ARMS-D-Request@XX.LCS.MIT.EDU.UUCP (03/12/87)
Arms-Discussion Digest Wednesday, March 11, 1987 11:13PM Volume 7, Issue 108 Today's Topics: Administrivia barrage attack on submarines Re: Verification of Mobile Missiles SLBMs in the Great Lakes Censorship on Arms-d (complaint) Re: Verification of Mobile Missiles preventing tampering with verification devices THE ECONOMICS OF MILITARY SPENDING AND SDI slimy aliens & contras (long msg) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Sun, 8 Mar 1987 20:57 EST From: LIN@XX.LCS.MIT.EDU Subject: Administrivia The following recipient is now off the list. maarten@WHARTON-10.ARPA.#Internet: 550 User "maarten" Unknown. ------------------------------ Date: Sun, 8 Mar 1987 13:11 EST From: LIN@XX.LCS.MIT.EDU Subject: barrage attack on submarines "If the kill radius of a nuclear weapon [against a submarine] is of order 5 nautical miles...." From OTA MX Missile Basing study, page 178. No comments about yield, though 1 MT is probably about right. ------------------------------ Date: Mon, 9 Mar 87 09:15:55 PST From: ihnp4!mhuxd!wolit@ucbvax.Berkeley.EDU Subject: Re: Verification of Mobile Missiles There is a major flaw in the mobile missile verification concept proposed by Herb Lin. He acknowledges that the Soviets, e.g., might not wish to transmit the response from the interrogated missile carrier immediately to the U.S., to avoid providing useful targeting information. The U.S. request for verification, however, includes the position of the carrier in question -- the unknown quantity for the U.S. is whether this carrier has an identity box attached. The U.S. already has all the targeting information it might need. What the Soviets would be understandably reluctant to provide is confirmation of the U.S. "National Technical Means" ability to correctly identify a mobile missile carrier in the field. This is information they would wish to deny even if delayed, since the U.S. request for an identity check on the missile carrier at such-and-such a location at such-and-such a time can, in fact, be viewed as a request for confirmation that there was indeed a missile carrier at that location at that time. To a great extent, the security of mobile missiles, whether based on submarines, railroad cars (as proposed for the MX), or road-mobile launchers (as proposed for the Midgetman SICBM), depends on their being difficult to locate when dispersed. Neither side would willingly negate their efforts to camouflage these missiles by, in effect, assisting their opponent's efforts to develop means of detecting them. Other than using NTM for detecting all the manufacturing sites of mobile missiles, and then using either NTM (difficult) or on-site inspection (difficult to negotiate) to count all the output of those sites, there appears no way to verify compliance with a limit on such weapons. Jan Wolitzky, AT&T Bell Labs, Murray Hill, NJ; 201 582-2998; mhuxd!wolit (Affiliation given for identification purposes only) ------------------------------ Subject: SLBMs in the Great Lakes Date: 09 Mar 87 14:11:03 EST (Mon) From: dm@bfly-vax.bbn.com Fresh water is transparent to radio-waves, so you could communicate directly with an SLBM in the Great Lakes -- no need for ELF (or GANDALF, or whatever it is they're calling the extremely-low-frequency communication system). Unfortunately, being transparent to radio waves also probably means that fresh water is transparent to radar as well -- meaning that the advantage of a submarine (concealment) is lost in the Great Lakes. ------------------------------ Subject: Censorship on Arms-d (complaint) Date: 9 Mar 87 22:45:29 EST (Mon) From: campbell@maynard.BSW.COM In article <8703081904.AA27357@ucbvax.Berkeley.EDU> you write: > >[If you want more information, contact POM directly. Application form >and fee information provided by POM deleted by moderator. Complains >about censorship will be entertained.] Consider this a complaint. AI is a non-partisan organization with no political axe to grind. It exists solely to end the use of torture and of imprisonment for purely political crimes. I can't see any reason whatsoever for censoring this message. In fact, now that I think of it, I would object even if POM had been talking about a political or partisan organization -- say the Heritage Foundation, or Physicians for Social Responsibility. What possible harm could there be in dissemination purely informational material (name, address, phone number, annual dues, etc.) about such organizations? -- Larry Campbell The Boston Software Works, Inc. Internet: