[sci.med] 24 million Americans will die -- seat belts will save them all?

Kdavid@gizzmo.UUCP (David Solan) (10/04/88)

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In article <4868@cbmvax.UUCP> ditto@cbmvax.UUCP (Michael "Ford" Ditto)
writes:

>>24 million Americans will die in the next 10 years without their
>>seat belts on.  Buckle up now!
>
>I'd guess a much, much larger number than that, unless you are only
>counting ones who are in cars at the time ...   :-) :-)

Of course this absolutely positively does NOT belong on
unix-pc.general, but since Mr. Ditto is a most active and
knowledgeable contributor to this group and did care to comment, let
me just state the facts and enlighten him a bit:

In 1988, approximately 48000 people will die in traffic accidents in
America.  Of these, about 26000 will be passenger car occupants.  Of
these, I estimate about 19000 will NOT have seat belts on at the time
of their accidents (assuming you can trust police reports ... hmmmm
hmmmm).  Of these, I estimate about 5000 more on net would have lived
if they had been properly wearing lap and shoulder belts at the time
of their accidents.  Of those wearing seat belts at the time of their
accidents, I estimate that at least 1500 died BECAUSE of their
restraint systems.  This makes a net saving of about 3500 lives per
year if everyone in passenger cars had been properly wearing seat
belts -- ASSUMING no other factors enter into this situation (a
totally preposterous and unscientific assumption).  In ten years, this
would come to 35000 lives saved.  How did I get the 24 million number
seen below (almost 3 orders of magnitude greater!)?  To paraphrase
that great hero of America, George Bush: READ MY WORDS!

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		David  Solan
		Post Office Box 123
		Norwalk,  CT  06856
		Voice: (203) 866-6900
		attmail: <!dsolan>

-- 
24 million Americans will die in the next 10 years without their seat belts on.  Buckle up now!
                                       {codas,u1100a}-----\
David Solan                   rutgers!rochester!kodak!pcid!gizzmo!kdavid
                                 {lazlo,ethos,fthood}-----/