jackson@ttidcb.UUCP (Dick Jackson) (07/16/85)
Wasn't it Fermi who asked about 40 years ago "If there are advanced races out there in the stars, where are they?" meaning that at least one star faring race should have explored the whole place by now and we should have seen them. There are several theories (human uniqueness, quarantine, etc) in answer to THE QUESTION; one that I haven't heard is that the first aliens to master space are totally zenophobic and when they detect industrial civilizations arising (via radio transmission) they come and wipe them, and soon us, out. Assuming this slightly pessimistic theory is incorrect, I find it interesting to speculate not on what THEY would come for, but upon what THEY would be like if considerably advanced relative to ourselves. E.g. with "IQs" of 1000. They would talk to us, and be bored a lot of the time in doing so I guess. Probably they would plan for very long-term goals . Human's plans are generally of the order of one year (multiply or divide by ten). Gorillas and dogs don't plan more than a few seconds ahead. I'm assuming that THEY are ahead of us in roughly the same ratio as we are ahead of gorillas. Presumably they would have concerns that we could not even comprehend, and therefore cannot now speculate about! Or can we? Anyone care to try?
jagardner@watmath.UUCP (Jim Gardner) (07/19/85)
[...]
Possible answers to the question "Where are the aliens?" (most of
which have appeared in numerous SF stories):
(a) They are here. They're just clever enough to disguise themselves
or conceal themselves or avoid capture. (Certainly very reasonable;
human spies can go undetected for years, even in the most suspicious
of environments. Non-humanoids would find this more difficult, but
they could easily observe from a short distance.)
(b) Any race sufficiently advanced to have achieved inter-stellar
travel has also achieved "civilization" in the sense that they
are above interfering with the development of other species.
Therefore they let us develop in peace and stay out of our way
until we have evolved past animalistic aggression.
(c) Some race is sufficiently advanced to maintain inter-stellar
peace, at least in the local region of space. Maybe there are
a lot of nasties out there, but the local rulers believe in
non-interference and have sufficient clout to enforce the policy.
(d) Several races are actively at war in space. Either earth is in
a demilitarized zone, or it is militarily unimportant. The warfare
takes up the time and effort of participants and they don't waste
energy on planets that are no current threat.
(e) Space races are terrified of humans for some reason. Or of earth
in general (e.g. because there are numerous diseases here, because
something nasty lives here secretly, etc.).
(f) FTL travel is impossible. Inter-stellar travel requires the colony
ship approach or suspended animation. Everything is subject to
relativistic effects like time dilation. This makes exploration
much more difficult and time-consuming. It just so happens we
haven't been found yet; indeed, many races may decide that
inter-stellar colonization is economically pointless and may do
their best to live at home.
(g) Earth is the only planet where life (or technological life) ever
developed...or at least the only planet in the neighbourhood.
I've probably left out a few explanations from the list. Variations
are many; take (c), for example, inter-stellar peace-keepers who prevent
nasties from interfering. These could be benevolent beings; malevolent
beings who wipe out any race that ventures into space; a doomsday ship
that was programmed by someone to hang around Jupiter and shoot anything
that happens by; a natural or artificial barrier that makes our region
of space difficult to enter; and so on.
Okay guys, hop on the bandwagon and add to the list.
Jim Gardner, University of Waterloofranka@mmintl.UUCP (Frank Adams) (07/23/85)
In article <15835@watmath.UUCP> jagardner@watmath.UUCP (Jim Gardner) writes: >[...] > >Possible answers to the question "Where are the aliens?" (most of >which have appeared in numerous SF stories): >[...] >(f) FTL travel is impossible. Inter-stellar travel requires the colony > ship approach or suspended animation. Everything is subject to > relativistic effects like time dilation. This makes exploration > much more difficult and time-consuming. It just so happens we > haven't been found yet; indeed, many races may decide that > inter-stellar colonization is economically pointless and may do > their best to live at home. See my previous posting; I won't repeat myself here. >I've probably left out a few explanations from the list. Variations >are many; take (c), for example, inter-stellar peace-keepers who prevent >nasties from interfering. These could be benevolent beings; malevolent >beings who wipe out any race that ventures into space; a doomsday ship >that was programmed by someone to hang around Jupiter and shoot anything >that happens by; a natural or artificial barrier that makes our region >of space difficult to enter; and so on. I would regard nasties as quite different from benevolent protection, not just a variation. OK, now for some others: (h) Intelligent races at some point evolve past the need for physical existence. As a variation, they find parallel worlds (infinitely many of them) and don't need the rest of the universe. (i) Intelligent races are inevitably warlike. At some point they get sufficiently deadly weapons and kill themselves off. However, option (g) seems the most likely to me -- there aren't any other technological races, at least not in our galaxy. The next question is, why not? The following seem to me to be the main possible reasons: (1) Planets which can support life are very rare. Either planetary systems are rare, or the conditions required for life are more special than we think. (2) Life is a very unlikely phenomenon. Almost all worlds which can support life don't have any. (3) Some step in the evolution of intelligent life is very unlikely. Maybe multicellular life is unique to Earth. Maybe sexual reproduction is. (4) Technology is unique to us. Other races don't develop it. This may be because they lack appropriate manipulatory organs, or because there is something unlikely about its development. (5) All of the above. Perhaps each of the above is 10 to 100 times as unlikely as the SETI people estimate, so that the expected number of intelligent races in the galaxy is about one. (6) Perhaps our evolution was amazingly fast, and we aren't so much the only technological species as the first. (7) Collisions with astronomical objects may be quite common, and we are very lucky not to have been hit by anything really large in the last few billion years.
