevent it from loading the machine
noticeably. 
	As the size of daily news grows, I suspect new sites may not even
consider bringing up netnews without batching software, so it may be time
to develop some standard version and to distribute it with the other
netnews software.  Batching may be considered a fairly cheap and painless way
of overcoming a lot of the horror of uucp overhead.
	Saving on CPU and transmission overheads is a further motive for
reducing the number of groups received, if the sender's sys file can be
altered dynamically (as opposed to simply altering one's own, which would only
achieve savings in storage, not in transmission and processing).  Presumably
the best way to do this would be to have a new control message recognised by
inews to change a sender's sys file at the request of the receiver.

4)  As the cost of netnews rises, I expect to see the informal hierarchical
structure of the net grow more and more pronounced.  The software is set up
to support a net without any structure -- multiple paths are fine, and any
connections and patterns of connections will work.  I am sure that that is
a very good design choice.  What I am getting at is that in practice there
is a kind of hierarchy with major and minor sites.  Looking at the
published maps shows that the net actually consists of a "big 6" connected
in a ring (UCB, decvax, harpo,
...), then main branches off that, and finally local networks.  This could
become more pronounced if people go in for reduced subscription lists,
since that will only work for sites that get news from a major site that is
itself guaranteed to get all newsgroups.  Only one machine in a local
cluster need get all groups, the rest can economise.  There is already the
beginnings of this distribution of labor in that only a few sites keep
archives of old articles -- a service appreciated by other sites that can
draw on them occasionally. 
	Clearly some acknowledgement of the service rendered will more and
more have to be made since while an overall saving of costs is achieved by
not duplicating unnecessarily the costs, the central servers are having to
pay more than their share of CPU and storage resources.  Note that these
considerations favor a star network.  This is already favored by recipients
because it reduces the delay before they get new news, and means they don't
have to forward it, but is disliked by the sender since it means they have
increased transmission costs.  A suitable quid pro quo might be to have
recipients pay the phone bill if senders are carrying higher machine costs.
Similarly, sending news batches only at night reuces CPU "cost" as well as
phone charges.

5)  A similar division of the labor involved with netnews is appearing 
at the personal level between users at a given site.  There is too much news
for a normal person to keep up with, so we each tend to select a subset.
However if we're lucky, colleagues will forward articles from the groups that
they see and we don't if they think they are exceptionally interesting.
I am about to investigate making it easier for people to produce these
personal digests of netnews to be posted to a local group (a kind of
"the best of netnews" idea) by adding a "digest" command to readnews, and/or
having a "postdigest" command.  Less formally, readnews needs a "forward"
command so a user can send an article to a colleague they think will appreciate
it.

6)  It is possible that digests like this may catch on as distributed
newsgroups on a net-wide basis.  However this is less likely, as making a
good digest depends on having a sense for what your colleagues would like
to see -- this is the net's weakest point, leading to flames, endless
discussions about what should be published etc. etc.  However if people are
interested in pusuing the idea of moderated (i.e. edited) newsgroups, then
I think this is how they should be done -- as separate groups run in
competition with the standard ones.  If they are doing their job, then many
readers will ONLY read the digests and not the original groups, and this
will become apparent to measuring software at individual sites.

CONCLUSION:
	Netnews is based on division into newsgroups, so they should
continue to be created easily and with low readership.  This helps the rest
of us to avoid articles we don't want to see.  It could also become a basis
for systems to reduce their costs by not subscribing to groups that their
users don't read.  Mailing lists for low circulation discussions is one
proposed alternative to spawning new groups, and indeed it would save on
costs.  However it would abandon the unique characteristic of netnews --
that readers can see articles without knowing in advance that they want to
see them and without going to any special trouble to obtain them.  As
newspapers articles show, there is a whole class of reading matter that
people do not know in advance they want to read but do read and enjoy when
it is put under their noses (I mean "eyes" I guess).  Only a few will care
enough to write in and say they want a particular column, but many more
read it.  However when no-one even opens the paper (newsgroup) any more, it
is time to stop subscribing to it.

				Steve Draper
				UCSD, San Diego
				ucbvax!sdcsvax!sdcsla!draper   draper@nprdc

djj (01/20/83)

Steve Draper's recent article was very well-written.  I agree with much of
what he said.  However, I must take exception to one quote (from item 1, I
think):  "and an overnight batch program can update all .newsrc files to
remove all references to deleted newsgroups [ that's from memory, the original
already scrolled out of screen memory]."

For my money, this smacks of 1984 and the re-writing of history.  I prefer
to keep all groups that I read and used to read in my .newsrc; it indicates
the changes in my reading patterns, reminds me of past battles fought on
the net (i.e. net.women), and also reminds me about trying to start
inconsequential newsgroups (net.suicide, etc.).

Perhaps a better way might be to "mark" such affected newsgroups within
the users' .newsrc files so that they will have no effect when reading news.
This would notify the users of the deletion of said newsgroups and preserve
the desirable features I mentioned above.

Dave Johnson
BTL - Piscataway