jbass@polyslo.UUCP (John L Bass) (03/20/88)
In article <400@lscvax.UUCP>, ram@lscvax.UUCP (Ric Messier) writes: > > You know, it's funny but I thought this topic was dead but wait a > minute, here we go again!! Strap yourselves in. One gets tired of attempting to prove the obvious ... sales of personal computers will make an abrupt down turn in the next 24 months, most likely in the next 3 to 9 months. The sales of PC's will drop between 25% and 70% of the current 12-15 million units per year volume in the short term and level out at between 4 and 7 million units per year with some growth in the market spurred by occasional technology advances. There is no current product which will force early obsolence of the typical 640K 8088 PC running PFS Write or Word Perfect as a typewriter replacement/augmentor. This typewriter replacement market accounts for the vast majority of PC systems purchased in the last few years -- and is the market that has saturated. I have spent over 300 hours researching similar markets and the distribution of jobs in the US in attempt to quantify the size of the US Market for personal computers. Every new way I have examined still projects the market size to be between 20 million and 30 million units for business users and a much smaller number of home systems. I have posted two conclusive deductive arguments for the market down turn, neither of which have been more than lightly rebutted .... only emotional replies of the nature "It can not happen". If this is the general level of critical thinking for computer professionals and management in the US computer industry, then I made a mistake in thinking these people would like to PLAN AHEAD rather than crash and burn. I posted the conclusion and arguments for free as a service to the industry ... and it was discarded as worthless free advice. At the request of a friend, the data and computer model are being compiled into a report that should be available during late April -- price $3,000.00. I stand by my prediction solidly .. the market place can not support the current 12-15 million units per year volume. For those who are so out of touch with the world, or find the critical thinking involved in data analysis beyond your mental grasps, I present my final argument: From USA TODAY, Wed March 16, 1988 page 1B read the box titled "Will auto boom go bust?" and article titled "Auto sales rise 6.3% this month" Note the annual sales volume of 14.7 million units per year for cars and light trucks. Note the average sales of about 13.5 million units over the last 5 years. Justify why computer shipments should stay at the same level .... nearly everyone needs a car ... few people need a computer ... Again I ask you to present these arguments to your management and ask what this means for your company's future and YOUR job should the market turn down abrubtly in the next year. I believe in planning ahead ... your may do as you wish ... but don't bother flaming at this article ... If you have some critcal analysis feel free to share it. Have Fun .. John Bass DMS Design (805) 541-1575 EMAIL: polyslo!dmsd!bass SMAIL: PO Box 12508, San Luis Obispo, CA 93406
kurt@tc.fluke.COM (Kurt Guntheroth) (03/23/88)
John Bass is MAD now. We have refused to believe that the sky is falling, even though he personally guarantees that he was hit in the head by a piece. > There is no current product which will force early obsolence of the > typical 640K 8088 PC running PFS Write or Word Perfect as a typewriter > replacement/augmentor. This typewriter replacement market accounts for > the vast majority of PC systems purchased in the last few years -- and is > the market that has saturated. This assertion is patently untrue. Anyone who has recently graduated from Wordstar to Microsoft Word, Page Maker or any of the various other modern document formatters and page layout systems can tell you that the 8088 poops out on page layout problems. Modern document processors do graphics, multiple columns, multiple fonts and point sizes. The graphics requirement alone will obsolete a significant PCs. Perhaps Mr Bass makes due with a dumb terminal connected to an aging mainframe, so the world looks more static to him. > I stand by my prediction solidly .. the market place can not support the > current 12-15 million units per year volume. For those who are so out of > touch with the world, or find the critical thinking involved in data analysis > beyond your mental grasps, I present my final argument: As evidence of this, our scholar cites that forum of business acedemia: > USA TODAY, Wed March 16, 1988 page 1B read the box titled "Will > auto boom go bust?" and article titled "Auto sales rise 6.3% this month" > Note the annual sales volume of 14.7 million units per year for > cars and light trucks. Note the average sales of about 13.5 million > units over the last 5 years. So if computer unit sales only continue to be as good as auto sales (a mature market with no quantum leaps in technology likely, and stable price/performance ratios), there will be NO slowdown. > Justify why computer shipments should stay at the same level .... > nearly everyone needs a car ... few people need a computer ... I bet most businesses own far more computers than cars or trucks, both in number and in dollar value. I also suspect the rate of replacement of computers will be higher. But that's where John and I part company. I want to add that I personally expect a modest recession sometime next year. This recession will likely cut into purchases of small computers, just as it will affect sales of all sorts of capital equipment. I don't see that computers will be singled out for an unreasonably large cut. Computers are as much part of the fabric of production in this country as milling machines, light trucks, and carbon paper. I also see the current production levels as a little higher than reasonable, maybe 5-15% too high, and I see the possibility of a temporary decline, concentrated in sales of older models. Finally it makes me uncomfortable that my management occasionally buys expensive reports on the business outlook, and therefore might waste $3K on this report, which they could ignore for free. Does anyone else but Mr Bass have any experience with Mr Bass's previous scholarly works or reputation as a prognosticator? I would hate to waste my time trying to get management to read a report I didn't believe in, from a person I had no knowledge in, and then find out he was not highly regarded by his peers. His report would certainly have more appeal if it appeared in the Harvard Business Review, Wall Street Journal, or some other known source. Put me down as one of those silly fools who never see the light. Kurt Guntheroth Senior Software Engineer John Fluke Mfg. Co., Inc. [These opinions are mine alone. In particular, Fluke management may] [also have been hit by a piece of sky and not seen fit to tell me. ]
roger_warren_tang@cup.portal.com (03/27/88)
I'd put more stock into these predictions if I had some more solid data to go with them. At best, we have "off the cuff back of the envelope" calculations. At worst. we've had idiocies like a work force of 90 million which doesn't include the under 15s, housewives, retirees we have to throw out (the fact is that the labor force is over 110 million and automatically excludes these). Please, more facts on PC/user ratios; some surveys butressed by solid methodology (the descriptions thrown out here make me wince in their shoddiness); etc.
john@anasaz.UUCP (John Moore) (04/02/88)
In article <1615@polyslo.UUCP# jbass@polyslo.UUCP (John L Bass) writes:
#There is no current product which will force early obsolence of the
#typical 640K 8088 PC running PFS Write or Word Perfect as a typewriter
#replacement/augmentor. This typewriter replacement market accounts for
#the vast majority of PC systems purchased in the last few years -- and is
#the market that has saturated.
I missed the early postings - we were disconnected from the net for a
bit. However, I do have one area I wonder if you researched: PC's as
mini's. My company, and many others, are using PC's where previously
mini's or custom controllers would be used. For example, in store
Point of Sale systems, traditionally a dedicated controller is used
for each box. We are finding these being replaced by PC's. There seem
to be a lot of places where this sort of PC use is happening. Likewise,
we see PC's replacing minicomputers as servers and concentrators. Did
you include these numbers? I realize that they are likely much smaller
than the typewriter replacement number, and that this alone doesn't
come close to invalidating your thesis. I'm just curious about the numbers.
--
John Moore (NJ7E) hao!noao!mcdsun!nud!anasaz!john
(602) 870-3330 (day or evening)
The opinions expressed here are obviously not mine, so they must be
someone else's.