[sci.misc] Climate change

news@cit-vax.Caltech.Edu (Usenet netnews) (01/08/87)

Organization : California Instititute of Technology
Keywords: Hadley cell clouds rain forests
From: myers@hobiecat.Caltech.Edu (Bob Myers)
Path: hobiecat!myers

In article <282@sri-arpa.ARPA> TSOMMER%IRLEARN.BITNET@WISCVM.WISC.EDU writes:
>(This is not necessarily a physics question but here goes )

Followup to sci.misc.

>Does anyone know if the climatic effect of loss of most of the Earth's
>equatorial rain forest has been calculated or even studied ?  I ask
>this question as I have heard it said that at the present rate, only 15 %
>approximately of it will remain in 15 years. Since a large amount of cloud
>covers these regions

The reason the rain forests are disappearing is because of human
created deforestation, not lack of cloud cover. Nor is there any
clear direct relationship between the cloud cover and the rain forest.
(I don't see how cutting down trees directly affects the clouds
in the area.)

>and helps cool the planet in these regions (i.e. there
>would be a higher net heating if they were not there, )  and thus if they
>were destroyed would this affect cloud cover and hence the "Hadley Cells" ?
>(The Hadley cells are the currents of air circulating from the equatorial
>regions to the tropics of both hemispheres and back again )

The equatorial cloud cover is caused by the Hadley cell circulation.
The air is rises at the equator, and the water vapor condenses out
into clouds. I don't want to go into the thermo, but it does.

Similarly, the downflow of the Hadley cell circulation in the subtropics
is very dry (most of the world's major deserts are in this area).

> If these air currents were upset even regionally, then I assume they may
>affect ocean surface currents. And since the "El Nino" phenomena is related
>to oceanic temperature changes etc etc, could this then provide for
>instabilities in the weather/climate on a larger scale ?

Certainly.  El Nino is intimately related to changes in the equatorial
winds. It's not clear what causes what, though.

----------------------------------------------------------------

Bob Myers                             myers@hobiecat.Caltech.Edu

eugene@pioneer.arpa (Eugene Miya N.) (01/08/87)

>> If these air currents were upset even regionally, then I assume they may
>>affect ocean surface currents. And since the "El Nino" phenomena is related
>>to oceanic temperature changes etc etc, could this then provide for
>>instabilities in the weather/climate on a larger scale ?
>
>Certainly.  El Nino is intimately related to changes in the equatorial
>winds. It's not clear what causes what, though.
>
>----------------------------------------------------------------
>
>Bob Myers                             myers@hobiecat.Caltech.Edu

I would not go so far as to say it is intimately related.  Related,
perhaps.  What happens at the boundaries of the air-sea interface are
poorly understood.  El Nino is a fad in some areas of atmospheric
science and not others.  We don't really understand how heat from the
sea gets into the air (vapor sure, but what mechanisms besides incoming
solar radiation, etc.) and (harder) how heat gets from the air into the sea.
[first sentence]

El Nino is a simple handle to describe a SET of phenomena.  There are
several problems associated with trying to describe it not the least of
which are the 3-D ODEs which describe it and the hydrodynamics (state
changes are the hard part) which are going on.  Be skeptical.

Note: you would never have seen the synopic discovery of El Nino with
the joint use of orbiting satellites and ocean going ships (sea-state).

--eugene miya
  NASA Ames Research Center
  eugene@ames-aurora.ARPA
  "You trust the `reply' command with all those different mailers out there?"
  {hplabs,hao,nike,ihnp4,decwrl,allegra,tektronix,menlo70}!ames!aurora!eugene

bob@uhmanoa.UUCP (Bob Cunningham) (01/09/87)

> >> If these air currents were upset even regionally, then I assume they may
> >>affect ocean surface currents. And since the "El Nino" phenomena is related
> >>to oceanic temperature changes etc etc, could this then provide for
> >>instabilities in the weather/climate on a larger scale ?
> >
> >Certainly.  El Nino is intimately related to changes in the equatorial
> >winds. It's not clear what causes what, though.
>... 
> El Nino is a simple handle to describe a SET of phenomena.  There are
> several problems associated with trying to describe it not the least of
> which are the 3-D ODEs which describe it and the hydrodynamics (state
> changes are the hard part) which are going on.  Be skeptical.

What started out to be a rather straightforward investigation of a simple
phenomenon---periodic failure of the anchovy harvest off South
America---has turned out to involve rather complex worldwide changes in
atmosphere ("Southern Oscillation") and hydrosphere (Equatorial
countercurrent and Pacific sea level changes) circulations.

Hundreds (at least) well-qualified researchers are studying various aspects
of the overall problem (it is the main rationale behind the worldwide
Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere project, one very extensive study,
to name one large project).

Perhaps in 3-5 years it will be fairly well understood, but probably not
before then.

-- 
Bob Cunningham
bob@hig.hawaii.edu

pmk@prometheus.UUCP (Paul M Koloc) (01/11/87)

>In article <282@sri-arpa.ARPA> TSOMMER%IRLEARN.BITNET@WISCVM.WISC.EDU writes:
>>(This is not necessarily a physics question but here goes )
>Followup to sci.misc.
>>Does anyone know if the climatic effect of loss of most of the Earth's
>>equatorial rain forest has been calculated or even studied ?  I ask
>>this question as I have heard it said that at the present rate, only 15 %
>>approximately of it will remain in 15 years. Since a large amount of cloud
>>covers these regions

In article <1452@cit-vax.Caltech.Edu> myers@hobiecat.UUCP (Bob Myers) writes:
>Organization : California Instititute of Technology
>Keywords: Hadley cell clouds rain forests
>From: myers@hobiecat.Caltech.Edu (Bob Myers)
>Path: hobiecat!myers

>The reason the rain forests are disappearing is because of human
>created deforestation, not lack of cloud cover. Nor is there any
>clear direct relationship between the cloud cover and the rain forest.
>(I don't see how cutting down trees directly affects the clouds
>in the area.)

The evaporation rate over vegetated areas can be very high,
especially rain forests and crops like corn.  Iowa for example
is fed by under ground water seeping from the Rockies and also
a good amount of natural rainfall.  The corn that grows now can
send its roots very much deeper than it could even twenty years
ago and so it can pull water out of the ground and deliver it to
the atmosphere.  This vegetations holds the water and slows its
flow in the Amazon, and without it things will become quite a
different story.    Watch the speeded up daily weather shows
during the middle and early August in the area of Iowa. You will
see as the sun brightens the day, suddenly Iowa turns white like
a burst popcorn kernel as afternoon arrives.  (Actually, as hundreds
of thunderheads form). 

>>           ......        ..  and thus if they
>>were destroyed would this affect cloud cover and hence the "Hadley Cells" ?
>>(The Hadley cells are the currents of air circulating from the equatorial
>>regions to the tropics of both hemispheres and back again )

Yep!  It would cause more atmospheric heating and this would propel a
stronger up surge which would result in a higher proportion of the 
current going all the way to the to the poles.  This could effect
the net melting/freezing ratio for the polar caps and the other
interesting thing is that the polar surface currents would tend to
move further south.  That may already be happening, because Florida,
for example, has had more damaging frosts over the last 15
years then in previous periods. Yet the poles will be warmer.  

            I heard of a fellow who could tell whether 
                     by just looking at a girl
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