TELECOM Moderator <telecom@eecs.nwu.edu> (02/12/90)
Alfred C. Sikes, chairman of the Federal Communications Commission was in Chicago two weeks ago, speaking to communications industry executives in our town. Here are excerpts from his comments: "Alvin Toffler observed in his 1970 book, 'Future Shock,' that the pace of societal change was increasingly beyond our ability to adapt. Changing employment relations, frequent family moves and an assortment of other things caused Toffler to worry that many Americans would simply be unable to cope with the future. "As Toffler prepared the world for future shock, global thinkers pronounced the Industrial Age dead and hailed the Information Age as the wave of the future. Many pundits define the Information Age by listing the numerous new services available to consumers, such as computerized shopping, electronic banking, and Nintendo. Others talk about the ubiquity of the telephone or the importance of the television. "To me, the Information Age tends to be characterized by two facts: First, the value of information is rapidly becoming greater than the value of things. Second, the irrepressibility od information will undermine efforts to control people or markets. "I am convinced that while Mikhail Gorbachev and Solidarity were both powerful forces behind the revolutionary changes in Europem it was the ubiquity of video information, chronicling the advantages of freedom, that lead to the upheaval. In addition, reports of a revolution in one part of the Eastern bloc motivated people in other parts. "In the Industrial Age, wealth or power often resulted from manufacturing techniques buttressed by cheap labor, bountiful natural resources and favorable location. In the Information Age, power and wealth are increasingly available only to those who can select (or obtain) and effectively use information, regardless of the labor costs, resource availability or physical location of their company. "Just seven years ago, four firms offered most of the information services in our consumer-driven economy: AT&T, CBS, NBC, and ABC. The Federal Communications Commission was then referred to as a 'communications gatekeeper.' The scope of FCC responsibilities has changed significantly since then. "For decades, General Motors, AT&T and IBM were among the behemoths of U.S. industry. In 1970, GM's share of the U.S. auto market was about sixty percent, but now in 1990, the share had slipped below 34 percent. In 1970, AT&T controlled about 97 percent of the U.S. long-distance phone call market; today its share is about 68 percent. In 1970, IBM was the pre-eminent computer company -- and today? Only about 30 percent of the volatile and growing personal computer market belongs to IBM. "There are many reasons why the dominance of these companies has diminished. But the factor that stands out is the power of information. Its wider availability, the revolutionary new techniques for using informatin in research, development, manufacturing and marketing -- plus access to persuasive new video advertising techniques -- offer new entrepreneurial opportunities, and make it more difficult for dominant companies to maintain market shares. "The changes in information technology are nothing short of astounding. Fiber technologies were in the laboratories just eight or nine years ago. Now we have about 80,000 miles of fiber optic cables throughout the United States. The technology we know as the fax machine has been around for decades, but only in the last few years has its application and use become widespread. Changes to come will be equally dramatic. In the Information Age, future shock will not ebb, it will flow on and on. "The Federal Communications Commission faces one of the most difficult challenges of this new age. When law and tradition say you are a regulatory agency, how can you at the same time be a leader and facilitator? Regulators don't lead, they regulate, conduct, or provide access to -- and use of -- scarce resources. But if the FCC is merely reactive, chances are good the government will retard progress, either wittingly or unwittingly. "The FCC will continue to have authority over prices, earnings and investment. As it exercises this authority, it is essential that the agency understand the impact of its decisions on modernization. Yesterday's universal telephone service policies were intended solely to advance the nationwide deployment of voice service. I look forward to expanding the definition of universal telephone service. Widely deployed broadband and multimedia capabilities are essential to our continuing prosperity and global leadership. "Past policies have served us well. The perpetuation of the unified Bell System, the extensive use of internal cross-subsidies, rate-of-return regulation and the like helped produce the world's leading telecommunications network. Many of those policies, however, are as obsolete as yesterday's black rotary dial phone. What we will have in the future will be much more capable than what we have today. I am convinced that this vast improvement will, for the most part, not have to be subsidized; will be provided by dozens, if not hundreds, of companies; will be multimedia in configuration; and will improve significantly the society we live in." ================ end of text ========================= Patrick Townson