henry@utzoo.UUCP (Henry Spencer) (11/25/87)
[Quote of the week, from Jane's Spaceflight Directory 1987, R. Turnill:
"NASA has lost the will to put men into space. Only those emphasizing the
conservative approach and `safety must come first' find favour. With 2000
personnel now concerned with `safety, reliability, and quality assurance',
and whose own safety is best ensured by saying `No', it is difficult to see
how the Launch Team can hope to get flights resumed -- despite the fact that
there are many who still think that there never was a need for complete
suspension."]
Editorial on the International Space Future Forum in Moscow. "Several
interesting contrasts emerged from the gathering. The starkest of these
was the ease with which Soviet space officials protrayed their space
program as both broadly based and energetic, while US space officials, by
failing to project a coordinated much less united presence, confirmed the
widely accepted impression that the US program is directionless and
moribund... Soviet space officials are debating how they are going to
carry out their future space plans while in the US committees and panels
are being formed to debate whether there will be a concerted future effort
in space and, if so, what it might include."
The Forum did have some problems, notably some organizational snafus in
Moscow. This is hardly surprising, given that it's the first time the
Soviets have tried something like this.
The US is planning a conference in response: The Impact of Space Sciences
on the Human Community. Planned for mid-88, might be postponed if the
shuttle recovery effort runs late. Announced by Thomas Rona, highest US
official at the Forum. Rona says that the US remains against exchange of
hardware with the Soviets in collaborative projects, partly because of
technology-transfer paranoia [my word, not his] and partly because "we want
to have a basic symmetry -- if both sides have something to offer each
other, then the leadership question does not come up. And it is clear that
for the moment, we don't have too many opportunities for cooperation to
offer from our side." He notes that many of the ambitious Soviet plans are
not yet approved projects, and that US involvement is still possible; other
US delegates agree but observe that at least the Soviets *have* a plan.
MBB ships the liquid boosters for the first Ariane 4.
JPL finishes tests using Voyager 1 to check out software improvements for
Voyager 2's Neptune encounter, mostly motion control for better imaging.
Another big closeup of Energia on the pad (before the May launch).
Soviet cosmonauts are doing takeoff and landing tests with a jet-powered
version of the Soviet shuttle orbiter. First orbital launch will probably
be an unmanned test; this decision is not yet definite, and the cosmonauts
don't like it much. First flight may not be until 1989, to allow time for
Energia to be checked out thoroughly and forthe shuttle's digital flight
control system to be sorted out (the tests are being run with an analog
prototype).
Energia will not fly again until the problems with the first launch are
sorted out completely. Among other things, it was meant to fly in daylight,
but last-minute difficulties delayed it. The Soviets say Energia is a
recoverable launcher, with both the strap-ons and parts of the core built
for recovery and re-use, although no recovery was done on the first flight.
The big square bulges on the strap-ons are indeed parachutes. Soviet
descriptions of how the core is recovered are conflicting and unclear.
They quote launch weight at 2000 metric tons and payload at about 100.
Pictures of a model displayed at the Space Future Forum, showing four big
engines at the base of the core and four in each strap-on; if this model
is accurate, this ends the speculation that the Soviets might be using
aerospike nozzles.
New module being readied for launch to Mir: an EVA/airlock module, roughly
the same size as Kvant.
The current Mir crew are doing well and will probably continue for several
more weeks. There will be at least one more Progress launch to Mir before
their mission ends, since Progress carries about a month's supplies. Yuri
Romanenko passed the 240-day mark recently.
Soviets preparing for one-year Mir mission, to be carried out by the crew
that replaces Romanenko and Alexandrov late this year. Doctors say that
exercise remains the best countermeasure against degenerative effects, and
that Romanenko in particular goes farther than the assigned routine on this.
Glavcosmos offers Getaway Specials! Price about $15k per kilo, to fly on
Cosmos unmanned missions or Mir. Also offers Gorizont commercial comsats
at $45M for full capacity.
India's IRS remote-sensing satellite will fly on a Vostok launcher this year.
NASA and CIA preparing studies on international space activities and their
effects on US foreign policy. Other nations are effectively using their
space programs for various gains; the US is not. CIA says that the Soviets
will maintain their conspicuous lead at least through 1995. Recommendations
to go to Fletcher, and eventually to Reagan, will include:
- Specific long-term goals, to be established at once.
- Presidential leadership, in particular in formally giving NASA the lead
role in US civil space policy.
- Getting DoD and NASA back together.
