henry@utzoo.UUCP (Henry Spencer) (11/16/86)
Space station operations task force formed within NASA to plan how to
operate the station. One particular issue needing attention is how the
existence of a permanently manned space facility will affect the design
of other projects.
Brazilian National Institute of Space Research (INPE) building prototype
for a series of four experimental weather/Earth-sensing satellites, to be
launched on Brazilian-made boosters starting perhaps 1989.
NASA begins full-scale SRB assembly tests using rounding tools to prevent
some of the assembly problems discovered during the Challenger investigation.
Looks like the new tools work.
First shuttle payload manifest since 51L emphasizes military payloads
heavily for first two years, partly to bolster USAF early-warning-satellite
capability. SDI Spacelab also expected early in second year. Two TDRSs
and two DoD payloads expected to precede Space Telescope. Only one semi-
commercial satellite is present in the first two years: the British/NATO
Skynet comsat.
[I believe the full manifest is in the next issue of AW&ST, and will thus
appear in the next summary. -- HS]
Brookings Institution forum on US space program directions concludes that
the outlook for space commercialization is dim for the next little while.
The Challenger accident and the confused state of federal policy have
messed up a lot of plans.
Plan to validate Shuttle handling equipment at Vandenberg with a full-dress
assembly exercise has been cancelled, mostly because of cost. Orbiter
Columbia was to have moved to Vandenberg this month, after several delays.
Justifications for cancellation are that much of the support equipment will
have to be replaced anyway before the earliest date when Shuttle launches
from Vandenberg could start, and that it is too risky to fly one of only
three surviving orbiters across the country twice (!!).
Support building in White House and Kremlin to revive cooperative space
activities, notably exploration of Mars and space-adaptation studies, but
there is debate within the US government about this. NASA supports it,
as do intelligence agencies, but DoD and parts of the State Dept. are
alarmed about technology transfer. Significantly, it looks like the
Soviets are interested enough that they will not make US abandonment of
SDI a precondition (!) for such cooperation. Next official step is to
negotiate a new general agreement on space cooperation, replacing the old
one that the US allowed to lapse in 1982 in the middle of the Poland uproar.
Preliminary work on this is in progress.
Plans for joint US-USSR work are emphasizing cooperative planning and
operations, plus data exchange, rather than joint hardware construction,
partly to placate the DoD paranoids. High on the agenda is simultaneous
operations by the 1988 Soviet Mars/Phobos mission and the 1990 US Mars
Observer orbiter. With any luck, the Soviet probe will still be active
when Mars Observer arrives -- *if* Mars Observer launches in 1990. NASA
is now under pressure to scrap its early suggestion to save money by
slipping Mars Observer launch to 1992. US scientists already have informal
invitations to participate in the Mars/Phobos mission.
The Soviets appear to have shifted attention from Venus to Mars; their
earlier Vesta Venus/asteroid mission is now a Mars/asteroid mission.
Tentatively, once on the surface the Soviet landers would deploy balloons
carrying imaging systems. With the aid of solar heat, the balloons would
drift at an altitude of a few thousand feet. US scientists attach high
priority to US participation in Vesta planning, since Vesta is still in
its formative stages where changes could be made easily, and data from it
would be important to rover or sample-return missions.
Various other cooperative activities have been proposed, including use
of US tracking and communication facilities for the Mars/Phobos and Vesta
missions, data exchange on space adaptation, use of US CAT scanners to
look at calcium loss in Soviet astronauts, coordinated study of data from
Venera 15 and 16 for planning the Magellan mission, and assorted general
exchanges of people and information. One area the Soviets are interested
in is joint work on closed-cycle life support, but technology transfer
paranoia rears its ugly head here.
DoD, as usual, believes the Soviets would not know the sky was blue if
they hadn't stolen the information from the US, and they are upset about
technology leakage from the US Shuttle to the Soviet one. NASA says this
is nonsense, that the important technologies (e.g. main engine design)
have been protected and that the rest aren't worth protecting. US analysts
[probably DoD] expect launch of the Soviet Saturn 5-class booster with an
unmanned cargo pod within a year, and first launch carrying the Soviet
shuttle in maybe 1988.
Arabsat to decide this month [Oct] whether to allow Geostar Corp. to use
Arabsat 1C temporarily. If this is approved, the satellite would be
launched by Ariane 4 in May 1989, and positioned over the US for Geostar
use until Arabsat needs it. Arabsat is expected to drive a hard bargain,
and approval is not assured. Use of Arabsat 1C would permit Geostar to
begin position-fixing operations, and allow limited data traffic to and
from mobile terminals.
