[mod.newslists] USENET READERSHIP SUMMARY REPORT FOR MAY 86

reid@decwrl.UUCP (06/01/86)

USENET READERSHIP SUMMARY REPORT for May 86

This is a monthly posting from the USENET Measurement Project at the DEC
Western Research Laboratory in Palo Alto, California. 

This survey is based on a sample of data taken from various USENET sites.
At the end of this message there is a short explanation of the measurement
techniques and the meaning of the various statistics.

The complete set of readership data (of which this is a summary) is posted
in mod.newslists

			Brian Reid
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Duplicated data for amdahl


OVERALL SUMMARY:
                             This            Estimated
                            Sample         for entire net
Sites:                      392                 2352
Fraction reporting:       16.67%              100.00%
Users with accounts:      48443               290000
Netreaders:               10967                65000

Average readers per site:                          28
Percent of users who are netreaders:            22.64%
Average traffic per day (megabytes):            1.908
Average traffic per day (messages):               886
Traffic measurement interval:    last              21 days
Readership measurement interval: last              75 days

TOP 40 NEWSGROUPS IN ORDER BY POPULARITY
       +-- Estimated total number of people who read the group, worldwide.
       |     +-- Actual number of readers in sampled population
       |     |     +-- Recent traffic, in messages per month. 
       |     |     |     +-- Recent traffic, in kilobytes per month.
       |     |     |     |       +-- Participation ratio: msgs/month/Krdrs
       |     |     |     |       |     +-- Cost ratio: $US/month/reader
       |     |     |     |       |     |      +-- Rating: % of all users who
       |     |     |     |       |     |      |   read this group.
       |     |     |     |       |     |      |       +-- Share: % newsreaders
       |     |     |     |       |     |      |       |   who read this group.
       V     V     V     V       V     V      V       V
  1 15000  2842    7   14.2      0   0.00    5.9%   25.9%  net.announce
  2 15000  2712   35   88.6      2   0.02    5.6%   24.7%  net.general
  3 14000  2619  928 1098.5     66   0.31    5.4%   23.9%  net.jokes
  4 12000  2181  137 2070.2     11   0.68    4.5%   19.9%  net.sources
  5 11000  2015    8   71.8      0   0.03    4.2%   18.4%  net.announce.newuse
  6  9200  1695  102  226.7     11   0.10    3.5%   15.5%  net.jobs
  7  8900  1656   45 1038.3      5   0.46    3.4%   15.1%  mod.sources
  8  7400  1378    8   23.6      1   0.01    2.8%   12.6%  mod.newprod
  9  7300  1346  277  468.4     37   0.25    2.8%   12.3%  net.unix
 10  7200  1330  251  652.5     34   0.36    2.7%   12.1%  net.micro
 11  7000  1296  452  728.7     64   0.41    2.7%   11.8%  net.rumor
 12  7000  1288  314  605.7     44   0.34    2.7%   11.7%  net.unix-wizards
 13  6700  1234  191  209.5     28   0.12    2.5%   11.3%  net.wanted
 14  6600  1224 1098 1900.1    166   1.10    2.5%   11.2%  net.singles
 15  6500  1208   15  142.1      2   0.09    2.5%   11.0%  net.sources.games
 16  6200  1154  488 1052.2     78   0.67    2.4%   10.5%  net.micro.pc
 17  6200  1151  308  537.1     49   0.34    2.4%   10.5%  net.audio
 18  6100  1136    2   11.6      0   0.01    2.3%   10.4%  mod.os.unix
 19  6100  1132   45   71.8      7   0.05    2.3%   10.3%  net.sources.bugs
 20  6100  1124  424  725.7     69   0.47    2.3%   10.2%  net.lang.c
 21  6100  1124   17   35.0      2   0.02    2.3%   10.2%  net.announce.arpa-i
 22  6000  1117  150  269.4     25   0.18    2.3%   10.2%  net.arch
 23  5900  1089  381  602.4     64   0.40    2.2%    9.9%  net.movies
 24  5600  1040  532  920.8     95   0.64    2.1%    9.5%  net.micro.mac
 25  5500  1015   91  179.6     16   0.13    2.1%    9.3%  net.ai
 26  5400  1002   67   94.2     12   0.07    2.1%    9.1%  net.sources.d
 27  5400  1000  281  443.7     52   0.32    2.1%    9.1%  net.consumers
 28  5300   985   64  180.1     12   0.13    2.0%    9.0%  net.graphics
 29  5200   968  181  247.0     34   0.19    2.0%    8.8%  net.cooks
 30  5200   956  221  370.5     42   0.28    2.0%    8.7%  net.misc
 31  5100   938  191  357.8     37   0.27    1.9%    8.6%  net.news
 32  5000   926  312  708.9     62   0.56    1.9%    8.4%  net.women
 33  4900   902   34   59.8      6   0.05    1.9%    8.2%  net.columbia
 34  4800   881  665 1140.2    138   0.93    1.8%    8.0%  net.music
 35  4700   878   50  797.3     10   0.66    1.8%    8.0%  mod.sources.doc
 36  4700   875   42   65.0      9   0.05    1.8%    8.0%  net.lang
 37  4700   867   12   17.7      2   0.01    1.8%    7.9%  net.research
 38  4600   852  235  524.0     51   0.45    1.8%    7.8%  net.space
 39  4600   850  111  115.8     24   0.10    1.8%    7.8%  net.wanted.sources
 40  4600   845   25   36.2      5   0.03    1.7%    7.7%  net.micro.68k

