henry@utzoo.UUCP (Henry Spencer) (11/23/86)
MITI asks Japanese government to reduce corporate taxes on space-related
investments to help accelerate commercial space development.
Circa 30% of processor time on the Cray 2 at Ames is now going to hypersonic
research for the Aerospace Plane, aerobraking, etc.
Delta launch of GOES-H (Clarke-orbit weather satellite) delayed from Nov
to Dec to replace imaging device in satellite; similar system failed in
testing.
Nov 6 Atlas-Centaur launch of Navy FleetSatCom may be delayed due to
questionable electronic components. There was some thought that software
problems might force a delay, but they have been cleared up. Launch is
still officially on schedule, payload test on Oct 23 will settle the issue.
Soviet manned spaceflight activity is on hold briefly to prepare for full-
scale operations aboard Mir. Soviets say no more cosmonauts will visit Mir
until early 1987, at which point a crew will go up and the first big add-on
module will follow. They plan to continue extending the stay time of their
long-stay crews; the next step is 10 months, with still longer times to
follow. The first specialized module to be added to Mir will be an astro-
physics facility, including the multinational Complex X-Ray Observatory
which has major European participation. More multinational projects are
to fly on Mir in the next few years, and the Soviets are open to proposals
for yet more. US delegate to the International Astronautical Federation
meeting (at which these plans were discussed) comments: "I think the
message is clear: Soviets are prepared to fire the starting gun for a new
period of intensive manned space flights... More and more people are
starting to beat down the Soviets' doors to get in on the action on board
Mir, while we in the West find ourselves literally grounded and arguing
over details on how we are going to develop our own international space
station facility."
Glavkosmos, formed last year in a reorganization of the Soviet space
program, is basically in charge of coordinating between hardware builders
and customers (Soviet space users, international cooperative missions, and
commercial activities). Essentially Glavkosmos is in charge of engineering
while Intercosmos (part of the Academy of Sciences) is in charge of science.
France is evaluating an uprated Ariane 4 to keep Ariane competitive if US
expendables get serious, and as a backup in case Ariane 5 development is
slow. Nothing very special, just adding more small solid strap-ons to the
normal Ariane 4.
China is looking at multi-payload launches for the Long March 2, carrying
2-4 small satellites into low orbit. One concept puts a 300-1000 kg
satellite on top of a cylindrical housing containing three 50-300 kg
satellites. The bigger satellite would be deployed forward by a spring
system, while the three smaller ones would deploy sideways using the
"frisbee" launch scheme already demonstrated by the US. Orbits for such
missions would be either 63.4 degrees (geophysics research) or 98.9 degrees
(Sun-synchronous orbits for remote sensing) with perigee 175-300 km and
apogee 800-1000 km. The transfer orbit module being developed jointly by
Beijing Wanyuan Industries and the Swedish Space Corp. could be used to
boost the small satellites to higher orbits if necessary. One of the first
TOM applications will be SSC's Mailstar satellite, which will ride piggyback
on a Long March 2 launch carrying a larger Chinese satellite.
Japan is studying a three-stage solid rocket as a launch vehicle for a very
small custom-designed satellite. It would basically be built out of sounding-
rocket stages (like the larger US Scout booster) and would launch a 17-kg
satellite into a 200x1000 km orbit. (The orbit is chosen to provide several
days in space even with fairly large guidance errors.) The 17-kg satellite
would have an instrument payload of about 5 kg. It would be box-shaped and
spin-stabilized, with power from solar-panel paddles. Body 28x28x25 cm.
China has defined a series of Long March 2 versions suitable for various
missions. The high end is a souped-up version with stretched tanks and
4-8 liquid strap-on boosters; it could launch 9000 kg into a 200-km 28.5-
degree parking orbit with 4 boosters, 13000 kg with 8.
New Space Shuttle payload manifest is making a lot of payload sponsors
unhappy, and it's not clear that even it can be met. Comsat operators are
threatening to sue and foreign governments are applying diplomatic pressure.
