[mod.ai] Expert System Validation and Verification

GARVEY@SRI-AI.ARPA (Tom Garvey) (06/21/86)

	I think the notion of V&V for expert systems highlights a number
of points about the field.  First, in the words of David Mizell
(formerly of ONR), "AI is being overbought."  People that should know
better are taking an attitude that there are sufficient useful AI
systems out there that we should be concerned with formal notions of
their capabilities.  In point of fact, AI is very much a research topic
(I almost said science), and for most problems we are struggling to find
any solution at all, much less one that will be operationally useful and
verifiable.
	The traditional rationale for attempting an "AI" solution to a
problem is that we don't know how to solve the problem directly (if we
did, why screw around), or that our problems come from a large class of
ill-specified problems where flexibility in the problem-solving approach
is of paramount importance (otherwise, ...).  AI approaches typically
involve non-deterministic processes such as context-sensitive search
(frequently in large, ill-structured knowledge-bases), and their
performance is therefore extremely difficult to describe much less
quantify.  (We don't do a very good job of V&V on deterministic systems
yet.)
	Even statistical validation (i.e., try a million random test
cases and measure resulting performance) will be questionable, as
characterizing an appropriate set of test cases spanning the range of
possible or likely inputs will be extremely difficult.
	At this point, I view most expert system development as not much
more than programming in a new language. The language offers ease of
specification and representation of certain types of information (oops,
knowledge), but does not lend itself well to either V&V, maintenance, or
robust operation.  To the extent that we use expert system developments
to help understand and structure problems, these shortcomings are not
too significant; to the extent that we view the systems as the
solutions themselves, the shortcomings are significant.
	All this doesn't help your quest much, but perhaps it will help
lower your expectations.

Cheers,
Tom