roberts@CMR.ICST.NBS.GOV (John Roberts) (03/17/89)
> I find it interesting in the middle of the manned vs unmanned debat here >the Soviets maintain a continously crewed space station while sending at >the same time their most complicated interplanetary mission to Mars. Maybe >we should learn a bit from their style of space operations. > Glenn Chapman > MIT Lincoln Lab One thing I would like to learn about the Soviet space program is how much it costs. I have seen numerous postings on the net comparing the American and Soviet space programs, but never a solid attempt to estimate the actual cost to the Soviets of a specific launch or of their entire space program. It is probable that the cost to launch a person into orbit is less than that of the US, but by how much? I suspect that the quoted price of $10 million for a launch is heavily subsidized. There are at least three plausible incentives for maintaining an artificially low rate: - Prestige: It is politically valuable to be able to claim that you can conduct a manned launch for only $10 million. - Foreign Exchange: The USSR has only a limited supply of Western currency for the purchase of food, technology, and military secrets (at bargain rates). Thus a US dollar can be considerably more useful to the Soviets than its exchange equivalent in rubles. - Economies of scale: The ability to maintain a high volume of launches and to accelerate the learning curve (and possibly to discourage the competition) can make it economically attractive to sell products or services for less than the actual cost. This has been a favorite Japanese strategy for years. Similarly, the Energiya is a fine booster, and has enjoyed two demonstration launches, but this does not guarantee that it is not fabulously expensive to build and launch. To reiterate my main point, I have seen many *qualitative* comparisons of the costs of the Soviet and American space programs, with the general "feel" that the Soviet program is more cost-efficient, but unless there is a reasonable estimate of the actual numbers, a *quantitative* comparison is impossible, and the usefulness of any resultant analysis is severely limited. John Roberts roberts@cmr.icst.nbs.gov
henry@utzoo.uucp (Henry Spencer) (03/18/89)
In article <8903170353.AA25291@cmr.icst.nbs.gov> roberts@CMR.ICST.NBS.GOV (John Roberts) writes: >... It is probable that the cost to launch a person into orbit is >less than that of the US, but by how much? I suspect that the quoted price >of $10 million for a launch is heavily subsidized. At optimistic US launch prices ($3000/lb), $10M will put 3300 lbs into orbit. I don't know offhand just how much a Soyuz weighs, but a ton and a half does not sound like too little to be one person's share of a three- man spacecraft. Given that the Soviets almost certainly have rather lower launch costs than the US -- for one thing, they mass-produce most of the hardware -- I find it hard to see how they can be losing money on it. >There are at least three >plausible incentives for maintaining an artificially low rate: >... > - Economies of scale: The ability to maintain a high volume of launches > and to accelerate the learning curve (and possibly to discourage the > competition) can make it economically attractive to sell products or > services for less than the actual cost... I rather doubt that the Soviets are expecting enough of a rush of Western customers to significantly improve their existing economies of scale. We're talking about a space program that has a launch every three or four *days*, remember. >Similarly, the Energiya is a fine booster, and has enjoyed two demonstration >launches, but this does not guarantee that it is not fabulously expensive >to build and launch. Energia costs are an open question, since it's a new booster using some new technology. I would note, however, that (a) cost per pound to orbit for the Saturn V was not significantly higher than current US launchers, and (b) Energia is supposedly already committed to production volumes (first batch of 50) that most Western launcher manufacturers can only dream about. -- Welcome to Mars! Your | Henry Spencer at U of Toronto Zoology passport and visa, comrade? | uunet!attcan!utzoo!henry henry@zoo.toronto.edu