henry@utzoo.uucp (Henry Spencer) (03/13/89)
[There was a single issue for the 19th and 26th of December. Alas, this was a special issue on Space Business, and it's just crammed with relevant stuff. If you're wondering why I haven't been posting for a while, it's been partly because doing this one looked like a real chore. In sheer self-defence, I'm simply going to skip much -- I'm running too big a backlog to do the multi-part posting that would be needed to do it justice.] Editorial urging Bush administration to do what Reagan failed to do: set and stick to a consistent policy, so that would-be space entrepreneurs know the ground rules. Japan's BS-2B TV-broadcast satellite loses its backup telemetry encoder (the primary one failed a year ago); operations are not affected yet, but diagnosis of any problem would be difficult. OSC/Hercules to offer a variant of the Pegasus third stage for payloads that need extra power: a 1.5kW solar array can be carried to orbit in the avionics bay, without affecting payload volume. Tile materials and technicians may have to be diverted from refurbishing Columbia (due to fly in July, with tile work the limiting factor) to get Atlantis ready to launch Magellan at the end of April. (Atlantis took more tile damage than expected on STS-27.) Minor design changes in Hermes: it has shrunk slightly, and the conical adapter fitting it to Ariane 5 stays with it in orbit. The adapter can be used to carry the airlock/docking unit or part of the payload. Defense Secretary Carlucci approves upgrading the Miracl experimental laser for antisatellite tests and satellite vulnerability research. It will not cost much. Some USAF officials opposed it, on the grounds that it would start another Asat battle with Congress. Another win for humans over machinery :-) in space: when Aerospatiale's ERA deployable space structure failed to deploy from Mir, Alexander Volkov waited until Mir was out of contact with ground stations and then started kicking ERA's canister, which did the trick. DoD defers decision on wide-area surveillance part of Air Defense Initiative, putting the USAF space-based radar program on hold for another year. First commercial launch of Ariane 4 successful on Dec 10, carrying Astra 1A (Luxembourg TV broadcast) and Skynet 4B (British military comsat). Many pages of commercial-space coverage. US commercial spaceflight has been hurt by government policy vacillation; experiences like CDSF and Landsat have, according to Charlie Walker (three-time commercial Shuttle astronaut) "tainted space commercialization... Potential investors have seen this and decided this area is too weird to get involved in." The stock-market crash and all the launch failures didn't help either. (However, foreign investors are reported by some to be less timid.) Some commercial-space companies basically exist in name only, with their original plans indefinitely on hold. David Thompson, president of Orbital Sciences, revives the idea of the government paying for payload lofted to orbit. He proposes a million pounds a year, starting in the mid-90s, participation restricted to commercial operators who can launch at under $1000/pound. [Note that he obviously thinks OSC/Hercules could make money at that price. The current US prices are $3000-$5000/lb for the biggest launchers, and worse for the small ones, depending on exactly which numbers you look at.] The backlog of small commercial payloads waiting for shuttle secondary- payload space remains monumental. The space station may not be the answer, either: Christopher Podsiadly (head of 3M's space research group), for example, fears that the bureaucracy of getting things to and from the station will be prohibitive. (He's also worried about the possibility of another long hiatus in shuttle flights if there is another accident.) Article about the very different Eosat and Spot situations. David Julyan, execVP of Spot Image US, observes that *he* can say convincingly that *his* company has an ongoing commitment to more satellites and to continuity of data, which Eosat can't. Art Dula, US rep for Soviet space products, reports that some US government agencies are buying Soviet space photos from Soyuzkarta via him. He won't say who; "if I did that, they wouldn't be customers any more". Soyuzkarta delivery is slow and they can't deliver digital data, because their satellites are film-return types, but they give 5-meter resolution (unenhanced), which is better than anyone else. Protein crystal growth in free fall is a major boom area, since good crystals are vital for determining molecular structure and they are hard to grow on Earth. Small experiments were run on STS-26. Payload Systems Inc. has contracted with Glavkosmos to fly six commercial protein-crystal payloads aboard Mir; the first goes up in July, although it will be a "pathfinder" mission aimed mostly at checking out the hardware. The European Intospace consortium is launching protein-crystal payloads piggyback on Chinese capsules. A Spacelab mission in 1991 will carry an experimental system that will allow monitoring of crystal growth by astronauts and interactive modification for better results. 