roberts@CMR.ICST.NBS.GOV (John Roberts) (03/17/89)
>>It is in the nature of statistical evidence that it is hard to make an >>absolutely final case, but this study would have to be a disappointment to >>anyone seeking evidence for astrology. >>Jeffrey Kegler, President, Algorists, >>jeffrey@algor2.UU.NET or uunet!algor2!jeffrey >>1788 Wainwright DR, Reston VA 22090 >What, pray tell, is the model for any of these planets having anything to >do with base hits? >Why would anyone waste time testing a theory without a model? Why not >test for correlations with the insect population for that year? Or the >average age of the guests on the Ed Sullivan show? Or, etc, etc.... >I'd be more interested in things like the effect of temperature, humidity >or morning breakfasts on base hits....:-) > Paul K. Rodman > rodman@mfci.uucp The forces described by astrology may not have any significant effect on humanity, but the institution of astrology does have a strong influence. It effects the views of a large part of the population toward science and logical thought. The wife of a recent president scheduled important government actions and decisions based on the predictions of an astrologer (Read "Stranger in a Strange Land"). The Ed Sullivan worshippers, if there are any, have much less influence on human society. Since astrology makes claims about the future, its validity can be tested to some extent by statistical analysis. In particular, it is plausible to infer that base hits, which are of great personal importance to professional players, ought to be influenced by the "astrological forces", as shown by correlation with some astrological phenomenon, if these forces indeed have considerable influence over human existence, as claimed by the astrologers. (The test is more valid if it is established in advance that the players are unaware of any astrological predictions while they play.) If someone is willing to undertake this job at his own expense, it would appear that he is performing a valuable service. A similar experiment was performed a year or two ago, to determine whether a specific cryogenic treatment would improve the mechanical properties of tool steel. Test subjects used treated and untreated tools, without knowing which was which, with the net result that no significant improvement was found. Assuming test conditions were properly controlled, I would consider this a legitimate scientific inquiry. By the way, the moon, by providing variable illumination at night and influencing the tides, has a demonstrable influence on animal and human activity, on a month-by-month basis. John Roberts roberts@cmr.icst.nbs.gov