ARMS-D-Request@XX.LCS.MIT.EDU (Moderator) (11/25/86)
Arms-Discussion Digest Monday, November 24, 1986 11:37PM Volume 7, Issue 70 Today's Topics: Qualitative Arms Control and the ABM Treaty: Part II (18 Kchars) papers appearing in ARMS-D anti-tank weapons Re: RFP: A Star Wars Game Government SDI is research spending research money SDI "pilot plant" test Administrivia ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Mon, 24 Nov 1986 13:49 EST From: LIN@XX.LCS.MIT.EDU Subject: Qualitative Arms Control and the ABM Treaty: Part II (18 Kchars) Enclosed is Part II of a draft of a paper called "Qualitative Arms Control and the ABM Treaty". As a draft, please do not cite or quote it in any other forum. Comments are solicited, and will be most useful by 12/15. Qualitative Arms Control and the ABM Treaty: Part II Copyright (c) Herbert Lin, November 1986 All Rights Reserved 3 A First Example: General Principles of The ABM Treaty The ABM Treaty of 1972 is an agreement in which each party agrees to forego the defense of its territory against strategic ballistic missiles. To support this goal, the Treaty limits ABM systems in quantity (e.g., 100 interceptors), in basing mode (only fixed, land-based systems), and to certain agreed deployment areas (one site plus test ranges), and imposes limits on the development, testing, and deployment of ABM technology. For example, Article VI(a) forbids each side from testing non-ABM missiles, launchers, and radars "in an ABM mode". The meaning of the phrase "test in an ABM mode" was clarified in an Agreed Statement in 1978, which defined such a test as one involving "objects whose flight trajectory is comparable to that of a strategic ballistic missile or its elements while the object is involved in testing."[8] However, since neither the ABM Treaty nor the the SALT I Interim Agreement on Strategic Offensive Weapons that accompanied the ABM Treaty defined a "strategic ballistic missile" by reference to a set of performance criteria, some ambiguity remains over what constitutes a "test in an ABM mode". For example, the Soviet SA-X-12 interceptor missile has been tested against "tactical" ballistic missiles.[9] However, extrapolations from these tests have led to allegations that the SA-X-12 also has some capability to intercept longer-range theater ballistic missiles such as the Pershing II or strategic missiles such as the Poseidon or Minuteman II; indeed, the current Administration comes close to suggesting that the SA-X-12 violates the ABM Treaty.[10] If the two sides wish to resolve such ambiguities, they could agree on a set of parameters that would define more precisely a "test in an ABM mode". Specifically, a "test in an ABM mode" involves the test of a weapon or a sensor that involves a target which resembles a strategic ballistic missile or its elements in flight trajectory; the speed and altitude of the target are two parameters that can reasonably characterize a test in an ABM mode.[11] Figure 1 illustrates that a threshold of 3 km/sec in speed can distinguish reasonably well between strategic ballistic missiles and tactical ballistic missiles at high altitude; satellites present a difficulty that will be addressed shortly. However, at low altitudes, these distinctions are much less clear. Thus, it is only above a certain altitude threshold (60 km is illustrated in Figure 1) that activities could reasonably be restricted. Consequently, a test in an ABM mode could be defined as one involving a target with a speed or altitude above these values at any point in their trajectory.[12] Such an agreement would forbid certain tests of weapons against satellites. This would be a logical complement to a ban on high-altitude testing in an ABM mode. The primary difference between satellite and missile targets is that the trajectory of a satellite is known with high precision long in advance of the intercept due to its great regularity, whereas the trajectory of a ballistic missile becomes known only minutes before intercept. Thus, if an ASAT weapon is given trajectory data on its target only minutes before intercept, the ASAT could be operated in an environment that would strongly resemble a system tested in an ABM mode against a re-entry vehicle in mid-course. On the other hand, the American ASAT program has been justified on the military grounds that it would protect U.S. carrier battle groups from Soviet space surveillance and deter the Soviets attacking valuable U.S. satellites. The U.S. might decide that it would prefer to be able to threaten Soviet satellites than to reduce the threat to U.S. satellites and additionally to strengthen the ban on ABM defenses. In this case, it would not agree to an ASAT ban, and each side would simply accept the ambiguity caused by ASAT weapons pressing on ABM Treaty limits. If the two sides wished to possess a minimal ASAT capability, they could agree on a "grandfather" clause that allowed each side to continue testing and developing their existing ASAT systems despite the provisions of any new definition of "testing in an ABM mode". In