TOP 40 NEWSGROUPS IN ORDER BY PER-READER COST
       +-- Estimated total number of people who read the group, worldwide.
       |     +-- Actual number of readers in sampled population
       |     |     +-- Recent traffic, in messages per month. 
       |     |     |     +-- Recent traffic, in kilobytes per month.
       |     |     |     |       +-- Participation ratio: msgs/month/Krdrs
       |     |     |     |       |     +-- Cost ratio: $US/month/reader
       |     |     |     |       |     |      +-- Rating: % of all users who
       |     |     |     |       |     |      |   read this group.
       |     |     |     |       |     |      |       +-- Share: % newsreaders
       |     |     |     |       |     |      |       |   who read this group.
       V     V     V     V       V     V      V       V
  1  2800   526 1111 2661.2    396   3.70    1.1%    4.8%  net.politics
  2   950   175  252  636.8    266   2.60    0.4%    1.6%  net.politics.theory
  3  1500   278  214  972.0    142   2.50    0.6%    2.5%  net.religion.christ
  4  2000   373  427 1192.0    213   2.30    0.8%    3.4%  net.philosophy
  5  4600   843   88 2269.4     19   1.90    1.7%    7.7%  net.sources.mac
  6  2000   369  227  801.8    113   1.60    0.8%    3.4%  net.religion
  7  6600  1224 1098 1900.1    166   1.10    2.5%   11.2%  net.singles
  8  2800   517  394  759.4    140   1.10    1.1%    4.7%  net.micro.atari16
  9  1500   282  114  381.0     76   1.00    0.6%    2.6%  net.religion.jewish
 10  4500   835  651 1076.9    144   0.94    1.7%    7.6%  net.auto
 11  4800   881  665 1140.2    138   0.93    1.8%    8.0%  net.music
 12  4200   778  657  978.3    156   0.91    1.6%    7.1%  net.sf-lovers
 13  4400   821  464  908.2    105   0.81    1.7%    7.5%  net.micro.amiga
 14  2200   412  234  452.6    106   0.81    0.9%    3.8%  net.comics
 15  2100   396   34  432.8     16   0.81    0.8%    3.6%  mod.music
 16  1700   306  115  340.8     68   0.79    0.6%    2.8%  net.origins
 17  4500   833  435  880.4     96   0.77    1.7%    7.6%  net.news.group
 18  4300   790  422  808.9     98   0.74    1.6%    7.2%  net.followup
 19  2300   431  184  419.8     80   0.72    0.9%    3.9%  net.games.frp
 20  1700   316  124  302.5     73   0.70    0.7%    2.9%  net.abortion
 21  3200   600  400  566.3    124   0.69    1.2%    5.5%  net.startrek
 22 12000  2181  137 2070.2     11   0.68    4.5%   19.9%  net.sources
 23  6200  1154  488 1052.2     78   0.67    2.4%   10.5%  net.micro.pc
 24  4700   878   50  797.3     10   0.66    1.8%    8.0%  mod.sources.doc
 25   810   150   81  136.8    100   0.66    0.3%    1.4%  net.consumers.house
 26  5600  1040  532  920.8     95   0.64    2.1%    9.5%  net.micro.mac
 27  2300   423  158  375.9     68   0.64    0.9%    3.9%  net.motss
 28  1800   328  151  289.3     84   0.63    0.7%    3.0%  net.sport.hoops
 29  3300   610  354  504.5    107   0.60    1.3%    5.6%  net.tv
 30   590   110   67   88.7    113   0.59    0.2%    1.0%  net.rec.drugs
 31  5000   926  312  708.9     62   0.56    1.9%    8.4%  net.women
 32  2300   425  137  317.4     59   0.54    0.9%    3.9%  net.bio
 33  1700   310  118  233.4     69   0.54    0.6%    2.8%  net.nlang.india
 34  3200   599  208  416.7     65   0.51    1.2%    5.5%  net.kids
 35  3400   637  244  430.9     71   0.50    1.3%    5.8%  mod.computers.vax
 36  3600   671  228  449.1     63   0.49    1.4%    6.1%  net.sci
 37  6100  1124  424  725.7     69   0.47    2.3%   10.2%  net.lang.c
 38  8900  1656   45 1038.3      5   0.46    3.4%   15.1%  mod.sources
 39  4600   852  235  524.0     51   0.45    1.8%    7.8%  net.space
 40  3000   558  190  342.9     63   0.45    1.2%    5.1%  mod.protocols.tcp-i

