std_oler@HG.ULeth.CA (Cary Oler) (01/14/91)
--- SOLAR TERRESTRIAL FORECAST AND REVIEW ---
January 13 to January 22, 1991
Report Based In-Part from Data Obtained from the
Space Environment Services Center
Boulder Colorado
--------
SOLAR TERRESTRIAL REVIEW FOR 06 JANUARY TO 12 JANUARY.
Solar activity over the past week ranged from low to moderate. The
early part of the week proved to be the most energetic, with Regions 6444 and
6447 providing the majority of M-class flare events. These regions have
decreased in flare output over the past several days, yet remain capable of
spawning M-class flares. Region 6444 is the largest region on the disk at
the present time. Its size is a respectable 4,740 million square kilometers.
It encompasses a moderately complex magnetic region classed as a beta-gamma
configuration. There are presently 69 sunspots associated with this region,
which has remained relatively stable this week. This region could become
capable of spawning major energetic flares. It has the size, the sunspot
complexity and the magnetic capabilities, but the low levels of flare
activity which have been observed since it's appearance on the east limb
would seem to indicate that its present inactive state will continue. The
penumbral extent of this region is impressive when viewed in white light.
This region will be observed closely for signs of increased flare production.
Region 6447 is the next-largest region on the disk, but is dwarfed
by Region 6444 by 3,870 million square kilometers. However, it has
produced some frequent C-class flaring and has now become the most
prolific flare producer currently on the solar disk. It consists of 29
sunspots arranged in a Beta magnetic configuration. This region has changed
very little over the past several days. No significant growth or decay has
been noted.
The intense stratospheric warming continues over Europe. The warming is
associated with a strong anticyclone. The warming is now spreading from
Europe towards the east. The stratospheric warming could begin to weaken
this week. The stratospheric warming alert should continue, however, for the
next 4 to 7 days.
Geomagnetic activity became more active this week in what is thought to
be a response to an equatorial solar coronal hole which passed the central
meridian earlier this week. Brief periods of low-intensity minor storming
were observed over high latitudes on 12 and 13 January. Some middle latitude
locations also experienced brief periods of minor storming.
The increased solar corpuscular emissions spawned auroral activity that
was visible over high and northerly middle latitudes on 12 and 13 January.
Activity was moderate over high latitudes, and became mostly low with
occassional periods of moderate activity over northerly middle latitudes.
Also of special note were the two chemical releases which produced small
artificial auroras on 13 January at 02:17 UT and 07:05 UT. The next chemical
release will be a Barium release and is scheduled to occur at 04:12 UT on
15 January.
HF radio propagation conditions have been very good this past week.
Enhanced ionizing solar radiation over the past week has enhanced MUF's by as
much as 20% higher than expected. However, the early to mid part of the week
contained occassional disruptions due to solar flare activity on the sunlit
side of the earth. High latitudes experienced degraded conditions due to the
increased auroral and geomagnetic activity on 12 and 13 January, but
conditions have quickly returned to normal.
VHF propagation conditions this week were normal. No significant
periods of enhanced or degraded conditions occurred this week. Some 6 meter
openings may have been possible over some locations this week due to the
enhanced MUF's.
SHORT TERM SOLAR TERRESTRIAL FORECAST
Solar activity is expected to remain low to moderate over the next week.
Regions 6444 and 6447 will continue to produce C-class and isolated M-class
flares. Region 6444 could also produce a major flare if it begins to
develope or decay over the next week. These two regions are the only two
regions capable of producing any significant activity. They will be observed
closely for signs of developement. The solar indices should begin to fall
this week, having peaked at the predicted level of 220 on 10 January.
Geomagnetic activity should return to quiet levels by 14 or 15 January
over most latitudes. Activity should remain predominantly quiet with
occassional unsettled periods throughout the coming week. No storm periods
are anticipated, barring any significant solar activity.
Auroral activity will likewise return to dormant levels over the coming
week. No significant activity is expected over low, middle or high latitudes
this week (again, barring any significant solar activity).
HF radio propagation conditions will be very good early in the period,
with excellent potential for DX. This potential and the quality of DX will
decay, however, as the week progresses due to the expected decline of
ionizing solar radiation. The chemical releases will have no effect on the
quality of HF propagation conditions. However, any curious anomalies should
be reported to std_oler@hg.uleth.ca.