addition, the threshold values proposed above could be modified to permit certain types of ABM technology. For example, if the two sides wished strongly to continue work on low endo-atmospheric terminal defense and boost-phase intercepts, they might modify the proposed definition so that any test regardless of speed but below a certain altitude was not considered a "test in an ABM mode". The dashed boundary in Figure 2 illustrates this modification graphically. The verifiability of such an agreement is facilitated when the parameters involved are physical quantities that can be directly observed, rather than quantities whose values must be inferred from observations. The parameters proposed in this instance -- the speed and altitude of a target as functions of time -- are physical quantities that are directly observable. By contrast, the yield of an underground nuclear explosion is not directly measurable; rather, estimates of yield are based on seismic measurements that must be calibrated using certain procedures whose accuracy is subject to endless debate and argument. Even harder to assess with confidence would be weapon capabilities based on intangibles such as computer software. For example, the same interceptor missile might or might not be ABM-capable depending on the particular computer software controlling its flight path. However, software cannot be inspected by national technical means, and even on-site inspection of software could not eliminate the possibility that different software could replace the inspected software. In addition, it must be possible to measure the parameters with an accuracy sufficient to distinguish between the performance that characterizes the forbidden military capability from allowed capabilities. In this case, the speed and altitude of a target can be measured with high accuracy. Thus, if national technical means (NTM) could track the speed of a target within 10% of its true value, and the Soviets conducted a test in which a target's speed were measured at 2.9 km/sec, there would be no significant technical consequence if the speed of the target were in fact 3.2 km/sec, even though such a speed would technically exceed the agreed limits. However, if national technical means were capable of tracking the speed of a target only within a factor of two of its true value, the approach proposed would not be viable, since tests conducted at target speeds of 5.8 km/sec would have significant technical consequences. As importantly, the 3.0 km/sec threshold is low enough that a missile tested only to this threshold could not be assumed with confidence to be capable of performing intercepts against targets traveling at 5 km/sec. The parties could also agree that activity near the threshold could constitute prima facie cause for concern but not necessarily evidence for violation, and that an explanation of the activity provoking concern could be required without resort to specific charges about violation. Such an approach would help to reduce disputes about the significance of a borderline activity. 4 A Second Example: ABM Treaty Specifics The previous section described an approach to the strengthening of the ABM Treaty based on a comprehensive approach that would cut across weapon technologies. An alternative approach could focus on a specific weapon technology and individualized parameters relevant to that technology. For example, interceptor missiles and lasers are two weapons that are currently under consideration for ABM applications. 4.1 Interceptor Missiles The capability of an interceptor missile is indicated by its kinematic profile: its altitude, range, speed and acceleration. Interceptors with limited speed, acceleration, altitude and speed are not ABM-capable, and a set of threshold values could be defined to define the kinematic profile of an ABM interceptor. Publicly available information suggests that the Soviet SA-X-12 missile has a very marginal capability to intercept strategic ballistic missiles; an educated guess about the profile of the SA-X-12 would be that it has a range of about 100 km, an altitude of about 30 km, a speed of about Mach 4, and an acceleration of about 50 g's. An ABM-capable interceptor could be defined as one that exceeded one or more of these values. It is possible that current national technical means are not adequate to verify that all tests of interceptor missiles fell within these limits. However, a cooperative verification regime could increase the data available beyond that which can be collected by national technical means operating alone. For example, the two sides might agree to equip all test missiles with a radio beacon. The data from two listening stations tracking the missile through the beacon would yield the complete kinematic profile of the missile. Under such an arrangement, the verification problem would be reduced to one of detecting all missile launches, rather than the far more difficult one of monitoring the entire flight of all missile launches. Finally, it might be possible to circumvent limits on interceptor