AIList-REQUEST@SRI-AI.ARPA (AIList Moderator Kenneth Laws) (11/08/85)
AIList Digest Friday, 8 Nov 1985 Volume 3 : Issue 166 Today's Topics: Queries - Xerox 1186 Comments, Logic & Probability - Abductive Inference, Linguistics - New Reports (CSLI), Literature - AI at Past Conferences, Opinion - AI Hype, Humor - New Mailing List for AI Hype ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Thu 7 Nov 85 09:42:55-PST From: Ted Markowitz <G.TJM@SU-SCORE.ARPA> Subject: Comments on the Xerox 1186... With the idea of setting up an in-house AI lab for informal testing of expert systems, teaching, etc., I've been looking at some of the specialized AI hardware available. I've read the discussions so far on the various machines available, but would like some more opinions on the new Xerox 1186 class processor. Needless to say price is something of a factor in my choice and this machine seems the cheapest with most of the functionality that I seek. Any thoughts? Pros and cons? Please post answers to the list for redistribution. Thanks muchly. --ted ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 7 Nov 85 16:01 EST From: Mukhop <mukhop%gmr.csnet@CSNET-RELAY.ARPA> Subject: Abductive Inference > From: "Sidney Markowitz" <SIDNEY%MIT-OZ@MIT-MC.ARPA> >> Date: 26 Jan 1983 0128-PST >> From: ISAACSON at USC-ISI >> Abductive inference can be stated as follows: >> The surprising fact, C, is observed; >> But if A were true, C would be a matter of course; >> Hence, there is reason to SUSPECT that A is true. Assume the following: Of the subjects with mono(nucleosis), 100% show a positive result for the mono test. Of the subjects without mono, only 1% show a positive result. Given that the test result for a subject (of unknown condition) is positive, what is the likelihood of the subject having mono. Of the total population, one out of every 10000 people is assumed to have mono. "The surprising fact, C, is observed;" C is the fact that the subject tested positive. The fact is surprising because the probability is just over 1%. "But if A were true, C would be a matter of course;" A is the premise that the subject has mono (A => C). "Hence, there is reason to SUSPECT that A is true." Therefore, there is reason to suspect that the subject has mono. The result appears to be reasonable. However, the probability of ~A given C is .991, indicating: If the result of the test is positive, then the subject probably does not have mono. More appropriately: Despite the fact that the test is positive, the subject probably does not have mono. I realize that the point made by Isaacson is the generative nature of abductive inference (used to generate plausible hypotheses for testing). This counter-example is in the same vein as some recent contributions to this list regarding modus ponens and the presidential triangle. Uttam Mukhopadhyay Comp. Sci. Dept. GM Research Labs Warren, MI 48090-9055 Phone: (313)575-2105 ------------------------------ Date: Thu 7 Nov 85 16:41:45-PST From: Emma Pease <Emma@SU-CSLI.ARPA> Subject: New Linguistics Reports (CSLI) [Excerpted from the CSLI Newsletter by Laws@SRI-AI.] NEW CSLI REPORTS Report No. CSLI-85-37, ``On the Coherence and Structure of Discourse'' by Jerry R. Hobbs, and Report No. CSLI-85-38, ``The Coherence of Incoherent Discourse'' by Jerry R. Hobbs and Michael Agar, have just been published. These reports may be obtained by writing to David Brown, CSLI, Ventura Hall, Stanford, CA 94305 or Brown@SU-CSLI. ------------------------------ Date: 2 Nov 1985 18:46-CST From: leff%smu.csnet@CSNET-RELAY.ARPA Subject: AI at Past Conferences Eighth International Conference on Software Engineering Augst 28-30 1985 Imperial College, London On executable models for rule-based prototyping S. Lee USA Session 8A Knowledge Based Apporoaches Automating tuning of multi-task program for real time embeded system T. Shimizu K. Sakamura Prompter: A Knowledge based support tool for code understanding K. Fukunaga, Japan The Analyst - A Workstation for Design and Analysis M. Stephens, K. Whitehead Session 9 Discussion Software engineering- The role of logic and AI in the software enterprise ------------------------------ Date: 08 Nov 85 17:24:32 +1100 (Fri) From: munnari!mungunni.oz!lee@seismo.CSS.GOV