pag@hao.UUCP (Peter Gross) (11/16/84)
> It won't get off the ground, eh? If I were you, I wouldn't put > a lot of money into that prediction. And I should know. > Some things happen *much* faster than you might expect. > Am I being oblique? Yeah. I don't want to ruin the big announcement. > Stay tuned. And watch the skies--and your televisions. Ok, Lauren, Doomsayer is ready to put his money where his mouth is. I bet you one case of your favorite beer (vs. mine), to be paid at the USENIX conference following Dallas (Portland?), that satellite transmission of netnews will not be operational by that time. By operational, let's say that more than 5% of USENET must recieve their news via satellite. We will use the net at large as judge of the winner of the wager. Is it a bet? Ye olde doomsayer, --peter gross hao!pag PS. Hope I lose!
lauren@vortex.UUCP (Lauren Weinstein) (11/17/84)
I'm not going to make any predictions about how fast various sites would be willing to decide they want to spend the money to receive netnews via non-phone connections. Also, I don't consider the success or failure of such a venture to be based on percentages, since even the early switch of a few large sites to such a system could make the difference between the continued life or early death of the net, even if thousands of tiny little sites continue to get netnews via local phone feeds. Nor would I ever expect sites to usually receive ALL netnews via satellite--there will always be some messages that are not suitable for broadcast in their original network form (either due to topic (net.jokes.disgusting) or repetition (what was Batman's real name -- we only need this answer ONCE.) There's also no easy way for me to predict the production schedules of decoder manufacturs or the installation schedules of cable TV and satellite earthstation suppliers. However, we are talking about something new here, something with the potential of making a very significant difference in the net over the short to medium term. It's not going to be available (or necessarily desired) by every site overnight. And even it was, there will probably be some delays with equipment since nobody is geared up for mass production of decoders yet and won't be for several months at least. But I can make this prediction. Barring logistical problems in Dallas (costs or buildings in the wrong place) there's a real good chance you'll be able to see netnews materials pouring into a computer from a dish pointed at the sky. If they had a decent cable service in the area (they don't) the dish wouldn't even be needed. I think that's enough to expect about 6 months after I proposed the project as a theoretical venture, without funding of any kind at the time. Keep in mind that most people have been telling me all along that I'd never be able to get anyone to provide the satellite space for the project, and that I was wasting my time trying. We'll see about that. --Lauren--