colwell@mfci.UUCP (Robert Colwell) (04/13/89)
Front page news in NY Times last weekend: NASA now estimates odds of losing another shuttle are 1 in 78 per launch. I guess they must have tweaked a few reliability models to account for this change from 1 in 100,000 down to 1 in 78 :-). It's also worth noting how close this new estimate is to what Richard Feynmann came up with. The article says these new odds are causing major head-holding within NASA, because they change the predicted likelihood of another lost shuttle in this century from "not gonna happen" to highly likely, maybe even two more lost. Bob Colwell ..!uunet!mfci!colwell Multiflow Computer or colwell@multiflow.com 175 N. Main St. Branford, CT 06405 203-488-6090
henry@utzoo.uucp (Henry Spencer) (04/15/89)
In article <773@m3.mfci.UUCP> colwell@mfci.UUCP (Robert Colwell) writes: >Front page news in NY Times last weekend: NASA now estimates odds of losing >another shuttle are 1 in 78 per launch... >... The article says these new odds are causing >major head-holding within NASA, because they change the predicted likelihood >of another lost shuttle in this century from "not gonna happen" to highly >likely, maybe even two more lost. Sigh, some people (in NASA) simply don't listen when told. Quite apart from warnings from individual observers like Feynman, the NRC report on attainable shuttle launch frequencies was most explicit in saying that further losses are inevitable and must be prepared for (specifically, by maintaining low-rate orbiter production). -- Welcome to Mars! Your | Henry Spencer at U of Toronto Zoology passport and visa, comrade? | uunet!attcan!utzoo!henry henry@zoo.toronto.edu