TOP 40 NEWSGROUPS IN ORDER BY MESSAGES PER READER
       +-- Estimated total number of people who read the group, worldwide.
       |     +-- Actual number of readers in sampled population
       |     |     +-- Recent traffic, in messages per month. 
       |     |     |     +-- Recent traffic, in kilobytes per month.
       |     |     |     |       +-- Participation ratio: msgs/month/Krdrs
       |     |     |     |       |     +-- Cost ratio: $US/month/reader
       |     |     |     |       |     |      +-- Rating: % of all users who
       |     |     |     |       |     |      |   read this group.
       |     |     |     |       |     |      |       +-- Share: % newsreaders
       |     |     |     |       |     |      |       |   who read this group.
       V     V     V     V       V     V      V       V
  1  2800   526 1111 2661.2    396   3.70    1.1%    4.8%  net.politics
  2   950   175  252  636.8    266   2.60    0.4%    1.6%  net.politics.theory
  3  2000   373  427 1192.0    213   2.30    0.8%    3.4%  net.philosophy
  4  6600  1224 1098 1900.1    166   1.10    2.5%   11.2%  net.singles
  5  4200   778  657  978.3    156   0.91    1.6%    7.1%  net.sf-lovers
  6  4500   835  651 1076.9    144   0.94    1.7%    7.6%  net.auto
  7  1500   278  214  972.0    142   2.50    0.6%    2.5%  net.religion.christ
  8  2800   517  394  759.4    140   1.10    1.1%    4.7%  net.micro.atari16
  9  4800   881  665 1140.2    138   0.93    1.8%    8.0%  net.music
 10  3200   600  400  566.3    124   0.69    1.2%    5.5%  net.startrek
 11  2000   369  227  801.8    113   1.60    0.8%    3.4%  net.religion
 12   590   110   67   88.7    113   0.59    0.2%    1.0%  net.rec.drugs
 13  3300   610  354  504.5    107   0.60    1.3%    5.6%  net.tv
 14  2200   412  234  452.6    106   0.81    0.9%    3.8%  net.comics
 15  4400   821  464  908.2    105   0.81    1.7%    7.5%  net.micro.amiga
 16   810   150   81  136.8    100   0.66    0.3%    1.4%  net.consumers.house
 17  4300   790  422  808.9     98   0.74    1.6%    7.2%  net.followup
 18  4500   833  435  880.4     96   0.77    1.7%    7.6%  net.news.group
 19  5600  1040  532  920.8     95   0.64    2.1%    9.5%  net.micro.mac
 20  1800   328  151  289.3     84   0.63    0.7%    3.0%  net.sport.hoops
 21  2300   431  184  419.8     80   0.72    0.9%    3.9%  net.games.frp
 22  6200  1154  488 1052.2     78   0.67    2.4%   10.5%  net.micro.pc
 23  1500   282  114  381.0     76   1.00    0.6%    2.6%  net.religion.jewish
 24  1700   316  124  302.5     73   0.70    0.7%    2.9%  net.abortion
 25  2600   475  188  246.9     72   0.37    1.0%    4.3%  net.pets
 26  3400   637  244  430.9     71   0.50    1.3%    5.8%  mod.computers.vax
 27  6100  1124  424  725.7     69   0.47    2.3%   10.2%  net.lang.c
 28  1700   310  118  233.4     69   0.54    0.6%    2.8%  net.nlang.india
 29  2300   423  158  375.9     68   0.64    0.9%    3.9%  net.motss
 30  1700   306  115  340.8     68   0.79    0.6%    2.8%  net.origins
 31 14000  2619  928 1098.5     66   0.31    5.4%   23.9%  net.jokes
 32  3100   573  205  263.4     66   0.33    1.2%    5.2%  net.games.hack
 33  3200   599  208  416.7     65   0.51    1.2%    5.5%  net.kids
 34  1400   261   91  126.2     65   0.35    0.5%    2.4%  net.micro.atari8
 35  7000  1296  452  728.7     64   0.41    2.7%   11.8%  net.rumor
 36  5900  1089  381  602.4     64   0.40    2.2%    9.9%  net.movies
 37  3600   671  228  449.1     63   0.49    1.4%    6.1%  net.sci
 38  3000   558  190  342.9     63   0.45    1.2%    5.1%  mod.protocols.tcp-i
 39  5000   926  312  708.9     62   0.56    1.9%    8.4%  net.women
 40  1300   241   78   55.5     60   0.17    0.5%    2.2%  net.test

