[sci.space.shuttle] Predictions for viewing ATLANTIS

kd2bd@ka2qhd.UUCP ( Wall Township NJ) (12/04/88)

Well, Shuttle ATLANTIS was launched on Friday morning shortly after
9:30 AM EST on a Department of Defense mission. One of the goals of
this mission will be to deploy a KH-12 Soviet spy satellite into an
eliptical orbit that will allow it to cover 80% of the Soviet Union.

There are many who believe that ATLANTIS will be visible over North
America on this flight. Since it is a DoD mission, no orbital data
has been made available to the public.

Orbital data for ATLANTIS has been formulated here at KD2BD.
The data is based solely on assumptions and knowing the time of launch.
The following data is believed to closely match the orbit of ATLANTIS:

ORBITAL INCLINATION    : 57 Degrees
ORBITAL ALTITUDE       : 340 Kilometers
NODAL PERIOD           : 91.2 minutes/orbit
LONGITUDINAL INCREMENT : 23.15 degrees west/orbit
SEMI-MAJOR AXIS        : 6711 Kilometers
ORBITAL VELOCITY       : 17,234 miles/hour
REFERENCE ORBIT        : 14:15 UTC at 100 degrees west (Orbit 0)

From this information, the following orbital predictions have been made.
These are the times when I believe ATLANTIS will be visible over our area.

On Sunday 04Dec88: From 4:25 -to- 4:40 PM. It will rise in the Northwest,
                   pass towards the south, and set towards the Southeast.
On Monday 05Dec88: From 4:45 -to- 5:05 PM. It will rise in the West-Northwest,
                   pass towards the south, and set towards the South-Southeast.

The KH-12 spy satellite is rumored to be quite large and could also be
visible as it is deployed from ATLANTIS. This could make for SPECTACULAR
viewing if the weather is clear.

If visible, ATLANTIS will appear as a fast moving "star" growing in brilliance
as it moves from West to East. It will be the brightest object in the
sky, and can be seen without the aid of a telescope or binoculars.

I recommend allowing several minutes (+/-) from the above predictions to allow
for small errors. The directions may be different (it may cross the North,
rather than the South, BUT IT WILL BE VISIBLE ON THE DAYS LISTED).

If you succeed in seeing ATLANTIS, drop me a note on NN2Z-4. I would
appreciate hearing about your observations. Don't forget to include the
day(s) and time(s) you viewed the Shuttle.

Good Luck and 73!   de John  KD2BD @ NN2Z

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karn@ka9q.bellcore.com (Phil Karn) (12/05/88)

The estimates I've seen for the altitude of Atlantis's orbit (and that of
its payload) range from 340 km (just above a standard shuttle orbit) up to
458 km (the eleset posted by Rich, snowdog@athena.mit.edu). I think the
higher altitude is more likely, considering that the lifetime of a payload
in the lower orbit would be measured in weeks or months. (Rich also reports
fairly consistent sightings based on his elements, so that tends to confirm
the 458 km figure ).

Even at this altitude, an orbit isn't particularly long-lived. With the
currently increasing levels of solar activity, I wouldn't expect an
unboosted payload in this orbit to last more than a couple of years at the
most.

Given the reported cost of this spacecraft, I suspect that it has some sort
of onboard boost system.  It's also quite likely that we'll be seeing some
return visits by future shuttle missions for refueling.  It should be fairly
easy to tell when this happens, since any future launch would have to match
the satellite's orbital plane.

Phil

sw@whuts.ATT.COM (WARMINK) (12/06/88)

In article <699@ka2qhd.UUCP>, kd2bd@ka2qhd.UUCP ( Wall Township NJ) writes:
> ............................................... One of the goals of
> this mission will be to deploy a KH-12 Soviet spy satellite into an
                                         ^^^^^^

I knew the Soviets were offering to launch US satellites, but the US
launching a Soviet one....?        :-)

(There are plenty of other places around the world where this spy satellite
might want to have a look - not just the Soviet Union.)

-- 
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   There are lies, damned lies           |  Stuart Warmink, Interface Systems
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