richardt@orstcs.UUCP (richardt) (07/31/85)
A few other people hasve suggested why we haven't been contacted by an alien
race (benign, aggressive, or indifferent), so here are my 2 guilders.
For the purpose of discussion, I'll ignore the possibility that we've been
visited and just don't know it. Although this is likely, it's also dreadfully
boring. Therefore, let's consider the evidence that alien intelligence exists.
1) there are only three logical numbers: 0, 1, and infinity.
As a general rule, there are no 5 legged dolphins. There may evolve one,
whereupon he will either die out or propagate his breed. It is very unlikely
that his mutation will reach a steady number and coexist with normal dolphins.
Applying this to intelligence: We exist, and consider ourselves intelligent.
Therefore, either we are the ONLY intelligent race in the galaxy, or there
are an infinite number of them in an apparently infinite number of galaxies
in an apparently infinite universe. The suggestion that we are unique as
an intelligent race doesn't hold water, as intelligence seems to be highly
subjective. Apes are intelligent, but they seem very stupid, don't talk,
and don't run around wearing three-piece suits
(maybe they aren't so stupid... :-)). Dolphins seem to have a very
high intelligence and may be the one other race on the planet which we
might be willing to admit are self-aware.
2) purely statistical methods. There are x G-type stars visible from Earth in
y area. Extrapolating the number af stars in the galaxy based on obsrvation
and galactic model, there should be *at least* z Earth-like planets in this
galaxy. From there, things get shaky. IF life appears wherever possible,
there should be at least (z- an arbitrary #) of intelligent races in the
galaxy. No bets or suggestions have been made about whether they would
be spacefaring. They may exist but not be outside their own solar systems.
By that line of logic, in about 500 years, the neighborhood wil be getting
plum crowded!
The catch is, statistical method only states that within an arbitrarily large
area there will be n intelligent races. They might be at "the other end of
the {galaxy | spiral arm | universe | ...} for all we know. They might be
running around at sublight speed.
There is one way to find out where all these other intelligent species are
living -- go there and find them. Anybody want to come with me when my
Tardis gets out of the shop?
orstcs!richardt
"We'll be completely repaired in three days...we'll be done in three weeks..."