Major science payloads go up early, because by 1993 DoD and the Space Station
will tie up most of the capacity.
First launch is set for 18 Feb 1988. Program managers and astronauts say
that there isn't enough momentum to make this, citing mid-88 or early 89
as more realistic. Truly agrees that there are problems, and says that
the target date will not be met unless some changes are made in the recovery
effort. There are coordination problems, the effort is not focussed well
enough on the specific objective of getting the Shuttle flying again, and
there are too many committees (both inside and outside NASA) making decisions.
[Editorial of the Week: The possibility of Shuttle flights not starting
again until 1989 is not just bad, it is an outrage. This is criminal.
If an aircraft company had a fatal crash during tests and announced that
the result would be a three-year delay before test flights resumed, we
would unquestionably think that the company was:
(a) grossly underfunded,
(b) grossly short of management support for the project, or
(c) grossly incompetent (as a whole, notwithstanding the probable
presence of competent people in some subordinate positions).
Or (d), all of the above. -- HS ]
The manifest assumes flight rate starting at 5/yr, going to 10/yr in the
second year and gradually building to 16/yr. NRC report to House Appro-
priations Committee, however, says that even with a fourth orbiter the
maximum sustainable rate is 11-13/yr except for short surge periods.
11 of the 30 missions through mid-1991 are DoD dedicated, 7 others have
major DoD presence. Several will be spysats in fairly high-inclination
orbits for KSC, affecting the outlook for Vandenberg Shuttle launches.
Belief is widespread that the combination of high-inclination launches
from KSC and the availability of Titan 4 will make the USAF give up on
the Vandenberg Shuttle facility.
West Germany and Japan are irked about the long delay in launch of their
Spacelab missions, which will interfere with preparation for Space Station
participation. Both are complaining to NASA and the State Dept.; this has
already resulting in the German Spacelab D2 being moved up some. ESA is
also unhappy about Ulysses delays.
NASA will ask DoD to carry some smaller civilian middeck, Getaway Special,
and Hitchhiker payloads on dedicated military missions.
The manifest was ready for release in July, but there were long delays
because the White House Economic Policy Council insisted on getting into
the act on comsat-related issues, about which it knows little.
Okay, okay, you're all waiting for it, here it is (well, AW&ST's summary
of it, anyway).
1988
Feb 18 TDRS
May DoD launch to Clarke orbit [early-warning satellite? -- HS]
July DoD, probably large spysat
Sept TDRS
Nov Hubble Space Telescope
1989
Jan Astro-1 (UV telescope attached payload)
March DoD to Clarke orbit
late April Magellan
early June SDI Spacelab
late June two USAF Navstars and NASA materials-science pallet
July DoD
early Sept DoD
late Sept again, two Navstars and materials pallet
Nov Galileo or Ulysses
Dec Spacelab Life Sciences
1990
Jan Gamma Ray Observatory
Feb DoD
April International Materials Science Spacelab
May USAF Navstar, McDonnell-Douglas electrophoresis, Space
Station heat-pipe test
late May DoD
early July DoD
late July British Skynet-4 (military comsat, commercially booked)
late Aug DoD
Oct Galileo or Ulysses
Oct tethered satellite, Insat (Indian comsat), another Navstar
Nov-Dec Syncom-4, recovery of Long Duration Exposure Facility (at
last; majority of LDEF's payloads will be ruined
by spending nearly 5 years longer in space than
intended)
1991
Jan Spacelab pallets: atmospheric data, large structures control
Feb Navstar and materials again
March DoD
April Eureca (European unmanned platform)
At this point detailed flight assignments stop, although general scheduling
continues by naming high-priority payloads and which quarter they fly.
1991 cont.
2Q Japanese Spacelab
3Q German Spacelab D2
3Q Space Telescope refurbishment visit
4Q retrieve Eureca
Commercial missions (Intelsat, Inmarsat, etc.) start showing up in 1992.