BOTTOM 10 NEWSGROUPS IN ORDER BY POPULARITY
       +-- Estimated total number of people who read the group, worldwide.
       |     +-- Actual number of readers in sampled population
       |     |     +-- Recent traffic, in messages per month. 
       |     |     |     +-- Recent traffic, in kilobytes per month.
       |     |     |     |       +-- Participation ratio: msgs/month/Krdrs
       |     |     |     |       |     +-- Cost ratio: $US/month/reader
       |     |     |     |       |     |      +-- Rating: % of all users who
       |     |     |     |       |     |      |   read this group.
       |     |     |     |       |     |      |       +-- Share: % newsreaders
       |     |     |     |       |     |      |       |   who read this group.
       V     V     V     V       V     V      V       V
213  1000   194    4    9.4      4   0.04    0.4%    1.8%  net.nlang.africa
214   950   175  252  636.8    266   2.60    0.4%    1.6%  net.politics.theory
215   940   174    7   12.0      7   0.05    0.4%    1.6%  net.nlang.greek
216   810   150   81  136.8    100   0.66    0.3%    1.4%  net.consumers.house
217   590   110   67   88.7    113   0.59    0.2%    1.0%  net.rec.drugs
218   460    86   10   17.4     21   0.15    0.2%    0.8%  net.politics.terror
219   450    84    1    4.0      3   0.03    0.2%    0.8%  mod.amiga
220   240    44    2    4.5     11   0.07    0.1%    0.4%  net.micro.ns32k
221   210    39   11   10.4     54   0.19    0.1%    0.4%  mod.computers.massc
222   160    29    1    1.1      8   0.03    0.1%    0.3%  net.house

