[rec.music.misc] What medium will be readable in 25 years?

barrett@jhunix.HCF.JHU.EDU (Dan Barrett) (04/26/91)

	Suppose you were going to put some audio recordings and computer
media into a "time box" for 25 years.  At the end of 25 years, people would
open the box and look at/listen to the stuff inside.

	In 25 years, what media are the most likely to be READABLE?
For music:
		cassette tape?
		vinyl record?
		DAT?
		VHS?
		reel-to-reel?
		CD?  (Not really an option, since we need to record our own
		      music on it.)

For computers:
		3.5" disk?  For which computer?
		5.25" disk?  
		9-track tape?  tar?
		Punch cards? :-)
		Optical disk?

	A naive answer would be "whatever is newest".  But the newest
technologies (optical disks, for example) have been around only a short time;
perhaps they'll be totally obsolete later, and the older stuff (reel-to-reel
tape) abundant enough to justify keeping tape-players/readers around.

	Not many 8" floppy disk drives are available for PC's these days;
only 10 short years ago....

	E-mail is preferred -- thanks!

                                                        Dan

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rbp@investor.pgh.pa.us (Bob Peirce #305) (05/02/91)

In article <8144@jhunix.HCF.JHU.EDU> barrett@jhunix.HCF.JHU.EDU (Dan Barrett) writes:
>
>	Suppose you were going to put some audio recordings and computer
>media into a "time box" for 25 years.  At the end of 25 years, people would
>open the box and look at/listen to the stuff inside.
>
>	In 25 years, what media are the most likely to be READABLE?
>For music:
>		cassette tape?
>		vinyl record?
>		DAT?
>		VHS?
>		reel-to-reel?
>		CD?  (Not really an option, since we need to record our own
>		      music on it.)

Vinyl, definitely, assuming reasonable temperatures.  I have vinyl much
older than that which still sounds like new.

Watch out for tape and similar media.  A lot of the record company
archives are in terrible shape.  Some of the worst problems seem to have
come from what was considered to be the best tape.  The oxide falls off.
The tape sticks together.  A strong magnetic field can wipe them, and so
on.  In spite of this, I have tape well over 25 years old which seems to
be okay, so it may work.

CDs could separate; some laser discs did early on -- pit rot.  Opticals
may have the same problem.  I don't know how they are constructed, but
if they are equal to CD or better, opticals and a NeXT would be an option.
Of course you have to assume there will be equipment to read them in 25
years!  Another vote for vinyl.

>For computers:
>		3.5" disk?  For which computer?
>		5.25" disk?
>		9-track tape?  tar?
>		Punch cards? :-)
>		Optical disk?

I vote for paper.  It can be read by hand if necessary.  Punch cards
lasted for extremely long periods of very heavy abuse.

As above, I would avoid magnetic media.  

CD Rom and optical discs are a possibility, as above.
-- 
Bob Peirce, Pittsburgh, PA        rbp@investor.pgh.pa.us         412-471-5320
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peter@ficc.ferranti.com (Peter da Silva) (05/06/91)

In article <1991May1.174841.3321@investor.pgh.pa.us> rbp@investor.pgh.pa.us (Bob Peirce #305) writes:
> CD Rom and optical discs are a possibility, as above.

CD-yes. Optical disk, maybe. Only if you're dealing with a mechanical write-
once thingy.

Read/write opticals are probably no better than magnetic... you want a non-
erasable medium.
-- 
Peter da Silva.  `-_-'  peter@ferranti.com
+1 713 274 5180.  'U`  "Have you hugged your wolf today?"

sven@cs.widener.edu (Sven Heinicke) (05/06/91)

In <1991May1.174841.3321@investor.pgh.pa.us>, rbp@investor.pgh.pa.us writes:
>In article <8144@jhunix.HCF.JHU.EDU> barrett@jhunix.HCF.JHU.EDU (Dan Barrett) writes:
>>	Suppose you were going to put some audio recordings and computer
>>media into a "time box" for 25 years.  At the end of 25 years, people would
>>open the box and look at/listen to the stuff inside.
>
>I vote for paper.  It can be read by hand if necessary.  Punch cards
>lasted for extremely long periods of very heavy abuse.

I don't know about paper either, a lot of books that I have that are
more then 10 years old are comming apart.  Is punch card paper made
from low acid paper?  If not they will not last to long either.