VHF propagation conditions will be normal this week. No significant
opportunities for DX are expected this week. SID enhancements may be noticed
over sunlit areas, particularly during periods of M-class flaring. SID
enhancements will be short-lived, and of minor intensity unless major flaring
develops. No auroral backscatter communications will be possible this week.
SUMMARY OF ALL ACTIVE REGIONS VISIBLE ON THE SOLAR DISK AS OF 13 JANUARY
Region # Location LO Area Class LL Spots Magnetic Type
-------- -------- --- ---- ----- -- ----- -------------
6437 S16W75 096 0000 AXX 00 001 ALPHA
6444 N15E02 019 4740 FKO 22 069 BETA-GAMMA
6446 N08W29 050 0030 BXO 04 004 BETA
6447 S07E35 346 0870 EAO 15 029 BETA
6448 S34W44 065 0120 CSO 06 006 BETA
6450 N13W19 040 0000 AXX 02 004 ALPHA
6451 N14W25 046 0120 CSO 07 008 BETA
6452 S20E41 340 0180 CAO 05 008 BETA
6453 S13E31 350 0000 AXX 01 002 ALPHA
NOTES: Area is in million square kilometers. Angular extent (LL) and solar
longitude (LO) are in degree's. For more information regarding the terminology
used above, request the Glossary of Solar Terrestrial Terms from:
"std_oler@hg.uleth.ca".
H-ALPHA PLAGES WITHOUT SPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AS OF 24:00 UT ON 13 JANUARY.
REGION LOCATION LO COMMENTS (IF ANY)
------ -------- --- -------------------------------
6438 S11W55 076 NONE
6449 S23W26 047
ACTIVE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN BETWEEN 14 AND 16 JANUARY
Region Latitude Longitude (Helio.)
------ -------- ---------
6420 S26 251
6423 S21 260
6424 S10 254
NOTES:
For definitions regarding the above, request the "Glossary of Solar
Terrestrial Terms" from "std_oler@hg.uleth.ca".
GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF RECENT PLANETARY (GLOBAL) GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
Cumulative Geomagnetic Activity History
Peak Planetary Geomagnetic Activity during the past 96 hours
____________________________________________________________________
| EXTREMELY SEVERE | | | | | VERY HIGH! |
| VERY SEVERE STORM | | | | | HIGH |
| SEVERE STORM | | | | | MODERATE |
| MAJOR STORM | | | | | LOW - MOD. |
| MINOR STORM | | | | | LOW |
| VERY ACTIVE | | | | * | NONE |
| ACTIVE | * | ** | * | ** * | NONE |
| UNSETTLED | ** ***|* ******| *******|********| NONE |
| QUIET |********|********|********|********| NONE |
| VERY QUIET |********|********|********|********| NONE |
|-------------------|--------|--------|--------|--------|------------|
| Geomagnetic Field | Thu. | Fri. | Sat. | Sun. | Anomaly |
| Conditions | Given in 3-hour intervals | Intensity |
|____________________________________________________________________|
NOTES:
The data above represents planetary geomagnetic activity. Data from
many magnetic observatories around the world are used in constructing the
above chart. The first graph line for each day represents geomagnetic
activity which occurred between 00 UT and 03 UT. The second graph line
represents activity which occurred between 03 UT and 06 UT, etc. For
information regarding the interpretation and/or use of these charts, send
a request for the document "Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports" to:
std_oler@hg.uleth.ca.
PLANETARY 10-DAY GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY OUTLOOK (13 JANUARY - 22 JANUARY)
________________________________________________________________________
| EXTREMELY SEVERE | | | | | | | | | | | VERY HIGH! |
| VERY SEVERE STORM | | | | | | | | | | | HIGH |
| SEVERE STORM | | | | | | | | | | | MODERATE |
| MAJOR STORM | | | | | | | | | | | LOW - MOD. |
| MINOR STORM | | | | | | | | | | | LOW |
| VERY ACTIVE | | | | | | | | | | | NONE |
| ACTIVE | | | | | | | | | | | NONE |
| UNSETTLED |***| * | | | **| * | | | *|***| NONE |
| QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE |
| VERY QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE |
|-------------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|------------|
| Geomagnetic Field |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| Anomaly |
| Conditions | Given in 8-hour intervals | Intensity |
|________________________________________________________________________|
NOTES:
Predicted geomagnetic activity is based heavily on recurrent phenomena.