performance. For example, the trajectory of a re-entry vehicle in principle completely predictable from the moment that the RV separates from its delivery vehicle. A very slow interceptor launched a few moments after RV separation could be aimed to collide with the RV many minutes after separation. However, it would be very difficult to develop the technology that would be needed to give a slow interceptor the ability to intercept the fast-moving RV, or even to predict the exact trajectory of the RV so that such an intercept could be performed; indeed, such capabilities might never be achieved. Thus, while it is theoretically possible to circumvent limits on interceptor performance in this manner, such limits provide at the very least a grace period in which both sides may proceed with fewer concerns. 4.2 Space-Based Lasers A second example involves space-based lasers and mirrors that direct laser beams to their target. One plausible parameter for laser technology is the brightness of the laser (given essentially by the power of the laser times its mirror area divided by its operating wavelength squared). A threshold of 10**19 watts/steradian in brightness corresponds roughly to the power and brightness of the Alpha laser/LODE mirror currently being developed under the auspices of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. This limit would prevent the development of laser weapons in low-earth orbit (LEO) capable of destroying either significant numbers of ballistic missiles or satellites in geo-synchronous orbit.[13] The power of a space-based laser could be monitored to a certain extent by measuring the heat it radiates. An output power of 20 MW would require significantly more input power, the generation of which would be detectable by monitoring waste heat produced with a set of infra-red detectors observing the structure from different positions. Other parameters could be determined by direct measurement or observation. '5 Quantitative Limits Though directed primarily towards qualitative limitations on weapons performance, the approach described above can be extended to a certain extent into the quantitative domain. In particular, the primary parameter relevant to quantitative arms control is simply the number of units required to perform a particular military mission. For example, while ABM-capable technology by assumption demands high levels of performance, an ABM system to defend the territory of a large nation requires highly capable technology in large quantities. Mission-based quantitative restraints are possible if it is possible to determine the number of units necessary for the military mission to be forbidden, and if the forbidden military mission requires a larger number of units than would be required for other allowed military missions. The limit of one hundred ABM interceptors provided by the ABM Treaty is an example of a mission-based limit. One hundred interceptors are far from sufficient to perform territorial defense, but are sufficient for other military missions such as the defense of single highly valued target (e.g., a national capitol or a missile field) against a small attack. Quantitative limits may be desirable by themselves, or they may be used in conjunction with qualitative limits. For example, in the event that it is impossible for the U.S. and the Soviet Union to agree on reasonable performance restrictions for new ABM technology, it may still be possible to agree on a scale of deployment that would still maintain an effective ban on territorial defenses. 6 Conclusion The drafters of the original ABM treaty anticipated that ABM technology would evolve, and they established a body called the Standing Consultative Commission to "promote the objectives and implementation of the provisions of the [ABM] Treaty". Such a body would be the logical forum in which to take up the question of how to interpret the intent of 1972 in a technological and strategic world a decade or two later. However, the sine qua non of arms control is the political will to reach agreement. In the absence of political will, progress in new technologies can indeed erode the basis underlying any arms control agreement. As one example, the current timeline for SDI experiments suggests that technological progress may be used purposefully to destroy the ABM Treaty; the Treaty will not endure if either side is committed to actions that fundamentally contravene its original purpose. In the strategic competition, it is generally held that the comparative advantage of the U.S. over the Soviet Union is the technological strength of the former, while the comparative advantage of the Soviet Union is its ability to exceed (in some cases by far) U.S. weapon production rates. Thus, if the U.S. decides to forego qualitative arms control (for example, by allowing refusing to update the ABM Treaty to take into account new technologies), it must face the prospect that the unilateral military advantages it would have in the short term might well be illusory in the face of long Soviet production runs of comparable and offsetting weapon technologies that would in the long term leave the U.S. more insecure. Notes 1. The same restrictions apply to development and testing of ABM system components, according to the "restrictive" interpretation of the Treaty, adopted by the Nixon, Ford, Carter, and early Reagan Administrations. The "so-called" broad interpretation, promulgated in October 1985 by the current Administration, suggests that only the deployment of these components is prohibited. The restrictive interpretation governs this analysis. 