Valid data received from these sites:

3comvax aaec acetes adobe aero akgua akgub akguc alberta alv amdahl
amdcad amdimage arran.tcom.stc.co.uk arrow ascvax astroatc astrovax
atari athena aurora basser bdmrrr bene bentley birtch bocar boring
brand btnix burl bute.tcom.stc.co.uk cadomin caip.rutgers.edu calma
carmel cascade cavell cbosgd cca ccvaxa celerity chalmers cheviot
chinet chronon circe cod cogsci.berkeley.edu columbia cooper cord
csee-vax csi csib cuae2 cuuxb cvl cxsea cybvax0 dalcs davinci
dec-2littl dec-7618 dec-ace dec-akov68 dec-amber dec-angora dec-anyway
dec-argus dec-avanti dec-babel dec-bagels dec-bartok dec-beorn dec-beta
dec-bigalo dec-blott.uucp dec-boves dec-cadvax dec-casv01 dec-celica
dec-clt dec-cmkrnl dec-comet dec-comet2 dec-crvax1 dec-curie dec-curium
dec-dairy dec-delni dec-derep dec-ditto dec-dosadi dec-dregs dec-dssdev
dec-dvinci dec-ecadjr dec-elwood dec-enet dec-euclid dec-exodus
dec-fakehosts dec-fremen dec-gallo dec-gaynes dec-genral dec-glory
dec-gndzro dec-gramps dec-grofe dec-grok dec-highfi dec-hydra dec-ink
dec-iosg dec-jon dec-kirk dec-koning dec-latour dec-logic dec-ludwig
dec-lymph dec-miles dec-mlokai dec-mosaic dec-mradm dec-mrmfg3
dec-mtblue dec-netwrk dec-nimbus dec-nonode dec-nova dec-nutmeg
dec-oblio dec-oracle dec-osav01 dec-parrot dec-parvax dec-patois
dec-pipa dec-pisces dec-pldvax dec-quoin dec-rainbo dec-rangly
dec-raven1 dec-rhea dec-roxie dec-shorty dec-star dec-stoli dec-tallis
dec-tkov58 dec-tle dec-tonto dec-trco01 dec-ultra dec-vaxwrk dec-verdi
dec-wizdom dec-yogi decwrl desint desoto diablo dicome dione down
drexel edison edsel elsie eros felix fluffy foxvax5 fritz frog
frog.nosc.mil frog.nosc.mil ganash garfield.columbia.edu garfield.mun
gatech gcc-milo genrad gitpyr glacier glimmer gondor gould9 greg
grkermi gt-oscar gt-stratus hammer handel harvard hercules ho95e hocad
hoptoad hudson ia-sun2 iapetus icom ihu1n im4u imagen imt3b2 imt3b2
infinet infopro investor ipso iscuva ishtar jasper jplgodo kepler
kestrel killer kodak kontron kosman labrea ll-vlsi lll-crg lll-lcc
lmi-ang lmi-angel lsuc luke macbeth masscomp mcc-pp mcgill- mck-csc
meccts medea megaron mhuxh midacs mips mirror mit-eddie mnetor moncol
mordred msudoc mtgzy mtgzz mtu mtung mtunh muddcs mulga munnari myrias
navajo nbires ncoast nmtvax noao novavax nsc oberon ocean octopus
oddjob ohgua onecom opus orstcs osiris otto paisley panda parcvax
pembina peregrine philabs phri phuxa phuxc pierce plooba plus5 pogo
potomac princeton prism psivax psuvax1 pucc-h pucc-i pucc-j pucc-k
pyramid ra rayssd reed ritcv rose3 rsch saber sandia saturn sauron
scicom se-sd seismo sems sfmag sfsup shasta sigma sneaky sneezy spastic
stat-l stride stsci styx su-isl su-russell suadb tahoe talcott teddy
tekchips tekcrl tekig5 teklds tflop tikal tilt titn topaz.rutgers.edu
trillian tucos tulane turtlevax tut twitch tymix ucbvax.berkeley.edu
ucsfcgl uiucuxa uiucuxc uiucuxe uiucuxf ukma ulowell umd-cs umd-ua
unmvax unrvax usc-obe ut-sally utah-cs utah-gr utcs uwslh vianet voder
vu-vlsi vulcan walldata wang7 wanginst watarts watcgl watdais watdaisy
watdcsu watdrag watdragon wateng water watlion watmath watmum watnot
watpix watrose watvlsi well wicat yale yetti zeus zinfandel

