jbass@polyslo.UUCP (John L Bass) (02/11/88)
>From: farren@gethen.UUCP (Michael J. Farren) >In article <1177@polyslo.UUCP> jbass@polyslo.UUCP (John L Bass) writes: >> >>It seems that some people could not follow the train of thought >>in my first posting ... here it is a little slower ... > >Most of the reply postings I saw seemed to follow your train of thought >perfectly well - they just didn't agree with you. You now seem to be >on your own dead-end line :-) I see you too are incapable of some critical thinking ... just smart replies .... > >> We have sold in the US something between 15 and 20 million PC's >> in the last few years. > >True. Bravo. Bravo .... How did you reach that conclusion ... accept my word for it???? > >> Based on some off-the-cuff population estimates I guess the >> US PC market installed base will stop about 20 million units. > >Untrue. I have worked in offices where the PC to personnel ratio was >greater than one. I have worked in offices where everyone had their >own PCs in the office, and most had them at home. I know many people >who own several PCs. Your estimate is NOT based on fact, but on >suppositions, which I believe to be wrong. See my replies to the other disbelievers ... I make my case clearly ... What DO YOU accept as a 1988/1989 market size???? How do you justify it in terms of ratios to the general population and to the working population???? As for computers in one place .... I have about a dozen here for myself ... all but three haven't been turned on in months. My MAC, Fortune UNIX box, and a cleints Compaq 386/20 are used daily. But after all I/we work in this industry creating the beasts .... I can also find without trouble several places where more than 50 people are employeed, that have a single computer in the accounting department. The exceptions don't prove anything ... you make a case that more than 1 in 10 americans will require a PC in the next year! > >> If we accept this market size of 20 million units > >But I do not, in any way, accept your market size offhand. You don't >provide any data on how you arrived at this figure, and without that >I can't comment on its accuracy. My feeling is that it is demonstrably >low - if we are approaching saturation, why is it that so many people >who don't have PCs are buying them now (I have at least 10 friends in >the PC market as I write this), and why is it that so many small businesses >are just now beginning to use them (due to plummeting prices), along >with other groups who, up until very recently, could not afford them? >Until you offer some rational reason why this should be so, and still >support your theory that the market is approaching saturation, I >reserve the right to believe that your theory holds little water. I presented how I got the numbers in the first posting -- I doubt they are more than 30% off either way. Your "feelings" don't cut it ... look around you ... go out on the streets and look at the average people waking by and figure out how many of them NEED a PC!!! Why are so many people buying them right now??? I think we are at the peak of "the dizzying growth and pell-mell embraching of PC technology" to quote Larry Campbell. And what a crash is to follow ... Rest assured ... both you and I have the right to believe each others theorys hold little water. I have offered the rational explanation for my postings in the various replies tonite .... you have not made any at all .... just an emotional appeal .... just try make a case for a strong market ... I don't think anybody can ... your signature line says it all ..... >Michael J. Farren | "INVESTIGATE your point of view, don't just >{ucbvax, uunet, hoptoad}! | dogmatize it! Reflect on it and re-evaluate > unisoft!gethen!farren | it. You may want to change your mind someday." >gethen!farren@lll-winken.llnl.gov ----- Tom Reingold, from alt.flame Have Fun, John Bass DMS Design PS. to all ... this has been a long nite ... pls forgive my typing and train of thought lapses in some of the replies ....