Space Station construction starts with five flights in 1993. 1994 is almost
entirely DoD and Space Station.
Reagan overruled Shuttle program managers' desire to honor 31 of 44 launch
contracts held by commercial and foreign users, approving only 20. The
20-payload option includes only shuttle-unique payloads and those with
national-security or foreign-policy implications. Sources have it that
this option was supported by NSC, DoD, DoC, DoT. NASA, OSTP, State, and
Treasury supported the 31-payload option, which added satellites that would
be costly to refit for expendables. The 24 rejected payloads must now
fly on expendables. This might give one or more US expendable companies
a foothold in the commercial market. However, the small percentage of
near-term shuttle capacity budgeted for commercial use (12% over next 7
years goes to commercial and foreign customers and misc. civil government
agencies, vs pre-51L 33% commercial) will hurt commercial space activity.
Joe Allen (ex-astronaut, now VP of Space Industries Inc.): "We are delighted
to be on the manifest three times... We would be more pleased if more of our
commercial brethren were there." SII's Industrial Space Facility modules
are shuttle-unique, so they're in, although they had hoped for 1990 and are
now looking at 1992. They hope to be moved up. Hughes also has shuttle-
unique payloads [presumably the large-diameter Syncom-4s] on the manifest.
The other two commercial customers on the manifest are Geostar and RCA,
included on national-security grounds without further explanation.
The big winners for non-US-government launch slots clearly are the foreign
customers, largely because of influence by the State Dept. Some of these
foreign slots may get used for other things, since some of those payloads
are double-booked, holding Ariane slots as well. Ariane already has
contracts for 6 of the 44 original Shuttle payloads and reservations for 8
more.
Commercial expendable suppliers are happy. Customers pushed off the shuttle
are not; they are skeptical that this will create a thriving US expendable
market. VP satellite progrmas for GTE Spacenet says he expects only one
US expendable maker to survive, and that only with government business too.
[Long odds he's thinking of Martin Marietta with Titan. -- HS] VP space
resources for MCI Communications says the shuttle policy is a long-term
plan for a US debacle in space, since the peak demand for US expendables
will be brief and the realities of European and Japanese competition will
then strike home.
Fletcher orders halt to signing of further Joint Endeavor Experiments,
which provide free shuttle flights for commercial space experiments, until
the large backlog of small payloads can be sorted out. The hiatus will
last at least several weeks, until the secondary-payload manifest is set.
Active search for JEA partners stopped a little while after 51L, but
negotiations with already-interested companies continued. The primary-
payload manifest does not set priorities for the hundreds of smaller
payloads intended for the middeck and cargo bay: 60-70 Getaway Specials,
several Hitchhiker payload-bay experiments, and 200 middeck-locker
experiments (60 NASA experiments = 100 lockers, 70 DoD = 50 lockers,
at least 10 JEA = 30 lockers, 35 Shuttle Student Involvement Program
payloads = 20 lockers). NASA has stopped taking new GAS and student-
experiment applications for the moment.
NASA will be able to take about 500 lb of secondary payloads on each TDRS
launch, about 10 lockers per flight. Most of the other early missions are
weight-limited dedicated missions. Mixed-cargo flights offer the best
opportunities for secondary payloads, but most of them use Columbia, which
is heavier than Atlantis or Discovery and will limit the possibilities.
Fletcher has ordered allocation of middeck space, which was in short supply
even before 51L, as: 40% DoD, 30% NASA science, 30% NASA commercial.
Companies with JEAs are finding the manifesting problems very discouraging.
US comsat operators forced off the shuttle are talking to their lawyers
about filing suit for the extra costs involved. Many of them had already
put money down in partial payment for launches. They like Ariane a lot
as an alternative; Troy D. Ellington, VP satellites for GTE Spacenet:
"We know how to do business with them. They are good for their word."