2. See for example, Bruce Berkowitz, "Coming Constraints in Arms Control Agreements -- Approaching the Limits of Feasible Regulation", in Science, Technology, and Human Values, Winter 1986, page 24; and Christoph Bertram, "Arms Control and Technological Change: Elements of a New Approach", Adelphi Paper #146, __ 1979, pages 2-6. 3. Unless otherwise specified, an "observable" activity is one that can be observed either unilaterally or cooperatively. 4. The terms "capability" and "mission" are used in different senses in this paper. "Capability" refers individual weapons and targets: an interceptor missile has the "capability" to destroy a re-entry vehicle traveling at 6 km/sec. By contrast, "mission" refers to the aggregate assignment of these weapons used to achieve a specific objective: a network of 10,000 interceptor missiles can perform the "mission" of defending the entire territory of the continental U.S. 5. Since then, U.S. weapons with yields larger than the 150 KT threshold have been planned and even deployed, though no U.S. weapons have been deliberately tested above the threshold. This has been possible because it is a relatively simple matter to increase the yield of a thermonuclear weapon by adding more explosive material to the basic weapon. 6. I am grateful to Matthew Bunn for this example. 7. I am grateful to Peter Sharfman for this point. 8. SDIO Report to Congress, 1986, page C-7. 9. Thomas Longstreth, John Pike, and John B. Rhinelander, The Impact of U.S. and Soviet Ballistic Missile Defense Programs on the ABM Treaty, National Campaign to Save the ABM Treaty, March 1985, page 55. 10. Soviet Non-Compliance, U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, February 1, 1986, page 4. 11. The negotiating history of the ABM Treaty suggests that the U.S. attempted to specify an altitude threshold above which any test conducted would be a test in an ABM mode, but was unsuccessful in obtaining Soviet agreement to this provision. 12. A somewhat weaker condition would be to consider the speed and altitude of the target at the moment of intercept. This is an example of an important implementation detail that would have to be worked out between the U.S. and Soviet Union. 13. Carter estimates that 160 lasers in 1,000 km orbit with a brightness of 2 x 10**20 watts/steradian would be required to destroy 1400 simultaneously launched boosters hardened to 10 kilojoules/square centimeter. See OTA Directed Energy Missile Defense in Space, page 20. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 24 Nov 1986 13:52 EST From: LIN@XX.LCS.MIT.EDU Subject: papers appearing in ARMS-D An administrative note: by now, it should be obvious that as moderator I believe that ARMS-D can serve a useful role in distributing for comment the e-mail equivalent of pre-prints for commentary and discussion. I have put into the digest all papers that have been submitted, and I want to encourage the readership to submit for comment anything that they have written. ------------------------------ Subject: anti-tank weapons Date: Mon, 24 Nov 86 14:25:22 EST From: Wes Miller <wesm@mitre-bedford.ARPA> The following is from the September 1986 issue of 'Proceedings' magazine, page 112, entitled 'BANG-LESS TANK KILLER', and is copied in part without permission. The atricle is by Roland K. Mar. ..."In 1975, at the urging of Professor Stuart Hoenig of the University of Arizona, the Army's Fuels and Lubricants Research Laboratory conducted a series of tests on 'engine interferants' - substances that, when ingested into an operating internal combustion engine, would cause it to fail. Professor Hoenig beleived that there is more than one way to kill a tank. As armor-piercing rounds become less and less capable of penetrating tank frontal armor - at least for man-portable weapons - other means must be found. If the traditional hard kill is impossible for the individual infantry- man, the next best thing is a 'mobility kill.' Professor Hoenig's research focused on substances that could degrade the performance of tank engine lubricants or damage the engine directly. Using data developed by Hoenig and the Army Fuels and Lubricants Laboratory staff, the laboratory ran a series of tests on both types of substances. Results indicated that lubricant interferants were not feasable, but that several combustion interferants were highly effective. Foremost of these were common acetylene (C2H2) and butane. Butane was found to be too difficult to handle and easy to counter. However, acetylene can be easily