-- 
sven@cs.widener.edu                                  Widener CS system manager
Sven Mike Heinicke                                          and Student
(pssmheinicke@cyber.widener.edu (if you must))

wb8foz@mthvax.cs.miami.edu (David Lesher) (05/06/91)

I recall this discussion going on in the post nuclear holocaust book
_On_the_Beach. Seems to me they used etched glass, enclosed inside a
glass block. I don't think that would be very random accessible,
however, and I've never seen a WORM jukebox that could handle glass
block:-}
-- 
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& no one will talk to a host that's close............(305) 255-RTFM
Unless the host (that isn't close)......................pob 570-335
is busy, hung or dead....................................33257-0335

afoiani@nmsu.edu (Anthony "Tkil" Foiani) (05/06/91)

Hmm... When I read the original post, I interpreted it to mean
  "For what media will facilities be commonly available to read it 25
   years from now"
instead of 
  "What media will keep data non-corrupted over the time span of 25
   years?" 

The second has been hashed over already, and I thought I'd comment on
the first.

Many types of media commonly available 25 [or fewer] years ago can't
be read by a typical setup.  Audio 78rpms and 8-track, computer 8"
floppies, punch cards, punch tape, etc.

As for what current media will be in use in 25 years:

CD [12cm, 9cm(3in?), Laserdisc]
  I think these will still be around, despite the arrival of digital
  tapes.  Regardless of the encoding of a magnetic tape, there is
  [currently] an amount of wear on the media.  CD technology is non-
  contact, and the current production techniques result in stable
  discs that should last 50-100 years
DAT, Phillips' Digital Cassettes
  This technology, or some derivative, will survive.  The ability to
  record either parts of CDs or real events is necessary and
  desireable.  Although they wear out, they still have excellent sound
  quality for a relatively long time.
Write-once, Read/write [Magneto-Optical] CDs
  Only if the technology advances; it won't be in common usage for at
  least another 5-10 years for audio information.  May be around for a
  while, though.  
Vinyl
  There will probably be some die-hard audiophiles who have turn-
  tables, but not many.  Vinyl holds up well with age, but so do CDs
  pressed since the mid-80s, and the sound quality...

Well, that's about it for now... please comment.

I'm no type of engineer, btw.  heh.

Tony
--
Tony Foiani  a.k.a. Tkil  (afoiani@nmsu.edu) or (mcsajf@nmsuvm1.bitnet)
Supporting:  Unix / DOS / VMS / Macintosh / "What's this?"
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dtb@adpplz.UUCP (Tom Beach) (05/06/91)

In article <7DF+PQ+@cs.widener.edu>, sven@cs.widener.edu (Sven Heinicke) writes:
> In <1991May1.174841.3321@investor.pgh.pa.us>, rbp@investor.pgh.pa.us writes:

> >>	Suppose you were going to put some audio recordings and computer
> >>media into a "time box" for 25 years.  At the end of 25 years, people would
> >>open the box and look at/listen to the stuff inside.
> 
> I don't know about paper either, a lot of books that I have that are
> more then 10 years old are comming apart.  Is punch card paper made
> from low acid paper?  If not they will not last to long either.
> 
I still have boxes of computer punch cards from when I was in college.
That's WELL over 25 yrs ago, trust me! They're in pristine condition.
I have no idea where I could get them read today, but if I could find
a place with a card reader, they would read absolutely error free!!

Much of the popular press, read paperbacks, are printed on low cost
high acid content paper which as noted has trouble lasting 10 years,
much less 25. On the other hand, good quality hardbound books will last
>100 yrs with no special archival care needed.

From an archival standpoint there's NO doubt in my mind that punch
cards are a FAR FAR better choice than magnetic media!

Tom Beach

 ------------------------------------------------------------------------
|  Tom Beach : Sr Project Engineer : Mass Storage Technology             |
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davidsen@sixhub.UUCP (Wm E. Davidsen Jr) (05/07/91)

In article <7DF+PQ+@cs.widener.edu> sven@cs.widener.edu (Sven Heinicke) writes:

| I don't know about paper either, a lot of books that I have that are
| more then 10 years old are comming apart.  Is punch card paper made
| from low acid paper?  If not they will not last to long either.

  I wouldn't bet that you can get card readers in 25 years, but I have
card decks older than that which are still in fine condition. Let's
assume that if anyone cares you could read them with optical if you had
to. Now look at the durability of vinyl... I have records 60+ years old
which have only deteriorated by playing, but the vinyl they use today is
not really as good.

