henry@utzoo.UUCP (Henry Spencer) (10/19/86)
Spacelab cutbacks result in several hundred layoffs and reassignments; more
are likely to follow.
Former White House science advisor George Keyworth slams National Commission
on Space report as unfocussed and lacking a clear agenda. He charges that
the commission put too much emphasis on consensus proposals to do everything,
forfeiting its possible impact by asking for too much. [Personal opinion:
I fear he is right. -- HS]
SDI in-space experiment of Sept 5 was a fairly complete success. Sensors
on the modified Delta second stage (including the first laser radar flown
in space) observed the satellite during deployment and after some orbit
changes. They also saw the launch of an Aries (which is a Minuteman second
stage) from White Sands. Finally, the satellite, using the radar system
from a Phoenix long-range air-to-air missile, homed on and destroyed the
second stage; apparently it hit within a foot of the intended impact point.
Details are classified, but apparently the sensors generally worked better
than expected.
The next SDI launch will be a Delta from KSC scheduled for Nov 1987, although
the schedule depends on SDI's uncertain budget. This one is expected to
include a relay-mirror experiment to assess the use of ground-based lasers
aimed via orbiting mirrors. There will be two more SDI Deltas following
that. Later, larger SDI payloads will be launched by the Shuttle. These
will include a neutral-particle-beam satellite for experiments in tracking
and discrimination (prime contractor choice next year, launch maybe 1990),
the Space Surveillance and Tracking Satellite carrying new-technology
sensors for in-space tracking and ICBM detection (launch maybe 1990), and
the Boost Surveillance and Tracking Satellite for experimental tracking
of missile plumes lower in the atmosphere (launch maybe 1991). All of the
dates are subject to change depending on SDI's near-term budgets.
[Note to those violently opposed to SDI: these items are legitimate space
news, even though they happen to relate to a program you dislike. -- HS]
As you might expect from the above, the Delta launch on Sept 5 was a success.
Great care was taken, including referring a doubtful decision on some missed
test procedures all the way up to Fletcher.
On the same day, NASA decided to buy three more Deltas to supplement the
two already in inventory, and may buy yet another. Current assignments
are:
Delta 179 GOES-H weather satellite, 20 Nov 1986.
Delta 182 Palapa comsat for Indonesia, 19 March 1987.
Delta 181 SDI. 1987.
Delta 183 SDI. 1988.
Delta 184 Either SDI or the Cosmic Background Explorer, 1989.
Explorer launch would be from Vandenberg and would
require buying Delta 185 for another SDI payload.
NASA is considering buying an Atlas-Centaur to launch the German Rosat
X-ray sky-survey satellite in late 1989. Rosat was originally scheduled
to launch last month on shuttle 71O. Existing Atlas-Centaur schedule calls
for launches Nov 1986, Feb 1987, and May 1987 carrying Navy comsats.
NASA plans to change Delta storage procedures to keep the first stage in
a controlled temperature/humidity environment. Second stages are already
stored that way.
Aerojet TechSystems gets a small USAF contract for a low-thrust rocket system
intended for moving large, fragile structures from low orbit to Clarke orbit.
NASA task force reviewing Space Station design proposes five redesign options
to address problems of cost, excessive EVA requirements for assembly, and
launch constraints. They are: (1) enlarge the tunnels and nodes connecting
the pressurized modules, using the extra volume to hold equipment that would
otherwise be outside; (2) changes in assembly sequence; (3) move equipment
from the manned station to the unmanned platforms (this would reduce external
equipment on the station and help with Congressional demands for early science
return, but is likely to be rejected because it doesn't help the transport
problems); (4) use of expendables for assembly and resupply; (5) changes to
the polar-orbiting platform [details unspecified]. This is the preliminary
list, with a definitive list going up to Phillips and Fletcher in mid-Sept.
A quick decision is expected due to the desire to get things on track again
before Congress recesses.
Texas congressmen happy over a settlement of the Johnson/Marshall dispute
over responsibility for the habitability module. Johnson manages, Marshall
contractor builds. If this sounds awfully similar to what NASA intended to
do anyway, and the Texan happiness seems odd to you, you're right.
DoD is unhappy about vulnerability of its comsats to jamming, with the
"Captain Midnight" commercial-comsat case as an unhappy example. It would
need better equipment, though. DSCS and other SHF-band satellites have
antennas capable of nulling out jammers, providing some protection. The
EHF Milstar system scheduled for the 1990s will be quite difficult (not
impossible) to jam.
The military is also unhappy about the increasing use of satellite imagery,
notably from Spot, by the news media. They don't like civilians looking
over their shoulders, especially when the opposition might be watching the
news too. They don't have much choice, though. They expect China and Japan
to join France in launching high-resolution satellites, and also expect a
Spot successor with 1-m resolution.
DoD annual launch schedule in the 1990s will probably be four Titan 2s,
five or six Medium Launch Vehicles, and five or six Titan 4s.
