yamauchi@cs.rochester.edu (Brian Yamauchi) (02/06/91)
In article <197.27AE8D32@nss.FIDONET.ORG> Paul.Blase@nss.FIDONET.ORG (Paul Blase) writes:
NS> The only thing the Japanese really have over us is efficiency --
The key is that Japanese Industry is taking the initiative and not merely
relying upon government funding. Maybe we're more innovative, but they
are DOING it.
Japanese companies also seem to have more of a long-term vision with
regard to space development. I've heard that Shimizu has plans for an
orbital space station (for tourism), a lunar base, and a Mars base,
and that Ohbayashi has plans for a lunar mining complex.
Whether these plans will be translated into reality is another issue,
but, still, I wonder whether one could suggest similar ideas to an
American Fortune 500 company without being laughed out of the
boardroom... (or whether one would get to the boardroom in the first
place).
--
_______________________________________________________________________________
Brian Yamauchi University of Rochester
yamauchi@cs.rochester.edu Department of Computer Science
_______________________________________________________________________________szabo@crg5.UUCP (Nick Szabo) (02/06/91)
In article <YAMAUCHI.91Feb5130829@tern.cs.rochester.edu> yamauchi@cs.rochester.edu (Brian Yamauchi) writes: >In article <197.27AE8D32@nss.FIDONET.ORG> Paul.Blase@nss.FIDONET.ORG (Paul Blase) writes: > > NS> The only thing the Japanese really have over us is efficiency -- > > The key is that Japanese Industry is taking the initiative and not merely > relying upon government funding. Maybe we're more innovative, but they > are DOING it. > >Japanese companies also seem to have more of a long-term vision with >regard to space development. I've heard that Shimizu has plans for an >orbital space station (for tourism), a lunar base, and a Mars base, >and that Ohbayashi has plans for a lunar mining complex. The U.S. also has "plans" for this space mythology, for what it is worth. No profitable corporation in either country is spending serious money for any of this. BTW the slogan of NASDA -- "quick is beautiful" -- is the opposite of the U.S. space program's fetish with "long term planning", a euphimism for putting off until tomorrow what should be done today. >Whether these plans will be translated into reality is another issue, >but, still, I wonder whether one could suggest similar ideas to an >American Fortune 500 company without being laughed out of the >boardroom... (or whether one would get to the boardroom in the first >place). You would get laughed out of any boardroom of any organization that had even the slightest interest in and knowledge of economic payback. There has yet to be created a business plan for space stations and space bases that is anything close to reasonable in terms of cash flow. The costs are two or more orders of magnitude away from economic payback. I challenge anybody on the net to present a business plan -- the market plan, R&D plan, projected financing and cash flows will suffice -- for any one of the following: * space station * lunar base * Martian base using current launch costs, historical R&D costs for manned space capsules, space-qualified machinery, etc. Fact is, nobody on this net or anywhere else on this planet can present a sound business plan that is within even two orders of magnitude in cost to being profitable. The space station/lunar base/Mars spiel is simply a tradition of space lore mimicked from the previous generation, with no grounding in the technological, economic or scientific reality of the past half-century or next century. Communications satellites and space exploration probes have already turned the previous generation's space plan on its head, and modern automation technology puts it away for good. For the pioneers of today, the plans of the past consist of exactly zero in creativity and imagination, and a big empty set in vision. Not to mention huge losses on the balance sheet of any organization that cares to try them. -- Nick Szabo szabo@sequent.com Embrace Change... Keep the Values... Hold Dear the Laughter...
