thad@cup.portal.com (Thad P Floryan) (07/01/89)
Two rather unpleasant items concerning CBM in the news recently ... San Jose (CA) Mercury News, Thursday, 29-June-1989, BUSINESS section page 3: " COMMODORE STOCK FALLS: Commodore International Ltd.'s stock price plummeted 21 percent Wednesday at news that the computer company might report its first quarterly loss in three years. It closed down $3.75 to $14 in heavy trading. West Chester, Pa-based Commodore said it expected earnings for its fourth quarter ending Friday to range "from a modest profit to a modest loss," depending on actual sales. Sales also are expected to be below the $215 million reported in the fourth quarter of 1988, the firm said. " San Francisco Chronicle, Friday, 30-June-1989, BUSINESS section page 2: " A-SQUARED SYSTEMS WINS AWARD A-Squared Systems, an Oakland (CA) maker of personal computer devices, said it won an award worth more than $890,000 against Commodore-Amiga Inc. and Commodore Business Machines. The award, which was given by arbitrators and confirmed by Santa Clara County (CA) Superior Court, was for Commodore's failure to adequately market A-Squared's "LIVE" video-imaging device. "
papa@pollux.usc.edu (Marco Papa) (07/02/89)
In article <20035@cup.portal.com> thad@cup.portal.com (Thad P Floryan) writes: >San Jose (CA) Mercury News, Thursday, 29-June-1989, BUSINESS section page 3: > >" COMMODORE STOCK FALLS: Commodore International Ltd.'s stock price > plummeted 21 percent Wednesday at news that the computer company > might report its first quarterly loss in three years. The Wall Street Journal made clear that Commodore problems are not just CBM's but of all US companies that have most of their earnings from foreing countries and of technology stocks in particular. The strong dollar penalizes companies like CBM, whose 70% earnings come from Europe. The WSJ said the following in the Friday issue, after the biggest nose dive of the DJIA since the October 1987 crash: "Wednesday, a negative earning forecast by Commodore International caused a major reassessment about the technology sector. Now money managers are afraid that other industrial groups will follow technology into a slump, so they have been readjusting portfolios in preparation for a rough ride in stocks. [...] Technology stocks were among the weakest performers as investors responded to Amdahl's projection that second quarter earnings would be down 25% to 30% .. Amdahl plummeted 3 1/2 to 16 5/8 ... International Business Machines retreated 2 3/8 to 11 1/2, DEC dropped 2 to 92 3/8, Compaq Computer skidded 3 to 89 7/8, Hewlett-Packard fell 1 1/2 to 51 5/8, Cray Reaserch lost 1 3/4 to 49 1/8, and Tandem Computers fell 3/4 to 16 7/8." Note also that both Sun Microsystems and Apple Computers have had their stock plummet in the past weeks for lowest than expected earnings [ Apple finished at 40 5/8, down 1 1/8; Sun closed at 16 5/8, down 3/8 after a BIG dive during the previous weeks]. You don't need a money manager to believe that this is certainly the time to stay away from "technology" stocks. -- Marco Papa 'Doc' -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-= uucp:...!pollux!papa BIX:papa ARPAnet:pollux!papa@oberon.usc.edu "There's Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Diga and Caligari!" -- Rick Unland -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
davids@utstat.uucp (David Scollnik) (07/02/89)
In article <18203@usc.edu> papa@pollux.usc.edu (Marco Papa) suggests ...
) You don't need a money manager to believe that this is certainly the
) time to stay away from "technology" stocks.
)
) -- Marco Papa 'Doc'
)-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
Au Contraire, my dear Sir !!!
If one is seeking long term portfolio gains, now may well be the
time to invest ... Indeed, if North American high tech companies
are not performing admirably on the exchanges, this fact may well
promote takeover bids on the part of overseas ( ie. japanese )
investors.
In turn, said takeover bids may well buoy up the stock of the
aforementioned "failing" North American high tech company
( especially in the case of a smaller company ).
I'm not just talking through my hat, either ... this phenomenon
has occurred several times on the Toronto Stock Exchange in the
last few months ( and no doubt on the Dow Jones and other exchanges,
as well ).