- Fixing space commercialization and involving industry in planning.
- Major Presidential statement emphasizing international cooperation, its
benefits, and continued US efforts in that direction.
Congress warns NASA that space-station money will be postponed unless NASA
commits more money for pre-space-station materials-processing work, in
particular support for a free-flying module, modification of one orbiter
for longer flights, adding two Spacelab materials flights (first no later
than 1990), more FY88 research funding, and development of automation and
robotics for the space station. [Sounded good until that idiotic last item.
The space station needs, and can afford, neither.]
DoD says Soviets will "dramatically increase" tonnage into orbit over the
next decade or so, and claims again that Mir is mostly military. Of note
is DoD's statement that the Soviets could re-launch their entire satellite
network in 2-3 months if existing satellites were destroyed.
General Dynamics, McDonnell-Douglas, and Rockwell win Aerospace Plane
contracts; Boeing and Lockheed lose out. DoD says that the technology
appears adequate to get the AP into orbit.
British space officials told that no increase in budget is likely.
GOES West metsat suffers lamp failure, shortening its expected life. The
backup lamp is expected to last 12-18 months and then GOES West's imager dies.
Arianespace preparing for bulk order for up to 50 Arianes, in an attempt
to reduce costs by streamlining production. This will cover use for the
1990-1997 period. Arianespace now has a 44-satellite backlog, circa
$2.5G, over half from outside Europe.
Ariane next flies mid-Nov with Germany's TVSat 1, then in December with
Spacenet 3 (including a Geostar package) and France's Telecom 1C. Eight
launches with 14 payloads schedule for 1988, the first being the initial
Ariane 4 with European Meteosat P2, US's Panamsat 1, and the next Amsat
amateur-radio satellite, tentatively set for Feb.
New studies of Viking-orbiter images may be undertaken in preparation for
US 1990s Mars activity. The folks who found the crater of Viking 1's
heatshield have sparked more activity, including a study on what the best
images can tell about the nature of the surface. Also possible is a study
of Viking lander data over a long baseline to separate understood changes
from less-understood ones, with an eye in particular on signs of life.
"It's ironic that data from the Viking lander 1 automatic mission -- which
was some 800-900 days of systematic picture-taking on Mars -- have barely
been examined..."
Non-aerospace firms like the idea of a lunar base as a new source of pork
barrel funding oops excuse me I mean commercial opportunities. White
House says that any new US space goals should have greater commercial
involvement than, say, Apollo.
[We pause to bring you a small editorial. Whether "greater commercial
involvement" is a good idea depends on what that ringing phrase means.
In particular, if it means a government-funded program that will lean even
more heavily on contractors, it is **NOT** a good idea. The only booster
NASA ever built that made good on *all* its promises -- the Saturn V -- was
virtually hand-built by Wernher von Braun's team at Huntsville, with the
contractors taking over only after all the problems had been sorted out.
The loss of the capability to do that was one of the greatest mistakes NASA
has made since its founding, and can credibly be given partial blame for the
Challenger disaster. Back to our program...]
There is already interest from a number of companies, including some large
Japanese firms. (Predictably, the latter are raising hackles among the
technology-transfer paranoids.)
One area of long-term commercial interest in the Moon is as a source of
helium 3 for clean-burning fusion power. Helium 3 is essentially nonexistent
on Earth, but there is a noticeable amount in the lunar soil, where it has
been left by the solar wind. Extraction would be simple, and the stuff's
commercial value could be hundreds of thousands of dollars per kilogram.
A whole bunch of small secondary shuttle payloads have been scrubbed from
the near-term manifests, due to reduced flight rates and massive backlog.
About 90 such payloads will fly through mission 43 in late 1990, including
a few on mission 26. Notable on STS-26 will be a 3M experiment meant to
fly late last year.
Letter of the week, from Larry Evans of California:
"Doesn't anyone learn anything from history any more? The
Challenger accident had its roots firmly planted in the
decisions made early in the program to compromise the design
in favor of meeting a specific budget.
"A proper shuttle system would have cost twice as much as it
did, and we now must admit that we definitely got what we
paid for. Unfortunately, seven people paid more dearly than
the rest of us.
"So now we're out to do it all over again with the space
station... It is high time to put the mission in the forefront
again. I think we'd all find it would be much less expensive
in the long run."
--
Those who do not understand Unix are | Henry Spencer @ U of Toronto Zoology
condemned to reinvent it, poorly. | {allegra,ihnp4,decvax,utai}!utzoo!henry