henry@utzoo.uucp (Henry Spencer) (04/13/88)
[This is the "Aerospace Forecast and Inventory" issue; not a lot of actual
news.]
Forecast for NASA: uncertain. There is a distinct shortage of strong
space supporters in Congress these days (supporters, yes, but not in
strong political positions). NASA will be in a good position for major
new undertakings if the shuttle works well for the next couple of years
and the Hubble telescope, Galileo, and Magellan succeed. If not...
The space station remains in jeopardy due to its lack of clear missions.
NASA is hoping for a major new start in science each year for the next
several years: AXAF in 89, CRAF and Cassini in 90, a major polar platform
in 92, and a lunar orbiter in 93 [no mention of 91, oddly].
USAF pushing to keep two space-based surveillance efforts alive despite
budget cuts: a space-based radar system for tactical use, and a space-
based optical space-tracking system. The latter is of interest because
the limited viewpoints of ground-based systems make it difficult to
monitor events in the southern hemisphere and in equatorial orbits.
USAF points out that while the US is talking about building the launch
capability for a space-based defence system, the Soviets already have
it: Energia. The USAF is also concerned that the Soviet shuttle will
make it much harder to analyze Soviet payloads (because the shuttle
looks much the same no matter what payload is inside, and the payload
deployment can occur under on-board control far away from the ground-
based sensors in the northern hemisphere).
Launch counts for 1987: Soviets 95, all others 15.
The Soviets appear to be moving their radar satellites to higher altitudes,
which increases coverage but also makes them much less vulnerable to the
US Asat system.
First Ariane 4 is on track for launch at the end of May, carrying ESA's
Meteosat metsat, the American Panamsat comsat, and Amsat's latest
amateur-radio satellite. Arianespace and its contractors are gearing
up for a launch surge to try to catch up on some of their backlog.
To date 49 Arianes have been bought (20 have flown); negotiations for
another 50 (all Ariane 4s) are underway. This will cover lauches until
about 1998.
Comsat manufacturers expect a rush of business in the next year or two,
as many comsat operators are going to have to start thinking about
replacing the large number of satellites orbited in the early 80s.
Many of them will start running out of fuel in the early 90s, and the
lead times dictate ordering of replacements soon.
Although launcher makers don't want customers using Proton, many people
are irked by the silliness of the US government's "technology transfer"
argument against Proton, and wish a more supportable reason were given.
The dreaded "data gap" in Landsat coverage is imminent. The existing
satellites will probably start to die within a year, and launch of
Landsat 6 is three years away. Continuity in the late 90s is also
in doubt.
Spot, on the other hand, has the situation in hand. Spot 1 is doing
fine. Spot 2 is ready to fly and will get high priority from Arianespace
if Spot 1 starts to fail. Spots 3 and 4 are in the works.
The Soviet attempt to enter the remote-sensing market is not considered
much of a threat so far. For one thing, their images are photographic
rather than digital data, and the customers are geared for digital data.
For another thing, there is no indication so far that the Soviets will
take pictures to order (i.e. both place and time specified).
3M says commercial interest in microgravity materials work is picking up.
3M in fact will offer equipment leasing and support services to other
shuttle microgravity users.
Satellite-launch backlogs: Titan 19 (including GE's 15 reservations, not
all of which may end up being taken), Delta 9, Atlas-Centaur 4 plus 4
options, Ariane 63 (!), Proton 1? (at least one US customer is thought to
have a Proton reservation, but US government opposition makes this rather
academic), Long March "several". At least one US booster company will
probably die unless the US government actually implements its theoretical
policy of buying launch services rather than just hardware. Some of the
small startup companies will probably make commercial sales this year,
although the size of the small-payload market is very unclear and overhead
costs like insurance loom large for small companies. E Prime observes
that the USAF wants $25M third-party-liability insurance for launch of
a rocket weighing 80 pounds that travels only five miles. "A $2000
rocket and a $20000 payload will cost approximately $12000 in range
costs and $25000 in insurance premiums."
Japan is boosting its space budget 15%. H-1 is working well, with three
successful launches. H-2 development is well under way. The possibility
of delivering supplies to the space station with H-2 is under study, at
NASA request (!). Japan is also looking at a three-stage solid-fuel
replacement for the MU-3S booster currently used for science payloads;
a small Venus mission might be the first mission.
[Now, current news.]
Soviet Union begins final preparations for first (unmanned) launch of its
shuttle aboard Energia. It might happen in the next few weeks.
DoD study finds that the space station has possibilities for various
military uses, notably satellite servicing and construction. "It may
be more practical and less costly to assemble possible large space
structures, such as very large antennas and orbiting fuel storage farms,
in space rather than designing them for self assembly, deployment, and
repair."
Deja Vu Dept: The Feb 14 test of a Titan SRB produced unusually severe
erosion of internal insulation, with metal structure exposed in parts of
the nozzle. Investigation underway.
Long March launch March 7 from Xichang puts comsat into Clarke orbit.
Train carrying SRB segments for STS-26 collides with car in Mississippi.
No apparent damage to the segments, but extra inspections will be done.
Letters page carries more criticism of the non-metric space station.
"My bet is that the contractors are still attempting to hold on to
English-system tooling to save money -- or keep out foreign contractors."
(John Goodman, Peachtree City, GA)
And more of Van Allen as well. "Last year a colleague and I managed to
accomplish the first flight around the Earth via the poles in a single
engine aircraft. Despite two years of planning and support from 10
governments and countless organizations, we encountered dozens of
unanticipated problems along the way which required on-the-spot solutions.
It seems unlikely that a preprogrammed computer, no matter how sophisticated,
could have replaced us." (Richard D. Norton, Philadelphia)
--
"Noalias must go. This is | Henry Spencer @ U of Toronto Zoology
non-negotiable." --DMR | {allegra,ihnp4,decvax,utai}!utzoo!henrymasticol@styx.rutgers.edu (Steve Masticola) (04/14/88)
Henry Spencer writes: > Deja Vu Dept: The Feb 14 test of a Titan SRB produced unusually severe > erosion of internal insulation, with metal structure exposed in parts of > the nozzle. Investigation underway. Who manufactures the Titan SRB? (I've a suspicion, but just wanted to make sure.) - Steve.
tneff@dasys1.UUCP (Tom Neff) (04/20/88)
In article <1988Apr13.025305.5212@utzoo.uucp> henry@utzoo.uucp (Henry Spencer) writes: > [excellent news roundup omitted] > >Train carrying SRB segments for STS-26 collides with car in Mississippi. >No apparent damage to the segments, but extra inspections will be done. In the interests of decency, let's note that the occupants of the car were, tragically, killed. I forget whether 2 or 4 people died, but I believe a day of mourning was declared at Canaveral. -- Tom Neff UUCP: ...!cmcl2!phri!dasys1!tneff "None of your toys CIS: 76556,2536 MCI: TNEFF will function..." GEnie: TOMNEFF BIX: are you kidding?