and cheaply procured and handled as the compound calcium carbide, which is available in any hardware store. Exposing a running diesel engine to an ambient air concentration of about 3% acetylene causes engine preignition so severe that the engine has to be shut off in one or two seconds to avoid self-destruction. Concentrations only slightly higher have the same effect on standard gasoline-powered internal combustion engines. These tests were conducted with normal engine air filtration systems in place. Despite the positive results of the tests and the laboratory's favorable endorsement of Hoenig's concepts, the Army Material Command declined to follow up on the tests. After all, an engine mobility kill would stop a tank, armored personnel carrier, or truck, disable all sensors, and remove the power needed to operate the weapons systems, but it would not make a satisfying bang. And, the idea came from an outsider. Although the Army gave up on the concept, Hoenig did not. In a further test at the University of Arizona, a diesel engine was totally destroyed internally in less than three seconds upon exposure to the gas. Hoenig continued with a design for a binary warhead containing one pound of commercially available calcium carbide and 0.28 pounds of a water gel compound. Upon impact, the two substances mixed and stuck to the target, while sufficient gas was produced to contaminate a sphere 7.07 feet in diameter with enough gas to damage any internal combustion engine (greater than 16% by volume). Chemical warfare-protected vehicles can filter driving compartment air and protect the crews through positive pressure measures, but the engines must draw on ambient air, which cannot be filtered finely enough to block out acetylene molecules." The article goes on to dicuss replacing the warheads on obsolete LAWs to fit this purpose, and an example of how an amphibious assault can be stopped (as an example) by several of these charges exploded under water below the ships and landing craft. Any dicussion? Wes Miller ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 24 Nov 86 15:26:37 PST From: toma@Sun.COM (Tom Athanasiou) Subject: Re: RFP: A Star Wars Game >It seems to me that someone could (should!) write the "Star Wars >Game," making the player just such a video Defender of the >American Homeland. The view could be from a network of orbital >sensors (under constant Soviet attack, of course), and the players >would have to watch moving targets (hundreds during boost phase, >more after MIRV separation) and discriminate warheads from decoys. I think it would be a lot easier, and more realistic, to just hack up a program that looped until either: 1) You used it offensively, e.g. as an ASAT 2) It thought there was an attack. Then, once things got going, it could get a random number somewhere. It it was even, it'd do nothing. If odd, it'd crash. The program wouldn't take long to write, and it'd be pretty portable. The crash() routine could be arbitrarily flashy. ------------------------------ Date: Monday, 24 November 1986 18:06-EST From: cfccs at HAWAII-EMH To: ARMS-D Re: Government Let us remember...'government' does not default to federal government. There are many levels of government from federal to city. I know this is obvious, but some people seem to have forgotton it when composing their messages. Each level has certain responsibilities. Some extremists believe the federal government is responsible for everything from education and feeding the hungry to defense of the nation and international negotiations. My definition of federal government responsibilities is "those whhich cannot be accomplished more effectively at a lower level". Again, this is very simple. That is on purpose. Governmental responsibility should be passed. That is the only way to maintain a people's government. The nextt time the 'federal' government is blamed for cutting funds or support to a program, ask yourself why one of the lower levels of government haven't picked it up and why they didn't have it all along? G. CFCCS @ HAWAII-EMH ------------------------------ Date: Monday, 24 November 1986 18:22-EST From: cfccs at HAWAII-EMH To: LIN, arms-d Re: SDI is research I do not know the numbers involved in federal research projects, so I cannot judge what you are asking. I do know that if money were not being spent on SDI, it would not necessarily providde money for any other projects. It wasn't taken out of other needed project budgets to begin with. If the money is wasted on non-productive 'fluff' as someone once called it, I am all for rectifying the situation. I am not in favor of cutting a project's funding before it has been proven or disproven. the arguements presented so far simply say that if SDI proceeds in a certain manner, certain faults are probable. That sounds like a theory and I hope no one uses theory as fact. My crystal ball is in the repair shop this week. As for priority, the elected representatives of the people are the ones you have to convince of that. It is the people's money that is being spent, and they