Hughes and Boeing have rethought the Jarvis booster to reduce cost and
schedule risks by greater use of Shuttle components. Use of Saturn 5
engines has been abandoned due to major uncertainties about manufacturing
processes and tooling. The new design uses a pair of Shuttle SRBs flanking
a modified External Tank with a single SSME on its base. The top of the
tank is replaced by a payload platform and shroud. Hughes is studying
various possibilities for the payload platform, including the Centaur
variants developed for the cancelled Shuttle/Centaur.
One significant asset of the new Jarvis is that it can use Shuttle launch
sites and test facilities; Hughes is talking to NASA about this. An early-
1987 decision to develop Jarvis would yield first launch early in 1990.
This is about the same schedule as before. Hughes is considering private
financing if Jarvis is not picked as the USAF Medium Launch Vehicle. The
first phase of MLV studies ends in February with a design review.
Hughes is obviously concerned about the price tag for SSMEs, and is looking
at the possibilities of recovering them or building a cheaper variant by
accepting short engine lifetimes (since Jarvis wouldn't re-use them).
Hughes is studying the possibility of igniting the SSME after launch, to
avoid the possible problem with hydrogen trapping in the exhaust duct of
the Vandenberg shuttle pad.
Jarvis capacity would be about 80,000 lbs into low orbit, down slightly
from the Saturn-based design. Since this is about double the Shuttle's
actual payload record to date, and further shuttle payload increases are
not likely soon due to safety concerns, Jarvis could be a useful thing to
have.
[If Jarvis is picked as the Medium Launch Vehicle, the USAF will be in
the slightly ludicrous situation of having a "medium" launcher with twice
the payload of its "heavy" launcher, the Titan 4. -- HS]
[Editorial of the Week: It's too early to say whether Hughes has done
the right thing with the redesign. It is probably a smart move in terms
of reducing development and production uncertainties, and of increasing
the probability of winning the MLV competition. It is probably a bad move
in terms of long-term costs, where the all-liquid design with older and
simpler engines would win handily. We'll see. Either way, Jarvis is
clearly just the thing to launch major Space Station subassemblies. -- HS]
Space Industries Inc has signed a partnership agreement with Westinghouse
for detailed design and marketing of SII's man-tended Industrial Space
Facility. Westinghouse will be prime contractor. Both companies will
invest in its cost, estimated to be $250-300M through construction of
the first operational unit (not including launch). SII will remain
separate and privately-held, and will be responsible for overall program
management and marketing. The partnership will need outside funding,
which will be a joint responsibility. Ex-astronaut Joe Allen, SII VP,
says SII's highest priorities in the next two years are doing detailed
design, sorting out the government's real intentions about commercial
use of the Shuttle, and obtaining user commitments for the first ISFs.
Then it's time to build the first ISF, for launch in late 1990 if shuttle
space can be had. Maxime Faget, SII president and CEO, says Westinghouse
is a logical choice because it has extensive experience with robotics in
hostile environments, and ISF will rely heavily on robotics in between
Shuttle visits. He also says that Westinghouse has the major advantage
of not being a big government contractor, so "chances of keeping the
costs under control are a lot better". [For those who don't know who
Faget is, he can claim some experience in such matters. He sketched the
basic design for the Mercury capsule, was chief engineer at Houston for
the Apollo spacecraft, and did the first rough designs for the Shuttle
orbiter. -- HS] Faget is optimistic about the market for ISF despite the
recent setbacks to commercial space activities, but admits that marketing
will be easier once the Shuttle flies again and customers can see the
program as real.
Federal Express is terminating its ZapMail electronic document-transmission
service due to high costs and technical problems. It is evaluating future
offerings in the area, and in particular feels that the satellite part of
ZapMail performed extremely well.
Comsat Corp [primary US international satellite-communications carrier] and
Contel Corp [one of the fragments of Ma Bell] plan to merge, subject to
approval from various people including the Justice Dept. The intent is to
give Comsat the muscle to compete effectively with other carriers like AT&T.
Although Contel is five times the size of Comsat, the merger is being set
up as an acquisition of Contel shares by Comsat due to legal limits on
ownership of Comsat by common carriers.
Critics slam NASA 1988 budget on the grounds that NASA is abandoning US
leadership in space research. Organized recovery efforts for the shuttle
and expendable boosters have not been matched by a similar effort for
space science. There is major debate about whether it is a good idea to
slow important missions to keep smaller, less visible programs alive;
proponents say it keeps key technologies alive, opponents say it delays
internationally-important science results. NASA FY1988 space science
budget changes just sent to OMB affect:
- Planetary missions. Comet rendezvous/asteroid flyby (CRAF) will not be a
new start in FY1988, despite its high priority. NASA continues to scheme
a two-year delay for Mars Observer, claimed by critics to be the only major
science project so far unaffected by 51L; see earlier for comments on the
problems this creates for resumed US/Soviet cooperation.