campbell@maynard.uucp 120 Fulton Street, Boston MA 02109 uucp: {alliant,wjh12}!maynard!campbell +1 617 367 6846 ARPA: campbell%maynard.uucp@harvisr.harvard.edu MCI: LCAMPBELL ------------------------------ Date: Tue, 10 Mar 87 09:48:01 pst From: pyramid!utzoo!henry%hplabs@hplabs.HP.COM Subject: Re: Verification of Mobile Missiles > In all cases, the Soviets would know what data had been > transmitted. This would alleviate their apprehension that > these identity boxes could be used for non-agreed purposes. A serious problem: how do they know that the box does not contain a cartridge of nerve gas that can be triggered by remote control? Or even a miniature fission bomb? Even remote control is not actually needed, just a timer: "detonate at 0400 GMT on 4 July 1999". > Of course, the technical challenge is to design a > tamper-proof identity box that cannot be removed from the > platform surreptitously... Tricky; how do you know that box and mounting have not been cut away from the platform? Maybe with optical fibers imbedded in the platform itself during manufacturing, it could be done. This would require detailed supervision of manufacturing, though. Henry Spencer @ U of Toronto Zoology {allegra,ihnp4,decvax,pyramid}!utzoo!henry ------------------------------ From: Robert Elton Maas <REM%IMSSS@SAIL.Stanford.EDU> Subject:preventing tampering with verification devices <LIN> Date: Sat, 7 Mar 1987 20:07 EST <LIN> From: LIN@XX.LCS.MIT.EDU <LIN> Subject: Verification of Mobile Missiles <LIN> Note to the Reader: This is a working paper only; I am not <LIN> prepared to say that it is a workable scheme. Nevertheless, I <LIN> think it presents some potentially useful ideas that warrant <LIN> some attention. Comments are solicited!!! Mostly I like it and think it workable. The only problem is physical tampering. Any time you don't have pysical control over some place, you can't prevent physical tampering with equipment at that place. This includes responder-boxes mounted on Soviet missile carriers. The only reasonable solution is random spot checking. Suppose that every year we pick 5% of Soviet missiles at random to be physically inspected. (Likewise they pick 5% of ours at random.) We choose the time, within a time-window such as a two-month period. We pick 5% at random, then notify the USSR to be ready, they say "we're ready", then we issue commands to those particular responder-boxes via the Soviet communications people which they are required to forward to the actual boxes within one hour (this gives them time to decrypt all the messages to verify they are proper, and time to issue commands to their troops to stop those particular units if they were in motion or planned to move, but not time to clandestinely move the equipment very far). The commands cause the boxes to transmit full information directly to satellites. The USSR is then required to remove those units from action, letting them sit exactly where they are until USA technicians can arrive to inspect them for tampering. As soon as each unit is inspected, it can be returned to active service, immediately moved to a new location most likely. 5% surprise inspection&freezing isn't a drastic reduction in force. If we started such an inspection, then while that 5% was pinned down we launched a pre-emptive attack, the remaining 95% could surely destroy the USA. But that 5% is very effective in preventing physical tampering. Suppose for illustration that they had 1000 units, of which 10% had been tampered with. If we inspect 5%, we are inspecting 50 units, of which on the average 5 would be among those tampered with. There could be more than 5 or fewer than 5 actually, but it is very unlikely that there would be fewer than 2, so we would have ironclad evidence that tampering was occuring and could then order additional inspections to verify the amount of treaty abrogation. Alternately we might inspect one at a time, distributed throughout the year. That way we get speedier information in case of massive abrogation, but about the same information in case of 10% abrogation (it still takes a year to accumulate those average-5 tampering cases at which point we can start to loudly claim abrogation). ------------------------------ Date: Tuesday, 10 March 1987 15:52-EST From: John_Boies at ub.cc.umich.edu REPLY TO: HENRY SPENCER Subject: THE ECONOMICS OF MILITARY SPENDING AND SDI 1) HENRY SPENCER SEEMS TO WANT TO SUGGEST THAT JUST BECAUSE THE US IS CURRENTLY SPENDING HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS OF DOLLARS THE US CAN SPEND MORE HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS (EVEN SEVERAL TRILLION DOLLARS). THE POINT OF MY SUBMISSION ON THE COSTS OF SDI WAS THAT WE CAN'T AFFORD THE CURRENT HUNDREDS OF BILLIONS WE ARE CURRENTLY SPENDING AND THAT SDI COULD POTENTIALLY BE THE STRAW THAT BREAKS THE CAMELS BACK, UNLESS OR OR COURSE WE CHOOSE TO GO WITHOUT SOMETHING. WHAT I ASK KNOW IS WHAT ARE WE WILLING TO GIVE UP TO HAVE SDI? 2) IT SEEMS THAT IN ORDER TO DO A COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS ONE NEEDS TO KNOW THE COSTS OF WHAT YOU ARE ANALYZING. MOREOVER, YOU NEED TO KNOW THE EFFECTS OF SPENDING HOWEVER MUCH SOMETHING COSTS INORDER TO FIGURE OUT WHETHER YOU WANT TO DO SOMETHING OR NOT. I ARGUE THAT SDI WILL BE EXTREMELY COSTLY BOTH IN TERMS OF ABSOLUTE DOLLAR COSTS BUT ALSO IN HUMAN, SOCIAL, AND INDIRECT ECONOMIC COSTS. THIS MEANS THAT SDI HAS TO BE AWFUL DAMN GOOD TO JUSTIFY ITSELF. REMEMBER THE MX MISSILE, IT WAS GOING TO COST A LOT (BOTH DOLLAR WISE AND EVIRONMENTALLY) BUT IT WAS GOING TO REDRESS THE "WINDOW OF VULNERABILITY". SOMEHOW WE ARE AT THE TAIL END OF THE WINDOW OF VULNERABILITY AND NOTHING HAS HAPPENED--NO MX (AT LEAST NOT MANY) AND WE WILL HAVE SPENT LESS THAN 1/3 WHAT WE WERE SUPPOSED TO ON THE PROJECT, SO FAR. WHILE THE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COSTS OF SDI ARE RELATIVELY OBVIOUS, MUCH OF THE EFFECTIVENESS I HAVE HEARD OF SO FAR (AND I HAVE READ A GREAT DEAL AND WRITTEN A GREAT DEAL ABOUT IT) SOUND REMARKABLY LIKE THE HOOPLA OF THE WINDOW OF VULNERABILITY ARGUMENTS OR THE FANTASTIC THINGS THE B-1 BOMBER WAS SUPPOSED TO DO FOR US. 3) A LAST POINT ABOUT COST EFFECTIVENESS. EVEN IF 30 YEARS FROM NOW SDI IS ACTUALLY LIKELY TO SAVE OUR BUTTS FROM THOSE DASTARDLY RUSSKIES, AND WE *KNEW* THIS NOW, WOULD WE STILL WANT TO SPEND THE MONEY IF BECAUSE OF THOSE EXPENDITURES, OUR NATION WASN'T REALLY WHAT IT IS NOW? IF INSTEAD OF THE WEALTH AND HEALTH WE ENJOY NOW OUR ECONOMY WAS REDUCED TO A STAGNANT DYING BEHEMOTH DEVOTED LARGELY TO PROVIDING SERVICES TO THE WEALTHY AND SUPPORTING AN ENORMOUS MILITARY MACHINE. IF, RATHER THAN THE 20-25 PERCENT THAT ARE POOR (ALTHOUGH ONLY 15 PERCENT LIVE BELOW THE POVERTY LINE TODAY, SOMEWHAT MORE LENIENT DEFINITIONS WIDELY USED BY SOCIAL SERVICE AGENCIES PUT THE NUMBER HIGHER), WE FACED SAY 35 OR 45 OF OUR POPULATION LIVING IN POVERTY AND MOST OF REST NOT DOING TO WELL? I COULD GO ON. BUT THESE ARE THINGS TO THINK ABOUT WHEN WE ARE DOING A COST BENEFIT ANALYSIS. DO WE WANT A COMMAND ECONOMY DEVOTED TO SUPPORTING THE MILITARY JUST LIKE AS SOME PEOPLE DESCRIBE THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY. ------------------------------ Date: Wed, 11 Mar 87 07:37:57 PST From: pom%under.s1.gov@mordor.s1.gov Subject: slimy aliens & contras Subject: Two points: contras and slimy aliens pom:Today I will cover just two minor points, point 1) and point 2):: =================================================================== 1) pro and contra of contras ---------------------------- a:>In the third case, the Contra's are fighting a government that does seek to >expand itself by giving arms to rebels in El Salavador. The contras (regardless >of their human rights) will not do this. Therefore, the best way to have peace >in Central America is a Contra victory.... The bottom line is that we need to pick >between an agressive government with poor human rights that we have no >influence over or a peaceful government with poor human rights that we do >have influence over and can steer towards democracy later..... b:>Despite my Germanic name, I am mostly Irish. Irishmen love a lost cause and >any fool can tell you that Ireland is God's favorite country. As an Irishman, >however, I strongly aprove of getting drunk > Allen Sherzer > SHERZER%NGSTL1@TI-EG.CSNET @a: In all recorded history, there never was a democratic quisling government. If we really ever tried, we never succeeded. It's a contradictio ad adjecto (contradiction in adjectives?). @b:That's no real prob: In my belief system God can have more then one 'most favorite country' at the same time (I have to ask though if any can be catholic). I any case, when you visit His most favorite city of SanFrancisko, give me a call; May be we can get drunk together... 