attila@breeze.bellcore.com (04/16/91)
In article <1991Apr15.162605.2593@necsy.it> beg@necsy.it (Beghini Giorgio) writes: > Hi, > > Does anyone know the report:" DBMS market Outlook: the voyage to 1995" ? > This report is produced by Gartner Group and it discusses about the > reletional database management systems future. > > Thanks. YOu might like to know what technical geniuses work at Gartner. At a previous job --technology assesment and prediction-- my employer use to get Gartner junk mail and paid $150,000 for the privilege of the secret number to their consultants. Two experiences: In one report around 1987 --Amdahl was comming on strong-- Gartner predicted that by 1990 IBM will put *all* of MVS *microcode* to: make it run faster, to lock out the plug compatibles. :-) When I pointed out to my boss that this is nonsense after a long argument they divulged the Garner secret number so that I should "verify" the prediction. Sure enough the Gartner baboon said "yes" we know everything and it shall be so. So my employer went ahead and purchased IBM boxes even the Amdahl would have been faster and cheaper --but not microcode compatible. Another one: About the same time (1987) I was already working with a beta copy of a Semantic DBMS and knew about all the OODBMS prototypes. So I predicted that we will see first commercial releases within 2-3 years. I requisitioned small sum to buy into one and play with it. About that time, Gartner predicted that DB2 will save the universe. The boss --pointing to the words of the wise-- claimed that object-oriented-whatcha-me-call-its don't matter, but if I really think they are hot, call Gartner on the secret number and ask for a special report. Well, it took Gartner a four weeks to decide that they never heard of object-oriented-whatcha-me-call-its. So we asked for a second report. Eight additional weeks later they determined that object-oriented-DBMS have no future because relational technology can solve all database problems and that the next IBM mainframe will make them go so fast to equal current (1987) IMS performance. The words of the wise. :-) Leslie A. Walko NOt a consultant, just a humble researcher Bell Communications Research Database and Systems Research Group Morristown, NJ attila@bellcore.com