alexis@ccnysci.UUCP (Alexis Rosen) (04/16/89)
What If They Gave A Trade Show And Nobody Came?
-or-
The MacDex Show Report
I attended Comdex/MacDex Monday and Tuesday of last week. While I had a
good time, I would not recommend that anyone attend this show in the
future. It probably won't be an issue, though, since I can't imagine
that the Interface Group (who run the 'dexes) will want to lose the kind
of money they must have lost this time.
It's too bad they couldn't draw a larger audience. The panels at MacDex
were, on the average, far superior to equivalent panels at the other two
Mac trade shows. The drawback was the lack of an audience. The two
panels I was on had total attendances of two and three. At that, we did
markedly better than the poor guy who came after my first session - His
total attendance was minus one... When nobody showed up, the woman who
was supposed to run his slides just walked out!
The MacDex show floor was just as deserted. In fact, the only peace and
quiet to be had in all of Comdex was in the MacDex area. They only
managed to sell about thirty booths, and half of the vendors didn't even
bother to come. There were three interesting things there, and lots of
interesting rumors:
Reese Jones and his cohorts from Farallon was showing the new Timbuktu
3.0, which features the same file-transfer capabilities that Timbuktu
Remote has. Even better, they were showing the new multi-user document
markup software they're working on. It looks about ready for prime time,
and in concert with QuickMail or Timbuktu it makes for one of the first
useful "groupware" programs on the Mac.
Touch was showing their OSI connectivity software for the Mac. I
haven't followed this closely in the past, but it will become more and
more important over the next five years.
More companies are building complete wiring systems for AppleTalk
networks. One company (unfortunately, I can't find their name in my
notes) now sells a clever system for wiring twisted-pair stars. If you
use LocalTalk, they sell baluns that replace LocalTalk boxes for $30.
You can also use what you already have. The big news is their patch
panel, which replaces the typical punchdown block. It's neater, easier,
and less likely to be the cause of signal problems on your net. If you
want an active star, you can put a Farallon star controller behind it.
This may well become the equipment of choice for twisted-pair EtherTalk
nets. Of course, I want to see one working (especially with EtherTalk),
but it looks very good. I'll try to track down their name and post it.
RUMORS:
The high-speed AppleTalk networking market is about to heat up in a big
way. In addition to the three brands of TokenTalk cards that have been
written about in the weeklies, I hear that there is one which should be
ready for shipping in less than a month. Prices are supposed to be
competitive with the PC market (!) and the card is 32-bit, though
apparently not a NuBus master.
Even more important, there is an EtherTalk card coming in two weeks, at
MacWorld, which will retail for $295. If this is true, this will cause
a *major* upheaval in the network market. At that price, you can forget
about FlashTalk and DaynaTalk, and the potential for an ArcTalk market
dries up. But the truly significant effect will be that non-LocalTalk/
PhoneNet installations will suddenly become a major factor in Macintosh
networking. Apple will have to pay far more attention to this market
than they have so far, because the price of the technology will suddenly
be attractive even for small network installations.
At $295, EtherNet becomes as cheap (or cheaper) on a Mac as it is on a
PC. This is so highly improbable that I would normally doubt such a
rumor. Nevertheless, the person who told me seems quite reliable, and
he was sure enough to name the location and one of the owners of the
company. We'll see...
In general, the market for high-speed NICs for the Mac has been
underpopulated and overpriced. All of a sudden, that's changing in a
big way. There are three different SCSI EtherTalk adaptors. At least
five companies sell EtherTalk boards now, with at least three more due
in the next 60 days. At least three companies are working on TokenTalk
boards for release in the next 90 days. And someone is even selling an
ArcTalk adaptor.
The high-speed Mac IIx is coming sooner than we think. Motorola is
apparently finally getting the yield that it needs on the high-speed
'030s to sell to Apple at a price Apple is willing to buy at. Some
people were saying that it would be announced at the April MacWorld, but
I don't buy that. June or August (or maybe both) are more likely.
Orchid blew through their stock of cache boards four times faster than
they thought they would, so they don't have any more product to sell
until the 28th. (This is actually not a rumor, I checked and it's
true.) This should come as no surprise, since their board is cheap and
effective. Every Mac II should have one (mine do!).
---
Comdex itself had many more Macintoshes and Mac-related products than
did MacDex, and was far more interesting. One of my favorite programs,
FoxBase, was being publicly shown in version 2.0 for the first time.
Many companies which sell products for both 'x86s and Macs showed their
Mac products in their Comdex booths.
The most interesting rumor I heard at the show had nothing to do with
forthcoming products. Rather, it had to do with Apple. Apparently,
Apple told the Interface Group that it felt it was time for Macs to take
their place next to other computers, and not be segregated out,
relegated to a dark corner of one room. As long as the I.G. holds
separate MacDexes, Apple will NOT exhibit at Comdex.
If this is true, it's one of the few intelligent marketing decisions
Apple has made in the last several years. Not only that, but it shows
some backbone. Maybe there is hope for Apple after all.
Next week (if I have time): MBC&E New York Show Report.
----
Alexis Rosen
alexis@ccnysci.{uucp,bitnet}
alexis@rascal.ics.utexas.edu