Of course, this is not to say that investment in high tech firms
is not "risky" ... but then again, it usually always is !!
--
David P.M. Scollnik | UUCP: utstat!davids
University of Toronto | bitnet: davids@utstat.utoronto
Deptartment of Statistics | arpa: davids@utstat.toronto.edu
(hi mom !!!)cmcmanis%pepper@Sun.COM (Chuck McManis) (07/07/89)
In article <20035@cup.portal.com> thad@cup.portal.com (Thad P Floryan) writes: >Two rather unpleasant items concerning CBM in the news recently ... Actually, they aren't all that bad. In fact, for the US market they are probably good news. >San Jose (CA) Mercury News, Thursday, 29-June-1989, BUSINESS section page 3: >" COMMODORE STOCK FALLS: Commodore International Ltd.'s stock price > plummeted 21 percent Wednesday at news that the computer company > might report its first quarterly loss in three years. It closed > down $3.75 to $14 in heavy trading. West Chester, Pa-based Commodore > said it expected earnings for its fourth quarter ending Friday to range > "from a modest profit to a modest loss," depending on actual sales. > Sales also are expected to be below the $215 million reported in the > fourth quarter of 1988, the firm said. >" Hmmm, lose a little money might they? Joining all the other computer companies in the world on this count. And like the other companies there are some clearly silly reasons for this. Commodore's sillest move was to use the currency advantage to sell Amigas in Germany below cost. The reason this was stupid was that when the currencies reversed (the German Mark got stronger) the margins went out of their German sales (which are significant) and thus went out of their sales period. Whoops, there goes the revenue. The good news is that this 8 billion dollar PC marketplace in the US is opening up again. Yup, both Apple and IBM did something they should never have done, fragment the market and build incompatible PCs. By pushing the PS/2 and IIC[X], IBM and Apple have said quite clearly to the marketplace that the 16 bit market is "up for grabs" just like the 8 bit market was when Commodore became very successful with the C-64. And Commodore is uniquely positioned to capitalize on this market in the same way the C-64 capitalized on the 8 bit market. It is the "Let's buy it for the games, and see what else is available for it." syndrome. Why is this good? Because people like a Mac using friend of mine did just that, bought one to play games on. After that I suggested to him that if he used it as his dial up terminal he could use his Mac at the same time. (Which he did) And then for a couple of hundred dollars he could get a C compiler and at least do a syntax check on his code while his Mac was busy. And what do you know, he uses the Mac less and less. Why? Because all of the interesting stuff for him is going on in Color on the Mac II and he only has a Mac SE. But the Amiga has color, and is quick too. So the good news is that the good old US market might finally get the proper attention of CBM. And it will be earnest, we want to sell computers to the people attention, rather than the sort of mismash we've seen in the past. Copperman had a lot of good things to say at the DevCon, but so did Max Toy. The keys are consistency and follow through, and there is nothing like having the CEO of the holding company (CIL) looking for new markets to stimulate innovative thinking. Finally, now you too can get some stock and make a few bucks over the next couple of years. >San Francisco Chronicle, Friday, 30-June-1989, BUSINESS section page 2: > >" A-SQUARED SYSTEMS WINS AWARD > > A-Squared Systems, an Oakland (CA) maker of personal computer devices, > said it won an award worth more than $890,000 against Commodore-Amiga > Inc. and Commodore Business Machines. The award, which was given by > arbitrators and confirmed by Santa Clara County (CA) Superior Court, > was for Commodore's failure to adequately market A-Squared's "LIVE" > video-imaging device. >" This is even better news, because not only did A-Squared get screwed originally, but also this seemed to be "business as usual" for CBM. What we can hope will be gained by this experience at Commodore Business Machines is to not to enter into agreements that they aren't 100% comitted to following through on. Fortunately, the current staff at CBM seems to have learned this lesson. Thats good. And when a child is bad you spank it, and when a corporation is bad to take away some of its profits. Hopefully, they will be a better company because of this. --Chuck McManis uucp: {anywhere}!sun!cmcmanis BIX: cmcmanis ARPAnet: cmcmanis@sun.com These opinions are my own and no one elses, but you knew that didn't you. "A most excellent barbarian ... Genghis Kahn!"