  I'd either go for paper or DAT+ECC. I have lots of tapes I made in the
50's which are still playable, if not free from defects. If you want
digital quality I'd go paper.
-- 
bill davidsen - davidsen@sixhub.uucp (uunet!crdgw1!sixhub!davidsen)
    sysop *IX BBS and Public Access UNIX
    moderator of comp.binaries.ibm.pc and 80386 mailing list
"Stupidity, like virtue, is its own reward" -me

brian@bjm.wimsey.bc.ca (Brian J. Murrell) (05/07/91)

rbp@investor.pgh.pa.us (Bob Peirce #305) writes:

>In article <8144@jhunix.HCF.JHU.EDU> barrett@jhunix.HCF.JHU.EDU (Dan Barrett) writes:
>>
>>	Suppose you were going to put some audio recordings and computer
>>media into a "time box" for 25 years.  At the end of 25 years, people would
>>open the box and look at/listen to the stuff inside.
>>
>>	In 25 years, what media are the most likely to be READABLE?
>>For music:
>>		cassette tape?
>>		vinyl record?
>>		DAT?
>>		VHS?
>>		reel-to-reel?
>>		CD?  (Not really an option, since we need to record our own
>>		      music on it.)
BTW what is Nostradamus' (Sp?) email address <:') ??
                                            /
                              a "dunce cap" maybe?
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_______ /__/ /__/  /  |/  | _________________________________________________

root@bjm.wimsey.bc.ca (0000-Admin(0000)) (05/07/91)

rbp@investor.pgh.pa.us (Bob Peirce #305) writes:

>In article <8144@jhunix.HCF.JHU.EDU> barrett@jhunix.HCF.JHU.EDU (Dan Barrett) writes:
>>
>>	Suppose you were going to put some audio recordings and computer
>>media into a "time box" for 25 years.  At the end of 25 years, people would
>>open the box and look at/listen to the stuff inside.
>>
>>	In 25 years, what media are the most likely to be READABLE?
>>For music:
>>		cassette tape?
>>		vinyl record?
>>		DAT?
>>		VHS?
>>		reel-to-reel?
>>		CD?  (Not really an option, since we need to record our own
>>		      music on it.)
BTW what is Nostradamus' (Sp?) email address <:') ??
                                            /
                              a "dunce cap" maybe?

sven@cs.widener.edu (Sven Heinicke) (05/08/91)

To: peter@ficc.ferranti.com
Subject: Re: What medium will be readable in 25 years?
Newsgroups: comp.misc,comp.periphs,rec.music.cd,rec.music.misc
In-Reply-To: <P73BU7@xds13.ferranti.com>
References: <8144@jhunix.HCF.JHU.EDU> <1991May1.174841.3321@investor.pgh.pa.us>
Organization: Widener CS Dept
Cc: 
Bcc: 

In article <P73BU7@xds13.ferranti.com> you write:
>In article <1991May1.174841.3321@investor.pgh.pa.us> rbp@investor.pgh.pa.us (Bob Peirce #305) writes:
>> CD Rom and optical discs are a possibility, as above.
>
>Read/write opticals are probably no better than magnetic... you want a non-
>erasable medium.

I find that tapestries might be a good solution if you don't need
exact binary code.  There are still left over from the middle ages.
And people are working on decoding dna from millions of years ago
using probility to detect mutations in the mitocondra (sp?), I think I
saw a PBS program talking about this, whitch I could remeber whitch
one.

-- 
sven@cs.widener.edu                                  Widener CS system manager
Sven Mike Heinicke                                          and Student
(pssmheinicke@cyber.widener.edu (if you must))
-- 
sven@cs.widener.edu                                  Widener CS system manager
Sven Mike Heinicke                                          and Student
(pssmheinicke@cyber.widener.edu (if you must))

new@ee.udel.edu (Darren New) (05/08/91)

There are two basic questions being asked here:
1) What medium will survive 25 years of storage?
2) What medium will have readers available in 25 years?

If you are most interested in (2), supplying your own reader
seems the simplest solution.  For example, put a cassette player
into the time capsule along with the tapes, and document the
I/O characteristics (power supply, output levels, etc) of it,
allowing somebody to build an interface if necessary.

If you are interested in (1), it seems that a capsule with
an inert gas could preserve paper well for 25 years easily.
After all, we still dig up papyrus from thousands of years
ago in deserts. 

I've seen articles on building barcode readers for pennies.  It seems
like barcode hardcopy would be the best solution for me, unless of
course you have no control over the environment where things will be
stored.

		     -- Darren
-- 
--- Darren New --- Grad Student --- CIS --- Univ. of Delaware ---
----- Network Protocols, Graphics, Programming Languages, FDTs -----
+=+ Nails work better than screws, when both are driven with hammers +=+

sampson@cod.NOSC.MIL (Charles H. Sampson) (05/08/91)

     Is _anybody_ reading rec.music.cd or even rec.music.misc interested
in this thread?

                                Charlie

mjd@saul.cis.upenn.edu (The Man Who Knew Too Much) (05/08/91)

    I'm not so sure how germane this is to the original question, but
perhaps it's worth poting out that we have thousands and thousands of
useless and intolerably dull contracts and bills of sale and legal
records and whatnot left over from the Babylonians (c. 1500 BC) written
in cuneiform on dried clay tablets, and that no particular care was
taken to preserve this mostly useless junk; it just stuck around of its
own accord.