generally trust their representatives to allocate it properly. If you are in the minority, you still have the right to be heard, but to get anything changed you will have to convince the majority of your views. Our Senate and House do have experts in every field advising them of the situation. The information is available. The president too has experts and knows what is going on. The difference between them and us is that when they make a mistake in judgement, they have to stand up under it to the whole nation. When one of us makes a mistake in our opinions of SDI, LOW, etc., we just change our opinion and try to get rid of the red face. Hindsight is always 20/20. CFCCS @ HAWAII-EMH ------------------------------ Date: Monday, 24 November 1986 19:22-EST From: cfccs at HAWAII-EMH To: ARMS-D Re: spending research money To: Lin would you be more supportive of putting money into a research project that had no chance of seeing the light of day (fulfilling its goal)? That is why we don't develop ABM. As the president said, it would effectively kill any chance SDI has of success. CFCCS @ HAWAII-EMH ------------------------------ From: hplabs!pyramid!utzoo!henry@ucbvax.Berkeley.EDU Date: Mon, 24 Nov 86 16:56:15 pst Subject: SDI "pilot plant" test A thought came the other day. Any sensible engineer knows that it's unwise to go direct from a laboratory demo to construction of a full-scale plant; one first builds a pilot plant, big enough to simulate full-scale operating conditions accurately, yet small enough to make changes cheaply. Paul Nitze's criteria for a successful SDI -- survivability and cost- effectiveness at the margin -- are well-known, and with minor reservations I agree with them. I would suggest a third criterion should be satisfied before any attempt at operational deployment: a successful "pilot plant" test. Specifically, I would suggest that no SDI deployment should take place until SDI has shown clearly that it can defend Kwajalein Island *completely* against heavy attack. The reason for using Kwajalein is simple: it's at the receiving end of the Pacific Missile Range, and is already used as the target area for ICBM tests, so a simulated attack there can use *real* *missiles*. (Obviously it can't use real nuclear warheads, so the reentry vehicles will have to carry instruments and ballast instead.) The attack should use several missiles, multiple "warheads", and a full set of penetration aids. SDI should not itself be in charge of the attack; the ideal attack commanders would be the people working on getting US missiles past Soviet defences. The idea here is to get people who will seriously try to outwit the defenders. Strenuous efforts should be made to ensure that the defenders do not know exactly when the attack will be launched. If the pilot-plant nature of the operation makes it necessary to have only a few satellites rather than a full constellation, there will undoubtedly be "attack windows", outside of which the satellites are not in the right places to simulate a full constellation. If at all possible, things should be arranged so that there are multiple windows and so that they are fairly wide, to maximize the uncertainty. Consideration should be given to simulating communications jamming and other real problems. The evaluation criterion should be 100% success, nothing less. I do not believe perfection is the right criterion for a full-scale system, but we are talking about a limited pilot-plant test. Many of the problems that a full-scale defence would face will be present only in miniature. There will be no nuclear explosions in space and no major attempts to destroy the defences themselves. The problems of tracking and discrimination will be vastly simplified by the small scale. Kwajalein is essentially a point target, so there will be little uncertainty about the destination of the "warheads". In many ways this is a much easier problem than full defence of the US. IF SDI CANNOT DEFEND KWAJALEIN PERFECTLY, IT CANNOT POSSIBLY DEFEND NORTH AMERICA ADEQUATELY! Of course, successful complete defence of Kwajalein doesn't in itself imply the ability to defend North America. Scaling up from a pilot plant to a full-scale plant does have its own problems. But if the pilot plant doesn't work, the real thing won't either. A pilot-plant test for SDI would not be simple, quick, or cheap, but I think it would be a worthwhile investment if deployment starts to become a serious prospect. (Do I think it could be done successfully? Yes. Do I think SDI, as now organized and run, could do it successfully? No. Best to find out early.) Henry Spencer @ U of Toronto Zoology {allegra,ihnp4,decvax,pyramid}!utzoo!henry ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 24 Nov 1986 23:13 EST From: LIN@XX.LCS.MIT.EDU Subject: Administrivia My mailer no longer recognizes the following host B.ISI.EDU.#Internet This recipient (ISI-ARMS-D@B.ISI.EDU) is off my list until I get a notice that the problem has been fixed. ------------------------------ End of Arms-Discussion Digest *****************************