NASA Office of Space Science and Applications fingers 8 science satellites
that should be moved to expendables. Prominently, the Cosmic Background
Explorer should launch in 1989; a NASA official claims that $45-50M is in
the FY1988 budget for a Delta for it (the FY1988 budget went to the
Office of Mismanagement and Bean-counting in September, but won't be public
until January). The names of the other seven will be released shortly.
Eight NOAA satellites are also recommended for transfer to expendables in
the report by Burton Edelson, NASA assoc. admin. for space science. He
says Fletcher supports launching the Explorer on an expendable, but wants
the money to come out of the science budget. Edelson says he would do this
on a one-time basis to get a mixed-fleet strategy started, but would need
more money to do it on a continuing basis; historically the science budget
buys the spacecraft, mission operations, and data analysis, while the
spaceflight budget buys the launch. The report looked at 146 missions and
determined that 126 needed the shuttle. 12 of the remainder should remain
on the shuttle for various reasons, leaving the 8.
Two of the 12 are Galileo and Ulysses; Edelson says that the plan for
launching these with Shuttle/IUS is uncertain, because the shuttle will have
to meet very narrow launch windows [Brief editorial: my, it sure is knock-
the-shuttle time, isn't it? Shuttle missions have met narrow windows in
the past, and expendables have missed them. -- HS], new shuttle safety
standards may be incompatible with the isotope generators, and the IUS may
not be ready in time.
The 8 NOAA satellites include polar weather satellites and next-generation
GOES satellites. NOAA has asked the USAF for two Titan 4s for the new
GOESs; apparently the USAF sees no problem provided NOAA can fork over the
cash, about $250M each. [Ah, those cheap expendables! -- HS]
The mixed-fleet study isn't yet finished; yet to come are cost comparisons,
including the cost of mission delays. "Delay is not free. It's costing us
$7M a month to delay the Hubble Space Telescope."
Continuing difficulties with scientific access to space are likely for the
next few years. The plan now is for 63 shuttle flights between now and
1992, which is 80 fewer than the old plan. Space science and applications
was expecting 50, and now will have 19 at most. 11 Spacelab missions are
being canned, as are many smaller missions like 8-10 Materials Science
Labs and a dozen Spartans. Average delay for free-flyers is 30 months, for
attached payloads 40 or more.
Edelson is urging new starts despite the 51L mess and tight budgets, to
keep the science program alive. Top priorities are the Global Geospace
Science satellite (part of the International Solar Terrestrial Physics
program) and the High Resolution Solar Observatory (a scaled-down version
of the Solar Optical Telescope), and Edelson wants starts on both in FY88.
The space-science office has offered to slip the launch dates of Mars
Observer, the Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite, and the Advanced
Communications Technology Satellite in order to get funding to cover new
starts for GGS and HRSO and to pay launch-delay bills.
Senate Appropriations defense subcommittee proposes to put $3G in the
FY87 defence budget to replace Challenger. Despite the DoD funding, NASA
would operate the new orbiter. NASA could sign next year to get contractors
going on the replacement, although actual spending would be delayed.
NASA awards short-term contracts to five firms to study major revisions
to the shuttle SRBs.
Martin Marietta is renovating Cape Canaveral Pad 41 for the Titan 4. The
pad was last used to launch the Voyagers in 1977.
Fletcher says White House needs a permanent space advisory staff, to make
major planning decisions without bureaucratic bickering. He says the
Senior Interagency Group for Space's decision-making process tends to focus
on interagency turf battles rather than policymaking. SIG-Space does not
have any full-time staff of its own. In the 60s and 70s, space policy was
set by NASA, DoD, and the White House. Now Commerce, Transportation, OMB,
White House economic-advisory groups, Reagan's own staff, and yet other
peripherally-involved agencies all make proposals, often without much
understanding of the implications. Fletcher is also unhappy about micro-
management by Congress.
Ron McNair's widow has filed suit against Morton Thiokol, charging negligence
resulting in her husband's death. Specifically, it charges that the SRB
joint design was basically defective, that MT failed to warn the astronauts
about it, and that MT also failed to warn them about the cold-weather hazard
debate the night before the launch. NASA was not named in the suit, although
McNair and her lawyers have not ruled out action against NASA. More suits
against MT are expected. If the suits reach court, MT is virtually certain
to adopt the "government contractor" defense, citing laws that forbid suing
manufacturers over equipment that was accepted by the government as meeting
specs.
Fletcher is starting some internal planning efforts, notably looking at
goals after the Space Station. Sally Ride will coordinate the results as
an assistant to Fletcher. Some output is expected by spring. One reason
to think hard about the next step is that the Soviets may already have it
well underway by the time the Space Station is up. Fletcher: "The
important thing about Mir is not its size but its multiple docking ports.
They can put together a space station now not too different from what we
are going to have in 1994. It is quite clear that by the time we get
through with our space station, they may be on their way to the next step..."
[Note that Skylab had multiple docking ports, never used. Sigh. -- HS]
--
Henry Spencer @ U of Toronto Zoology
{allegra,ihnp4,decvax,pyramid}!utzoo!henry