    Now admittedly cuneiform is a low-density medium, but our
technology's improved a little, and we could probably get quite a few
bits on a slab of clay, or better yet, macro-defect-free cement.

--

   Nihil tam absurde dici potest, quod non dicatur ab aliquo philosophorum.
Mark-Jason Dominus 	  			    mjd@central.cis.upenn.edu 

smb@data.com (Steven M. Boker) (05/08/91)

In article <B+H+4FG@cs.widener.edu> sven@cs.widener.edu (Sven Heinicke) writes:
>In article <P73BU7@xds13.ferranti.com> you write:
>>In article <1991May1.174841.3321@investor.pgh.pa.us> rbp@investor.pgh.pa.us (Bob Peirce #305) writes:
>>> CD Rom and optical discs are a possibility, as above.
>>
>>Read/write opticals are probably no better than magnetic... you want a non-
>>erasable medium.
>

Back in 1985 I sat on a panel at COMDEX with a fellow from the 
Smithsonian Museum.  They asked themselves the very same question.  They
have masses of documents that are rapidly deteriorating and were looking
to preserve them for future generations.  The solution that they came
up with is a hardened, etched glass master that can be used to press
CD-ROM's.  They are committed to preserving the technology to read
these CD-ROM's for the next hundred years or so.  (Or until the budget
runs out :-} )

Steve

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bold@astroatc.UUCP (Jeff Beck) (05/09/91)

What medium?  Etch it in stone, just like cavemen did :-)

-- 
 ******************************************************************************
 * Jason Bold - Madison,WI= [(rutgers||ames)!uwvax||att!nicmad]!astroatc!bold *
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kls30@duts.ccc.amdahl.com (Kent L Shephard) (05/09/91)

In article <P73BU7@xds13.ferranti.com> peter@ficc.ferranti.com (Peter da Silva) writes:
>In article <1991May1.174841.3321@investor.pgh.pa.us> rbp@investor.pgh.pa.us (Bob Peirce #305) writes:
>> CD Rom and optical discs are a possibility, as above.
>
>CD-yes. Optical disk, maybe. Only if you're dealing with a mechanical write-
>once thingy.
>
>Read/write opticals are probably no better than magnetic... you want a non-
>erasable medium.

Not true.  You need both a magnetic fiedl and a laser of the correct
wavelenght to erase the medium.  I'd say it was as much better than
magnetic.  With magnetic media just presenting it to a strong electric
or magnetic field could destroy your data.

>-- 
>Peter da Silva.  `-_-'  peter@ferranti.com
>+1 713 274 5180.  'U`  "Have you hugged your wolf today?"


--
/*  -The opinions expressed are my own, not my employers.    */
/*      For I can only express my own opinions.              */
/*                                                           */
/*   Kent L. Shephard  : email - kls30@DUTS.ccc.amdahl.com   */

peter@ficc.ferranti.com (Peter da Silva) (05/10/91)

In article <7f3J02pY07aM01@JUTS.ccc.amdahl.com> kls30@DUTS.ccc.amdahl.com (Kent L. Shephard) writes:
> In article <P73BU7@xds13.ferranti.com> peter@ficc.ferranti.com (Peter da Silva) writes:
> >Read/write opticals are probably no better than magnetic... you want a non-
> >erasable medium.

> Not true.  You need both a magnetic fiedl and a laser of the correct
> wavelenght to erase the medium.

The problem isn't so much immediate erasure by an accidental occurrence (such
as nuclear war), but self-erasure over time. Mechanical storage methods have
a considerable advantage over those that involve molecular changes in the
medium.
-- 
Peter da Silva; Ferranti International Controls Corporation; +1 713 274 5180;
Sugar Land, TX  77487-5012;         `-_-' "Have you hugged your wolf, today?"

will@rins.ryukoku.ac.jp (will) (05/13/91)

In article <197B26C@xds13.ferranti.com>, peter@ficc.ferranti.com (Peter da Silva) writes:
>The problem isn't so much immediate erasure by an accidental occurrence (such
>as nuclear war), but self-erasure over time. Mechanical storage methods have
>a considerable advantage over those that involve molecular changes in the
>medium.
>

	Which brings to attention one simple little detail that everyone has
	over-looked.  Will there be someone around in 25 years to open it up
	and make everyone famous.  I think you guys should consider long term
	thinking just in case.

							Will....

roger@wet.UUCP (Roger Niclas) (05/15/91)

Another problem with mag tape stored for long periods is print-through, where
the magnetic field on one surface begins to magnetize adjacent surfaces. It's
not a problem when tapes are used periodically since the same areas never
line up exactly the same way after one rewinding as on the next, but on tapes
stored unused for long periods, the "image" degradation can be very noticeable.
 

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