jbass@polyslo.UUCP (John L Bass) (02/11/88)
>From: campbell@maynard.BSW.COM (Larry Campbell) >I watched the previous round of drivel on this topic silently. This time, >I can't stand it. There are two MAJOR misconceptions here: > > 1) "The PC industry" is *NOT* synonymous with "the computer industry". I did not equate them, although I believe they are much more closely linked than you seem believe. My first posting talked mainly about the direct effect on JOBS and PROFITS in the PC industry and how that will effect many readers on this network. Because the PC market is very high volume, a market crash will have a major effect on Jobs in the retail sector (computer stores), PC computer manufacturers, and suppliers for PC manufacturers of ALL types -- IE chips, drives, software, power supplies, monitors, keyboards, diskettes, etc. > 2) You completely ignore upgrades. Example: every company big enough > to need a mainframe probably had one by 1965. Did the mainframe > business die in 1965? Hardly. It's still probably, what, a > $50 billion a year industry, and going strong (despite all the > smug predictions of extinction by the PC geeks five or six > years ago). The upgrade market is a completely different case. I made no references to it ... this is your private soap box. The "upgrade" market for motherboards, drives, memory, add-in boards is mainly third party after market stuff ... a relatively small, but significant market. If per chance you equate "upgrades" with "replacement purchases" my second posting specificly addresses that issue. > >People will continue to buy PCs because the old ones get obsolete. This >continues to be forced by two functions: > > 1) The manufacturers will cease to support them. No sane businessperson > will build their business on hardware that can't be repaired, quickly > and relatively cheaply. > > 2) Software marches on, and the old hardware is too small and slow to > run the new software. Try running OS/2, or Windows, or Microport > System V with DOS Merge, on an 8088-based machine. NO ONE disagrees with your point ... this is your private soap box. MORE IMPORTANTLY, In my second posting I attempted to quantify the effect the replacement market has on the industry in terms of anticipated volumes and timing. In the long term the replacement market will become the entire market for PC manufacturers. >Now, it's true that we probably have seen the end of the boom years of the PC >industry, and it's a good thing, too. The dizzying growth and pell-mell >embracing of PC technology has permitted far too many shabby products and >shady companies to succeed in the short term. When the market slows down, >the marginal players should, and will, fail, leaving only the quality outfits. Bravo, Bravo .... THAT IS EXACTLY MY POINT!!!!!!! Both of my postings are simply an attempt to educate people BEFORE hand that this is likely to occur SOON ... and let them know WHY .... so they can choose their next job more carefully. Had you made that statement several weeks ago BOTH of my postings would have simply been defending your above point. Where are your projections of the market sizes and volumes????? So ... what are the misconceptions and drivel???? What WAS the purpose of your posting???? John Bass DMS Design