Subject: Re: Mail Order "AI"! This reminds me of an episode of Minder (BBC TV series), in which Arthur (a con man) set up a racing tips business, on an "only pay if you win" basis. They tipped all horses in each race, so some of the clients won and paid up. A guaranteed income! I wonder if the "AI" program for predicting the stock market uses this heuristic. lee [Another possibility is that many subscribers may stay in for one or two rounds before becoming convinced that they've been had. On the other hand, the JS&A offer could be based on a legitimate formula (not a breakthrough, I assume, but "chartists" have been known to do quite with their formulas) that has recently donned AI garb. I have some of my savings in a "timing service" that uses a similar approach. -- KIL] ------------------------------ Date: Fri 8 Nov 85 10:48:37-CST From: CMP.MGREEN@R20.UTEXAS.EDU Subject: ai hype You ain't heard nothin' yet. PCWeek, "The national newspaper of IBM standard microcomputing", ran a four part review during October of a fourthcoming book by Mickey Williamson titled "Artificial Intelligence for Microcomputers: A Business Design". Although the book appears to give a generally well balanced view of the current capabilities of AI it occasionally misses the mark. From the start it is apparent that the author knows very little about the subject and was forced to rely on facts and opinions supplied by others without being able to provide some kind of sanity check. Case in point: He quotes Barbra Wallace of KDS corporation who "worked on a molecular memory project in the 1950s" as predicting that within 10 years we will see a microcomputer with capabilities comparable to 2001's HAL, "but she stops short of predicting what it will cost". I guess it's time to offer Stanley Kubric a position with our group, if he did it once maybe he can do it again. Cheers -- Mike Green ------------------------------ Date: Thu 7 Nov 85 16:14:27-CST From: CMP.BARC@R20.UTEXAS.EDU Subject: New Mailing List for AI Hype Due to the volume of extraordinary AI claims, we have established a new mailing list for promoting and isolating AI hype. This list is designed for persons who wish to lie, exaggerate or otherwise misinform regarding the potential and/or accomplishments of AI. Inflated discussions about AI features, enhancements, performance, support, and other topics of interest to venture capitalists are welcome. Discussions about bugs, development problems, anything approaching realism or legitimacy, or about AI hype itself are specifically discouraged, as they are more appropriate for AIList or other mailing lists. These restrictions will have to be left as a matter of "honor among thieves", since the list will NOT be moderated, but will act as a mail "reflector" - ie., any message sent to the list will be rebroadcast to everyone on the list. The list will be maintained at Smart Expertelligeneric Logical Infer- enceware and Teknowledgecraft Inc., using a proposed neural emulation network of 3,140,000 parallel Lisp machines (Our current configuration is an Explorer prototype and a Commodore 64, running CP/M.). SELIT is connected to the ARPAnet (both military and educational) and uucp, and has gateways to CSNET, BITNET and Compuserve. Thus, it should be pos- sible to access every business, school or home in the U.S. and many in Europe. Therefore we hope to be able to reach every gullible element of the computing community. Of course, we intend to charge an exorbitant fee for inclusion in the mailing list, until our subscribers figure out that the list has nothing to offer beyond the current, conventional lists and bulletin boards. To add your name to the list, change or delete a name or have other administrative requests serviced, send mail to: ARPAnet: AIHype-REQUEST@SELIT.ARPA uucp: ...ihnp3.14!selit!aihype-request To post a submission to the list, send mail to: ARPAnet: AIHype@SELIT.ARPA uucp: ...ihnp3.14!selit!aihype Please, do NOT bother the entire list with a request to have your name added or deleted! The general discussion should be bothersome enough. Feel free to rebroadcast this announcement to anyone who might be interested. Dallas Webster ------------------------------ End of AIList Digest ********************