2) is 'hi-story' simply a story of 'the bad guys against bad guys'? ------------------------------------------------------------------ a:> ....2) Not everyone in the U.S. can afford to spend a year off from their > jobs checking out how tough it is in rest of the world. b:>...6) I think it is interesting that you choose a work by a Czech emigre > organization as a reference concerning the evils of those Russkies. c:>... You should read > some things about the civil rights movement in the south, the Filipino > insurrection in 1902-1908, the treatment of Indians by the U.S. >From: John_Boies@ub.cc.umich.edu @a: I know. I am not rich either. What I said is neverthless true. Go and see The American Tale - do you need five bucks for a ticket? @b: CSAS is not emigre organisation. You cannot judge this book before seeing it; I said it is unusual. I am a scientist; don't you think I know what 'scholarly' means? It is a scholarly book. @c: I read about Indians, Wounded Knee, etc. I was moved but my hair did not do the things you said they will. Thats not the point though. You cann't argue with my description of the Soviet reality by pointing out ugly things US, or ku-klux-klan did. The issue "Who is worse? " is a different issue, but would you want to argue that? Standard Disclaimer ========================= Sometime I post some fact on Soviet reality and get mail which does not argue with me but with Mr. Buckley. Some other time I say something on Central America and people write to me that I am 'naive about communism' and ask me pointedly if I know 'anything' about Soviet history. I apologize for not fitting into standard pigeon holes. I tried my best to be a 'regular guy', but looking back; well.... That's why I composed this 'standard disclaimer':: ----------------------------------------------- I proclaim that I am familiar with all three versions of the Russian and Soviet history. I did indeed noticed a steady expansion of the empire. Very little is ever returned. Only instances which come to mind are Austria and Finland. (And speaking of Finland, let's not forget that the strip of land, which Soviets retained, still has the most sought-after and plush 'Dacha's" (summer homes) for VIPs of Leningrad. So. How do I know that? I learned that from a friend whom I met in Leningrad. Only rarely is the 'telephone' from me to the direct participants much longer than second hand (which is mostly because I did not so far found a 'really good book on SU'. Naturally, she said it 'off the record', and she knew that I know that, otherwise she would not say it - so do not quote her. I am not attempting 'to prove that Russkis are devils' neither that they are angels, since I know that they are neither; they are human, just as Americans. BUT does that means that there is NO DIFFERENCE?? Well, if we are not sure, let's call the experts: Just a moment -- --here it is-- 011-76-90886-9676 (now you can dial direct) Hallo, yea. Is that Radiostation Armenia? "Da. You are on the air". "We have an argument here. Some say that if you really examine all the facts, there is little difference between the Two Systems", They are both bad! "Is that true?" "That is totally false! There is a basic and principal difference: Under the Capitalistic System, there is an exploitation of one man by another man. Under the Socialistic System such unacceptable human relationship is completely reversed!" "Thank you. click" So, you see, there are things which are very similar, and there are things which are indeed opposite. For instance, here in US, when you graduate from college, you start job-hunting. It is often complex and difficult and some fail. Overe there, in SU, when they graduate, they start complex and often difficult maneuvres to get out of the job which was assigned to them. Some succeed. Similarity between SU and US, which strikes me most, is the mentality of a BIG nation. They both have complete lack of comprehension of how it feels when a small nation gets kicked around by a powerful neighbor. It's like if man would attempt to imagine how it feels to be raped. There is a huge blind spot there; men simply are not equipped for that. So, I do not think that US is practising its suicidal foreign policy in Central America because 'Americans are either evil or stupid or naive' as many foreigners believe. Americans simply are unable to differentiate between Freedom Fighters and "Freedom Fighters". They all look same to them! The Freedom Fighters of Albania fight because they did choose to be free or to die. Noble people; They are not paid to fight. I would not mind to have one of them as a neighbor or even a friend. On the "Freedom Fighters" of Nicaragua we (so far and still counting) spent $200,OOO,OOO dollars. Thats about $5 per Nicaraguan. Imagine for how many days this amount would feed a hungry child in a poor country? Soviets sure try, but they do not really