GIPP@gecrdvm1.crd.ge.com (02/06/91)
In article <YAMAUCHI.91Feb5130829@tern.cs.rochester.edu>, yamauchi@cs.rochester.edu (Brian Yamauchi) says: > >In article <197.27AE8D32@nss.FIDONET.ORG> Paul.Blase@nss.FIDONET.ORG (Paul >Blase) writes: > > NS> The only thing the Japanese really have over us is efficiency -- > > The key is that Japanese Industry is taking the initiative and not merely > relying upon government funding. Maybe we're more innovative, but they > are DOING it. > DOING what? the last I heard, they were having mega-problems with their first truly home-grown rocket launcher. True, they are making good headway with their adapted-imports, but why is it that everyone worries about competition from Arianespace,the chinese, and potential Soviet commerce than from the Japanese. >Japanese companies also seem to have more of a long-term vision with >regard to space development. I've heard that Shimizu has plans for an >orbital space station (for tourism), a lunar base, and a Mars base, >and that Ohbayashi has plans for a lunar mining complex. > >Whether these plans will be translated into reality is another issue, >but, still, I wonder whether one could suggest similar ideas to an >American Fortune 500 company without being laughed out of the >boardroom... (or whether one would get to the boardroom in the first >place). >-- I"ve read lots of similar plans for american-based companies, but like you said, there's a world of difference between paper dreams/ studies and metal bending reality. >______________________________________________________________________________ >_ > >Brian Yamauchi University of Rochester >yamauchi@cs.rochester.edu Department of Computer Science >______________________________________________________________________________ >_
yamauchi@cs.rochester.edu (Brian Yamauchi) (02/07/91)
In article <91037.075048GIPP@GECRDVM1.BITNET> GIPP@gecrdvm1.crd.ge.com writes: In article <YAMAUCHI.91Feb5130829@tern.cs.rochester.edu>, yamauchi@cs.rochester.edu (Brian Yamauchi) says: >Japanese companies also seem to have more of a long-term vision with >regard to space development. I've heard that Shimizu has plans for an >orbital space station (for tourism), a lunar base, and a Mars base, >and that Ohbayashi has plans for a lunar mining complex. > >Whether these plans will be translated into reality is another issue, I"ve read lots of similar plans for american-based companies, but like you said, there's a world of difference between paper dreams/ studies and metal bending reality. True, but I'd still be interested in hearing about any large-scale plans for commercial space development that are being considered by American companies. I've already heard the plans for government-funded bases on the moon and Mars, as well as near-term commercial plans such as ET farms. -- _______________________________________________________________________________ Brian Yamauchi University of Rochester yamauchi@cs.rochester.edu Department of Computer Science _______________________________________________________________________________
GIPP@gecrdvm1.crd.ge.com (02/07/91)
In article <YAMAUCHI.91Feb6125621@heron.cs.rochester.edu>, yamauchi@cs.rochester.edu (Brian Yamauchi) says: > > >True, but I'd still be interested in hearing about any large-scale >plans for commercial space development that are being considered by >American companies. I've already heard the plans for government-funded >bases on the moon and Mars, as well as near-term commercial plans such >as ET farms. >-- The only one that comes to mind immediately is the proposed venture by some company (great reference eh?) that tried to convince NASA to loan/rent/build them a shuttle to ferry approximately 100 people into space for a quick spin around the planet. I forget whether it required a new shuttle or whether this company had a pop in people carrier for an existing shuttle. I read it in ad astra some while back. I think the builders of Space hab have some kind of commercial plan to fly a commercial experiment package on a shuttle, IF they can convince NASA to go along. Memory is coming back now :-), I've thought of some more! Someone had a brilliant idea of orbiting cremated human remains, but couldn't get govt approval, and (I think) couldn't get their rocket to work. then there was Hummingbird Inc's plan to build their PHoenix launch vehicle to send up tourists into space. I believe they actually had paying customers/investors with cash on the dotted line, but then the challenger accident scared them off. then too, I'm sure AWS would be more than happy to tell you about this great space station/launcher package which is real cheap :-). It's an empty shell, so I'm sure that it would make a great space hotel! >______________________________________________________________________________ >_ > >Brian Yamauchi University of Rochester >yamauchi@cs.rochester.edu Department of Computer Science >______________________________________________________________________________ >_