tneff@well.UUCP (Tom Neff) (01/23/89)
Henry's uncharacteristically cranky followup to Paul Dietz's bit on Van
Allen, colonies vs probes etc., leads me to suspect we are treading on
emotional ground here. Nevertheless at the moment I have to side with
Van Allen so far as the appropriateness of probing, rather than
visiting, the solar system goes. I propose five phases of human
development in space:
1. unmanned probes,
2. manned visits,
3. manned research stations,
4. semiautomated resource extraction (mining, power, whatever),
5. full scale "residential" colonization.
The boundaries of some of these are
subjective and one may evolve into another gradually without anyone
quite noticing. There are also four "zones" of space for the purposes
of discussing exploration:
A. earth orbit (LEO out to GEO);
B. cislunar including the lunar surface;
C. the nearer minor planets including Mars and Venus
(and perhaps the asteroid belt),
D. Far Away (Jupiter and beyond).
Now it's fair to assess what stage each of these zones is presently in,
and where it makes sense to take each zone in the short term and long
term future. I will let this posting circulate before presuming to
supply answers of my own; perhaps it can serve as a basis for
discussion.
--
Tom Neff tneff@well.UUCP
or tneff@dasys1.UUCPszabonj@humpback (Nick Szabo) (01/24/89)
In article <10443@well.UUCP> tneff@well.UUCP (Tom Neff) writes: >I propose five phases of human >development in space: > > 1. unmanned probes, > 2. manned visits, > 3. manned research stations, > 4. semiautomated resource extraction (mining, power, whatever), > 5. full scale "residential" colonization. > >There are also four "zones" of space for the purposes >of discussing exploration: > > A. earth orbit (LEO out to GEO); > B. cislunar including the lunar surface; > C. the nearer minor planets including Mars and Venus > (and perhaps the asteroid belt), > D. Far Away (Jupiter and beyond). We are currently in phase 1 for all zones and phase 2 for LEO. Phase 4 can be reached without phases 2 and 3. There should also be a phase "1a", fully automated resource extraction. We are currently operating in this phase with regard to information resources (remote sensing, communications, etc.) Material and energy resource extraction may also operate in phase 1a for a time, depending on available technology. Note that the energy differences between the Earth's surface and zone A are large compared with the energy differences of the other zones. Near earth asteroids should be classified in zone B, as they roughly correspond in energy level to the lunar surface. In many situations, the energy differences between zones B, C, and D, will be outweighed by other concerns, such as the type and quality of environments (eg minerals) available in the different parts of each zone. Furthermore, zone D has more potential resources than C, and C than B. We must conclude, with the knowledge available today, that each zone is roughly of equal concern for explorations leading to space development. In summary, phases 1, 1a, 4, and 5 are the most important to space colonization, where 1a is *fully* automated resource extraction. Phases 2 and 3 are expensive alternatives of last resort. All zones are important to space exploration. -------------------------------- Nick Szabo szabonj@fred.cs.washington.edu