Transient energetic solar events cannot be predicted reliably over periods in
excess of several days. Hence, there may be some deviations from the
predictions due to the unpredictable transient solar component.
GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST 60 DAYS
Cumulative Graphical Analysis of
Solar Activity
____________________________________________________________
249| | MOD.
242| F = Major Flare(s) | MOD.
235| *FFF | MOD.
229| **FFF | MOD.
222| * ****FFF | MOD.
215| * *****FFF* ** | MOD.
208|*** *****FFF* * **** | MOD.
201|**** F*****FFF** * ****** | MOD.
195|***** F*****FFF*** *** * ** *******| MOD.
188|****** *F*****FFF******* * FF*F**** *******| LOW
181|******** **F*****FFF*********FFF*F******* ********| LOW
174|********* ***F*****FFF*********FFF*F******* *********| LOW
167|*********** * ****F*****FFF*********FFF*F******************| LOW
161|*********** ******F*****FFF*********FFF*F******************| LOW
154|***********F*******F*****FFF*********FFF*F******************| LOW
------------------------------------------------------------
Cumulative 60 day Solar Activity Record
Start Date: November 15, 1990
NOTES:
Left-hand column digits represent the 10.7 cm solar radio flux obtained
from Ottawa. The right-hand column describes the relative solar activity for
that period based on the average number of major and minor flares that can be
expected for related solar flux values. Plot lines labeled with the letter "F"
represent days where at least one major flare occurred (ie. class M5 or greater
flare).
GRAPHICAL 20-DAY SOLAR ACTIVITY PREDICTION
Solar Activity
_________________________________________________________________
| 229 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 223 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 216 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 209 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 202 | | |**|**|**| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 195 |**|**| | | |**| | | | | | | | | | | | |**|**|
| 188 | | | | | | |**| | | | | | | | | | |**| | |
| 181 | | | | | | | |**| | | | | | | | |**| | | |
| 174 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |**| | | | |
| 168 | | | | | | | | |**| | | | | | | | | | | |
| 161 | | | | | | | | | |**| | | | |**| | | | | |
| 154 | | | | | | | | | | |**| | |**| | | | | | |
| 147 | | | | | | | | | | | |**|**| | | | | | | |
|-----|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|
|Solar|13|14|15|16|17|18|19|20|21|22|23|24|25|26|27|28|29|30|31|01|
|Flux | January | |
-----------------------------------------------------------------
HF RADIO SIGNAL PROPAGATION PREDICTIONS (13 JANUARY - 22 JANUARY)
High Latitude Paths
________________________________________________________
| EXTREMELY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | |
| VERY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | |
| GOOD | | | | | | | | | | |
| FAIR | *| **| **| *| *| **|***|***|* *| *|
| POOR |** |* |* |** |** |* | | | * |** |
| VERY POOR | | | | | | | | | | |
| EXTREMELY POOR | | | | | | | | | | |
|----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PROPAGATION |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|
| QUALITY | Given in 8-Hour UT Intervals |
--------------------------------------------------------
Middle Latitude Paths
________________________________________________________
| EXTREMELY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | |
| VERY GOOD |***|***|***|***|* *|* *|* *|* *|* *| *|
| GOOD | | | | | * | * | * | * | * |** |
| FAIR | | | | | | | | | | |
| POOR | | | | | | | | | | |
| VERY POOR | | | | | | | | | | |
| EXTREMELY POOR | | | | | | | | | | |
|----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PROPAGATION |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|
| QUALITY | Given in 8-Hour UT Intervals |
--------------------------------------------------------
Low Latitude Paths
________________________________________________________
| EXTREMELY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | |
| VERY GOOD |***|***|***|***|* *|* *|* *|* *|* *|* *|
| GOOD | | | | | * | * | * | * | * | * |
| FAIR | | | | | | | | | | |
| POOR | | | | | | | | | | |
| VERY POOR | | | | | | | | | | |
| EXTREMELY POOR | | | | | | | | | | |
|----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PROPAGATION |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|
| QUALITY | Given in 8-Hour UT Intervals |
--------------------------------------------------------
NOTES:
High latitudes >= 55 degree's north latitude
Middle latitudes >= 40 < 55 degree's north latitude
Low latitudes < 40 degree's north latitude
POTENTIAL VHF DX PROPAGATION PREDICTIONS (13 JANUARY - 22 JANUARY)
INCLUDES SID AND AURORAL BACKSCATTER ENHANCEMENT PREDICTIONS
HIGH LATITUDES
__________________________________________________ ___________________
| SIGNAL | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | | SID ENHANCEMENT |
| QUALITY |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T|
|__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
| VERY GOOD| | | | | | | | | | | 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|ABOVE NORM| | | | | | | | | | | 20%| | |*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
| NORMAL|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 40%| | | | | | | | | | |
|BELOW NORM| | | | | | | | | | | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
| VERY POOR| | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
| BLACKOUT| | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
|==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===| |-------------------|
| 100% | | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
| 80% | | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
| 60% | | | | | | | | | | | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
| 40% | | | | | | | | | | | 40%| | | | | | | | | | |
| 20% |* *|* *| * | * | * | * | * | * |***|***| 20%|*|*| | | | | | |*|*|