Pan Am Pacific Satellite Corp and Sattel Technologies, owners of Westar 6
and Palapa B2, are in a particularly strong position to take legal action
against NASA: the recovery agreement that covered retrieval of the two
satellites from space guarantees Shuttle space for them and forbids use
of other launchers. Neither is on the manifest!
Lockheed Space Ops will lay off 1000 workers at Vandenberg, due to the
cancellation of the Vandenberg Shuttle-complex tests and its accelerated
mothballing. 200 military personnel will go elsewhere. The USAF is looking
at alternate uses for some of the facilities.
NASA plans to end negotiations with Transpace Carriers, which has been
seeking rights to operate private Delta launches. Fletcher says that
NASA is not in the business of regulating commercial launch vehicles,
and has told the expendable manufacturers that launch facilities are
available if they have customers, so there is no longer any reason for
Transpace to be talking to NASA. Transpace wanted exclusive commercial
marketing rights for Delta. NASA says that this is something for them
to take up with McDonnell Douglas (which makes Delta), not NASA.
Geostar Corp will provide satellite position-fixing for classified military
missions under DoD contracts. This may constitute 25% of Geostar's sales
when the company gets its own satellites up.
Orbiter Atlantis rolled out to pad 39B on Oct 9 for seven weeks of tests.
USAF Titan managers are studying launching up to eight Titan 4s a year
from the Cape, double the initial projections. Current plans are to start
with 2/yr and build up to 4, but studies are being done in case more are
needed. This could happen if Shuttle recovery is further delayed, if more
DoD satellites fail in orbit, or if Shuttle weight limits interfere with
future payloads. These studies do not include possible commercial launches
or planetary missions. 8/yr, or even the 6/yr that some DoD people think
is quite likely, could interfere with commercial Titan plans because of
competition for facilities and workforce. (The two would use different
pads, but many support facilities are in common.)
A fully-stacked Titan 34D has been removed from Pad 40 at the Cape, after
being there nearly a year in preparation for launch of a Clarke-orbit DoD
payload, so that its boosters can be destacked for thorough checkout.
Other booster segments in storage are also being tested, and some have
been sent back to the manufacturer for further testing. The insulation
problem suspected to have caused the booster failure in April is a major
headache, since nobody is sure just what it was or how to detect a
recurrence.
Brig. Gen. Kenneth E. Staten, program manager for the National Aerospace
Plane, says that a decision on building and flight-testing the X-30
experimental aerospace plane is expected in 1989. Technology development
contracts totalling $450M were awarded in April by NASA and USAF. The
flight-vehicle phase would produce two demonstrators, which might be
anywhere from F-15 size to 747 size. Staten says that an operational
military aerospace plane might be available by the year 2000, with a
commercial derivative possible by 2010. Commercial hypersonic transports
will need special treatment in various areas, he says: they will have
limited maneuverability and will need traffic clearance well in advance.
For example, a trans-Pacific flight bound for LA might need clearances
sorted out 15 minutes in advance, which would put it in the vicinity of
Hawaii. Ground operations will also be affected. Staten says that
storage and handling of liquid hydrogen should not be a serious problem;
"The H2 fuel is probably safer than Jet A, and is more environmentally
acceptable." Spilled hydrogen vaporizes and dissipates more quickly,
needs much higher temperatures to ignite it, and burns more quickly
while affecting a smaller area. He says that NASA studies of crash
hazards show less danger with hydrogen than with ordinary hydrocarbon fuels.
[As I recall, "Stages to Saturn" said that Apollo experience was that
liquid hydrogen could be treated as unusually volatile gasoline; it was
liquid oxygen that really needed elaborate safety precautions. -- HS]
[Persons advocating spending the Challenger-replacement money on the
aerospace plane instead should note the expected operational dates in
the above. -- HS]
Finland will become an associate member of ESA. Two existing associate
members, Austria and Norway, become full members next year.
--
Henry Spencer @ U of Toronto Zoology
{allegra,ihnp4,decvax,pyramid}!utzoo!henry