FHD@TAMCBA.BITNET (H. Alan Montgomery) (06/08/88)
Somewhere along here I have lost track of what we are trying to do. I thought maybe if I displayed my train of logic someone could show me where the flaw in my thinking is. First off, I am a task oriented person who is not very socially adept. To me when a problem comes up you marshal your forces, get the best people available to attack the problem and then go until the problem is either solved or has become acceptablely uncomfortable. The best people in any field normally come with alot of unwanted baggage and are generally not people you would hang out with for fun. You work with the best whether you like them or not, because they get results. I have noticed in this list and in the SIG on CompuServe and in the various space publications that there is alot of hopelessness out there. The dream of easy access to space in our lifetime seems to be drifting slowly but surely out of our reach. The response to this goal denial is a search for a scapegoat, someone to take the blame for the unacceptable possibility that no one alive right now, today will will get to space in person before they die. To me as a social misfit the concept of a scapegoat seems silly, not only a waste of time, but making the possibility of goal acheivement even more remote. In the Seventies, a great many mistakes were made by the NASA, space activists, and other involved individuals. We cannot change those mistakes. We cannot do anything to make those mistakes go away by attacking the people who made them. Do you think that the people who made the mistakes are feeling great about the mistakes? Do you think the administrators at NASA is saying, "Wow, we sure did make a good choice in making the Shuttle the only access to space"? Come on, get real! We live in an imperfect world, a good choice now sometimes becomes a disasterous choice later. Right now the majority of America's corporations are owned by institutions (mutual funds, pension plans, insurance companies, etc.) who are risk averse. The money which could come from large corporations is just not there. Looking for Boeing or GM or Rockwell to move into space without government support is just wishful thinking. Any manager in today's economic environment who suggested a program which did not pay off in six months is looking to be unemployed. It may turn out that NASA was in league with the tooth fairy to deny us access to space on purpose. I doubt it though. I would believe in stupidity, short sightedness, and just plain ignorance before I would believe malice. So what does all this mean. To me it means that the bickering and witch hunting have got to stop. It means that we have got to start looking to lower the capital risk to getting to space. It means that we cannot depend on THEM (whoever they are) to get us to space. Something has to done to make each step into space profitable. Not twenty years in the future, but six months in the future. It means that we need to keep NASA plugging ahead, so that at least some door is open, some option available. As long as space has a greater than six month payoff, no non-astronaut is going to visit there. If you truely want to go to space, stop bitching about the people who are working toward the same goal you are, no matter how flawed you think they are, because they at least agree with you in principle. Somehow or another the space movement has gotten sidetracked into looking at the causes of our failures and stopped searching for answers to our problems. NASA and the big companies will not search for solutions. If you go to bed at night screaming "I WANT TO GO!!!!", then you best start looking for ways to lower the payoff time for a space venture. Does that mean that we need a cost to orbit of $2/pound? No, it means that an investor can get a positive rate of return within six months. The rate of return does not even have to be above 5%. So the bottom line here is that we need many small moneymakers which add up to a big project, not one big project which just MIGHT be a big moneymaker. You best also stop feeling hopeless and helpless, because both of those emotions cause you to do stupid, self-destructive things.