| 0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|----------+---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|CHANCE OF |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T|
| VHF DX | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | |AURORAL BACKSCATTER|
|__________|_______________________________________| |___________________|
MIDDLE LATITUDES
__________________________________________________ ___________________
| SIGNAL | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | | SID ENHANCEMENT |
| QUALITY |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T|
|__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
| VERY GOOD| | | | | | | | | | | 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|ABOVE NORM| | | | | | | | | | | 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
| NORMAL|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 40%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|BELOW NORM| | | | | | | | | | | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
| VERY POOR| | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
| BLACKOUT| | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
|==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===| |-------------------|
| 100% | | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
| 80% | | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
| 60% | | | | | | | | | | | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
| 40% | | | | | | | | | | | 40%| | | | | | | | | | |
| 20% | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | 20%| | | | | | | | | | |
| 0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|----------+---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|CHANCE OF |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T|
| VHF DX | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | |AURORAL BACKSCATTER|
|__________|_______________________________________| |___________________|
LOW LATITUDES
__________________________________________________ ___________________
| SIGNAL | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | | SID ENHANCEMENT |
| QUALITY |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T|
|__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
| VERY GOOD| | | | | | | | | | | 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|ABOVE NORM| | | | | | | | | | | 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
| NORMAL|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 40%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|BELOW NORM| | | | | | | | | | | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
| VERY POOR| | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
| BLACKOUT| | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
|==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===| |-------------------|
| 100% | | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
| 80% | | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
| 60% | | | | | | | | | | | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
| 40% | | | | | | | | | | | 40%| | | | | | | | | | |
| 20% | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | 20%| | | | | | | | | | |
| 0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|----------+---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|CHANCE OF |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue| |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T|
| VHF DX | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | |AURORAL BACKSCATTER|
|__________|_______________________________________| |___________________|
NOTES:
These VHF DX prediction charts are defined for the 50 MHz to 220 MHz
bands. They are based primarily on phenomena which can affect VHF DX
propagation globally. They should be used only as a guide to potential
DX conditions on VHF bands. Latitudinal boundaries are the same as those for
the HF predictions charts. For more information, request the document
"Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports" from: "std_oler@hg.uleth.ca".
AURORAL ACTIVITY PREDICTIONS (13 JANUARY - 22 JANUARY)
High Latitude Locations
________________________________________________________
| EXTREMELY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | |
| VERY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | |
| HIGH | | | | | | | | | | |
| MODERATE | | | | | | | | | | |
| LOW | * | * | | | * | * | | | * | * |
| NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
|----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AURORAL |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|
| INTENSITY | Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight |
--------------------------------------------------------
Middle Latitude Locations
________________________________________________________
| EXTREMELY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | |
| VERY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | |
| HIGH | | | | | | | | | | |
| MODERATE | | | | | | | | | | |
| LOW | | | | | | | | | * | * |
| NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
|----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AURORAL |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|
| INTENSITY | Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight |
--------------------------------------------------------
Low Latitude Locations
________________________________________________________
| EXTREMELY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | |
| VERY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | |
| HIGH | | | | | | | | | | |
| MODERATE | | | | | | | | | | |
| LOW | | | | | | | | | | |
| NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
|----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AURORAL |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|
| INTENSITY | Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight |
--------------------------------------------------------
NOTE:
For more information regarding these charts, send a request for the
document, "Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports" to: std_oler@hg.uleth.ca.
** End of Report **