- Vitality package. This is a pool of money to support a variety of science
needs, particularly Spacelab data analysis and Explorer work.
- Cosmic Background Explorer. Goddard has begun a near-total redesign to
convert the Explorer from a 10,500-lb shuttle payload to a 5,000-lb Delta
payload. Redesign will cost $15M, the Delta will add another $50-60M.
The major gain will be a polar-orbit launch in late 1989, not much later
than the original schedule. Little science impact will result from the
redesign; the weight loss is not as big as it sounds, since over a third
of it will come from deleting a propulsion stage needed for Shuttle launch
but not for Delta. The completed Shuttle-compatible structure will have
to be abandoned, but the major experiments should not need redesign.
- New start for the Global Geospace Science solar-terrestrial satellite.
This is the major new science mission, $25M in FY1988, $102M in FY1989.
Solar-terrestrial scientists think this is about right, scientists from
other space-science disciplines say the mission lacks the leadership
potential of more visible missions.
- High Resolution Solar Observatory, a smaller version of the original
Solar Optical Telescope proposal. NASA asks $12M to get it started.
- Advanced X-ray Astronomical Facility to get $25M in technology-development
money, with an eye on a new start in FY1989 or FY1990 (depending on the
fate of CRAF).
These changes give an overall increase from $1426M to $1531M in the space
science budget for FY1988.
NASA to measure loads on SRBs during rollout to pad 39B as part of the
rollout and pad tests of Atlantis. There is some concern about possible
stresses resulting from the relatively sharp turn that the mobile launch
platform takes to reach 39B. Marshall and Morton Thiokol do not expect
anything significant, but the instrumentation that has been placed on
the right booster should settle the matter.
Contraves (Swiss aerospace company) shows off inflatable space-rigidizing
structure concept for use in large antennas etc. It cures by exposure to
solar radiation after inflation. Contraves has built several models of a
3.2-m-dia reflector weighing less than 3 kg, under an ESA study contract.
The company says that tests of geometrical accuracy and electrical
performance look good.
JPL is studying a mission dubbed TAU, Thousand Astronomical Units, for a
nuclear-ion probe to travel well beyond the solar system. A megawatt
nuclear reactor would power ion engines for about 10 years, giving a
velocity of 225,000 mph at a distance of 6 billion miles. The 50,000-lb
propulsion system would be shed after fuel exhaustion, leaving the
11,000-lb spacecraft to continue on for up to 40 more years. It would
incorporate a 1.5-m telescope and a laser communications system; one
major mission would be direct measurement of distances to stars.
[Mini-editorial: a probe with a 50-year mission will be passed by newer
probes with better engines long before the end of its mission. Planning
for such long missions needs to consider in-flight obsolescence. -- HS]
Western Union expects to complete negotiations for launch of Westar 6-S
by the Chinese Long March 3 booster late this year. Launch would be in
March 1988, probably. The US State Dept has to approve shipment of the
satellite to China, but this doesn't look like a major problem.
--
Henry Spencer @ U of Toronto Zoology
{allegra,ihnp4,decvax,pyramid}!utzoo!henrykenny@uiucdcsb.cs.uiuc.edu (11/18/86)
In article <7325@utzoo.UUCP> henry@utzoo.UUCP (Henry Spencer) writes: >[Mini-editorial: a probe with a 50-year mission will be passed by newer >probes with better engines long before the end of its mission. Planning >for such long missions needs to consider in-flight obsolescence. -- HS] Then good@pixar.UUCP replies: >Good point. But better engines will result, at least in part, from experience >gained by flying the current idea of "new" engines. I also wonder if the >probe might not return some data significant for the planning of a follow-up >mission during the first few years. More to the point, the fact that a probe is obsolescent doesn't mean that it's necessarily useless. A case in point are the early Pioneer spacecraft. As of two years ago (the last I heard from any of the Ames people on the project), all of the civilian Pioneers (the first four were built while JPL was still a military shop) were still functioning and returning useful plasma-physics data. The oldest is nearing 25 years of service. Kevin Kenny UUCP: {ihnp4,pur-ee,convex}!uiucdcs!kenny University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign CSNET: kenny@UIUC.CSNET NSA line eater food: ARPA: kenny@B.CS.UIUC.EDU (kenny@UIUC.ARPA) Bomb, secret, terrorist, cryptography, DES, assassinate, decode, CIA, NRO.