peter@baylor.UUCP (Peter da Silva) (07/24/85)
> (f) FTL travel is impossible. Inter-stellar travel requires the colony > ship approach or suspended animation. Everything is subject to > relativistic effects like time dilation. This makes exploration > much more difficult and time-consuming. It just so happens we > haven't been found yet; indeed, many races may decide that > inter-stellar colonization is economically pointless and may do > their best to live at home. Not a valid argument. All it takes is one race... in fact if nothing else stops us we'll have the entire galaxy colonised in a million years, even without FTL. A million years is nothing to the age of the universe. -- -- Peter da Silva (the mad Australian) -- UUCP: ...!shell!neuro1!{hyd-ptd,baylor,datafac}!peter -- ARPA: baylor.peter@RICE.ARPA -- MCI: PDASILVA; CIS: 70216,1076; DELPHI: PJDASILVA --
peter@baylor.UUCP (Peter da Silva) (07/26/85)
> (f) FTL travel is impossible. Inter-stellar travel requires the colony > ship approach or suspended animation. Everything is subject to > relativistic effects like time dilation. This makes exploration > much more difficult and time-consuming. It just so happens we > haven't been found yet; indeed, many races may decide that > inter-stellar colonization is economically pointless and may do > their best to live at home. Not a valid argument. All it takes is one race... in fact if nothing else stops us we'll have the entire galaxy colonised in a million years, even without FTL. A million years is nothing to the age of the universe. -- Peter da Silva (the mad Australian) UUCP: ...!shell!neuro1!{hyd-ptd,baylor,datafac}!peter MCI: PDASILVA; CIS: 70216,1076
milne@uci-icse (07/27/85)
From: Alastair Milne <milne@uci-icse>
I'm surprised nobody has mentioned what seems to me the most obvious
reason: distances in space are !!!ENORMOUS!!!, far beyond human capacity to
perceive. Remember the definition of "infinite" given in the Hitchhikers'
Guide to the Galaxy? "Big, multiplied by colossal, multiplied by
staggeringly huge ...". An understatement, certainly, but aiming in the
right direction. Isn't it more than likely that, in all that unthinkable
volume, our little planet just hasn't been noticed? Consider:
- All our radio and TV signals (and whatever other kinds we've been
generating) can't be more than 50 or 60 light-years out by now.
Furthermore, the ones at the front must be in pretty rotten shape:
besides the attenuation as they describe the surface of an expanding
sphere, the equipment that produced them wasn't very good to begin with.
- The only other way I've heard of to detect a planet is to examine
any eccentricity in its sun's motion; and I have no idea how well Earth
can be detected that way, since we have 8 competitors, including some
real heavyweights (though it is true that they are at much greater
distances).
- Even from a relatively low height above Earth, no signs of
civilisation can be detected. You have to be surprisingly low before
you can see regularities in surface patterns around New York, for
instance, or the wanderings of the Great Wall of China. Though I grant
that anybody scanning the EM bands at that distance should be bombarded
with regular signals.
How, then, is any non-Terran going to know that there is anything (like
a planet) or anybody here to visit? This seems to me the most likely
reason.
Alastair Milneroyt@gitpyr.UUCP (Roy M. Turner) (07/31/85)
In article <410@ttidcb.UUCP> jackson@ttidcb.UUCP (Dick Jackson) writes: > > > >Wasn't it Fermi who asked about 40 years ago "If there are advanced races >out there in the stars, where are they?" meaning that at least one star >faring race should have explored the whole place by now and we should have >seen them. Well, 40 years ago the idea of going to the moon was considered preposterous, and supersonic travel was "impossible"--so I wouldn't quote 40 year old predictions... My own response is two-fold--the size of the galaxy relative to the size of the earth is such that looking for a needle in a haystack would be child's play by comparison (ie, even if they were looking for intelligent life, think of *all* the area in which to look (don't quote me quotes of they receiving our radio signals, either--this is forty years ago, remember?); the second thing is, why would they come here? Shoot, probably most of us wouldn't be here if we could leave (joke, joke!). > >They would talk to us, and be bored a lot of the time in doing so I guess. >Probably they would plan for very long-term goals . Human's plans >are generally of the order of one year (multiply or divide by ten). Gorillas >and dogs don't plan more than a few seconds ahead. I'm assuming that THEY >are ahead of us in roughly the same ratio as we are ahead of gorillas. > >Presumably they would have concerns that we could not even comprehend, and >therefore cannot now speculate about! Or can we? Anyone care to try? I would recommend Dorothy Lessing's works to anyone interested in these types of questions...as a matter of fact, I would recommend her "Shikasta" series to *anyone*, regardless of their interests. They were primarily philosophical and political criticism vehicles, I suppose, but they were quite good as science fiction in their own right. Or as satire (especially "The Sentimental Agents"). Alas, I can't remember a single other title...there goes the senility again! Roy -- The above opinions aren't necessarily those of etc, etc...but they should be!! Roy Turner (a transplanted Kentucky hillbilly) School of Information and Computer Science Georgia Insitute of Technology, Atlanta Georgia, 30332 ...!{akgua,allegra,amd,hplabs,ihnp4,seismo,ut-ngp}!gatech!gitpyr!royt
Newman.pasa@Xerox.ARPA (08/05/85)
From: Newman.pasa@Xerox.ARPA
Any alien in the solar system will notice us on Earth!!! You assume that
someone looking at earth will be looking at the dayside! Try looking at
the nightside sometime! (Or a picture if you don't have a shuttle ticket
:-) It is very easy to see that something is happening on Earth if you
look at a night-time picture of North America; you can identify most of
the major population centers by the size and approximate location of the
blob of light that sits there. It is also real good confirmation of the
idea of light population.
>>Dave