3M is investing heavily in space-based materials research, primarily basic research rather than immediate product development. They are sticking to a long-term plan made years ago; Challenger delayed it slightly but has not altered it significantly. [I'm glad to see that there is *one* US organization with its head on straight. Too bad there aren't more...] Generally, small US companies offering support services are doing better than big ones with independent projects. The big independent projects have a nasty tendency to be heavily dependent on the government. There is skepticism about NASA's latest notion about private funding for space-station auxiliaries. The government would be the major customer, and it is virtually impossible for the government to sign multi-year contracts or contracts with cancellation penalties. The investors are expected to be unenthusiastic. The US launch industry is in good shape right now, but will have lean years to weather when the current payload backlog is exhausted. The habit of depending on the government won't help; Martin Marietta's president observes that there is *no* commercial launch industry in existence right now, only various degrees of government support. Long March will be a nasty competitor; if there is a quota on Long March launches, there will be a problem deciding who gets them (they will probably remain cheaper than Western launches). Arianespace fears that ALS will end up being government subsidized, and says that it does not think factor-of-ten reductions in launch costs are possible with chemical rockets. [Obviously they haven't talked to OSC lately.] [Speaking of OSC...] OSC/Hercules reports strong interest in Pegasus launches, which is gratifying because the uncertainty of the market is the biggest problem for small-launcher proponents. Pegasus's fairly low cost ($6M for a turnkey mission, half the going rate) and flexibility (air launch means full choice of orbits and the ability to bring the launch site to the customer) are credited. OSC/Hercules will be acquiring a commercial transport as a launch aircraft for non-government payloads; it will be ready for service in 1990. Their central base of operations is likely to be at Mojave, since it has good weather, long runways, and a research/test orientation, but there are other possibilities (notably Hawaii, which is keen on getting into the space industry) and no final decision has been made. Amroc plans a suborbital launch in summer, another a couple of months later, and an orbital launch in early 1990. Customers are starting to appear. LTV, which makes the Scout, has decided that it's still primarily a government contractor. It is interested in commercial business but does not think there is enough of a market to build hardware on speculation for it. Comsat orders are picking up, as companies start to gear up to replace aging satellites. Satellite owners are decidedly annoyed with the US government: between unilateral cancellation of their shuttle contracts, inordinately slow government response on insurance issues, and restrictions on use of foreign launchers, they have reason to be displeased. At least one ex-holder of Shuttle launch slots is considering suing. Geostar now thinks that "the market for knowing where others are is greater than 10 times the market for knowing where you are", at least among its current customer base (trucking companies and such). Austria has signed with Glavkosmos for a commercial flight of an Austrian to Mir, with Britain, Germany, Malaysia, and India negotiating. France has been firmly told that there will be no, repeat no, more free flights: "Our policy now is: if you want to fly, buy a ticket." The Soviets are also busily signing agreements to fly unmanned payloads, with Payload Systems' contract for microgravity flights considered a major victory since it's their first US customer. They are also offering other countries the option of docking their own specialized modules with Mir; India is reported to be interested. -- Welcome to Mars! Your | Henry Spencer at U of Toronto Zoology passport and visa, comrade? | uunet!attcan!utzoo!henry henry@zoo.toronto.edu
chiaravi@silver.bacs.indiana.edu (Lucius Chiaraviglio) (03/14/89)
In article <1989Mar13.034523.10259@utzoo.uucp> henry@utzoo.uucp (Henry Spencer) writes: >Art Dula, US rep for Soviet space products, reports that some US >government agencies are buying Soviet space photos from Soyuzkarta via >him. He won't say who; "if I did that, they wouldn't be customers >any more". [. . .] I can see it now: "_The New York Times_, September 7, 1990: Intelligence Scam Exposed: Heads Will Roll. Associated Press, Washington, D. C. -- Today White House Officials confirmed that an investigation of the use of illegally-purchased Soviet satellite photographs by the Central Intelligence Agency and the Department of Defense is in progress. In the second of two hastily-arranged press conferences, President Bush promised to 'carry the investigation to the fullest extent,' and blamed the situation on the Carter Administration. . . ." :-) -- We hope. . . -- | Lucius Chiaraviglio | ARPA: chiaravi@silver.bacs.indiana.edu BITNET: chiaravi@IUBACS.BITNET (IUBACS hoses From: fields; INCLUDE RET ADDR) ARPA-gatewayed BITNET: chiaravi%IUBACS.BITNET@vm.cc.purdue.edu Alt ARPA-gatewayed BITNET: chiaravi%IUBACS.BITNET@cunyvm.cuny.edu