need to bother: Marxism is a fairly natural choice of a belief system for very poor people without hope.What is a better way to save a man from the clutches of Marxism ? Check one 1) Hire somebody to shoot his uncle (without trial) 2) Make it possible for him to earn enough money to feed his child If those contras would have any brains, they would take the money, split them with their relatives and invest them into Nicaraguan economy. But they don't and so when these "Freedom Fighters" fail, and that's inevitable, US has to make an extra immigration refugee quota for the and I do have a problem: I would not want to have one of them as a neigbor. Why? A poll of Nicaraguan soldiers, who were sent to Chile by Somoza, revealed that none of them owned any stock of the Anaconda Copper Company. It was not really in their interest to fight. That's one reason why Somoza is called a quisling. Since he betrayed his own people, he would not hesitate to betray me either. I do not care for Mr. Rheza Pahalavi and his friends either. They care little whom they serve and to illustrate that, I will close with one more 'political joke'. This one is not Russian but from an East Europan nation, about the size of Nicaragua: 'They' were running one of those regular purges and 'verification of the proper background for each job' and so they called Janosh, a gypsy, in front of the commission. "What is your occupation?" asked the chairman? "Eh, you!" says Janosh "Don't you know John I am playing fiddles in the pub?" (It was a small village, you see), that's all I know!. "Well,well,let's see" says John - "ahm Next question: What did you do during the Nazi occupation of our country?" "What ?! I was playing the fiddles, damn You.". And so Janosh did not pass. His activities during the previous occupation were interpreted as collaboration with enemy. " You idiot!" says his friend why didn't you said you were with the resistance. Why didn't you lie? "How could I? 'They' were all there!" I know it does not sound funny. Janosh was referring to the fact that the 'same they' who previously collaborated with Nazis often end up as 'enforcers' for the Soviet occupants. I guess one have to live that, to either cry of laugh at that. Decent people usually do not want this kinds of job and 'they' care little whom they serve. When you put 'Help wanted" ad in the papers: "Need someone with gun to sell his people to foreign interests" only scum of the Earth applies - and whether you are KGB or CIA makes little difference to them. It was so preordained by omnipotent deity that BIG american nations will relate to the BIG Russian jokes and tiny american nations can 'get' the tiny East European jokes. But that does not means that SU and US are the same. American military bases abroad are paid for by the American taxpayers. They actually boost the local economy with all those services like hot dogs and prostitution. That's one reason all foreigners know that Americans are not normal. All normal occupational armies are paid for by the occupied - and that's not a Soviet invention. Mr. Metternich, who was a cross between Machiavelli and dr. Kiessinger for the Austrian Habsburgs did that: If your village got any funny ideas, he would just station squadron of Hussars there, so that in addition to your regular chores, you had to feed and quarter the Hussars. When they left, you were in heaven. I suspect Romans did that, and if you recall those stories of dragons, demanding dozen maidens for brekfast every day, you will agree that the 'normal way' is really ancient. BUT, where are all those BIG empires and reptiles? They all gonners. There is message somewhere.. So, that ends the disclaimer. It's a bit too long - so I will post it just once and than - just mail it, when I feel missclasified. It applies to my past and (very few remaining) future postings. I hope it explains a bit why I feel the way I do, and, to end on a more cheerful and melodramatic note, I want to say, that if I would have to choose a country to live in (and if absolutely necessary to die for) it would be US. As a matter of fact I had to choose. I still cherish some childhood memories and values and so when people ask: "Hey Dr. Pom, which side are you on? Are you with 'us' or with 'them'??" I like to say: "What do you mean? 'which side?'. Earth is round, it has no 'sides'. I am a cheerleader for global concsiousness.. pom. =================================no!==no!!===not on the arpanet!!!====== ------------------------------ End of Arms-Discussion Digest *****************************