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
		EXPLANATION OF THE MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICS

Survey data is taken by having one person at each site run a program called
"arbitron", which looks at the news or notes files and determines the
newsgroups that the user has read within a recent interval. To "read" a
newsgroup means to have been presented with the opportunity to look at at
least one message in it. Going through a newsgroup with the "n" key counts
as reading it. For a news site, "user X reads group Y" means that user X's
.newsrc file has marked at least one unexpired message in Y. If there is no
traffic in a newsgroup for the measurement period, then the survey will show
that nobody reads the group. For a notes site, "user X reads group Y" means
that user X has been in the notesfile with the sequencer in the last 14 days.
The "14 days" interval for notesfiles corresponds to "unexpired" for news.

The "arbitron" program is periodically posted to net.sources, or is available
from me (decwrl!reid). The notesfiles version of the program should be
available through standard notesfiles software distribution channels as well.

SITES SURVEYED IN THIS SAMPLE

"This Sample" means the set of sites that have sent in an arbitron report
within the past "Readership measurement interval" days. In every case the
most recent report from each site is used. At the moment, some of the
readership reports are several months old. In future postings those reports
will have expired and will not be included.

One might argue that the sample is self-selected, like the famous Literary
Digest Dewey-Truman election poll sample. It does in fact have a certain
self-selection factor in it, because we only get data from sites at which
someone participates in the survey. However, we do not require the
participation of every user at a site, only one user. The survey program
returns data for every user on the system on which it was run. Since there
are an average of 40 people per site reading news, there is a certain amount
of randomness introduced that way. Of course, the sample is biased in favor
of large sites (they are more likely to have a user willing to run the survey
program) and software-development-oriented sites (more likely to have a user
*able* to run the survey program). I intend to post, reasonably soon, some
breakdowns of statistics about the sites that have responded.

NETWORK SIZE

I determine the network size by looking at the set of sites that are
mentioned in the Path lines of news articles arriving at decwrl. This number
is consistently higher than the number of sites that posted a message (as
measured and posted from Seismo) because it includes passive sites that are
on the paths between posting sites and decwrl. 

There are 2352 different sites in the Path lines of articles that
arrived at decwrl in the last month. There are 3819 different sites in
the mod.map data, but mod.map includes every site that participates in uucp;
there is a considerable number of machines that exchange uucp mail but do not
get USENET. Of those 2352 sites, 100 (4%) are DEC E-net hosts not part of
uucp. The DEC E-net participation in USENET complicates the statistics,
because we have 100% data for readership of USENET inside the DEC-Enet,
which makes extrapolating less accurate. 

Despite these various difficulties, I believe that 2352 is the best
estimate for the size of USENET. Because it is actually a measurement of the
number of sites that have posted a message or that are on the path to a site
that has posted a message, it will be slightly smaller than the number of
sites that actually read netnews. Any site that believes it is not being
counted can just ensure that it posts at least one message a month, so that
it will be counted.


NUMBER OF USERS

The number of users at each site is determined in a site-specific fashion.
Sometimes it is done by counting the number of user accounts that have
shells and login directories. Sometimes it is done by counting the number of
people who have logged in to the machine in some interval. Sometimes other
techniques are used. This number is probably not very accurate--certainly
not more accurate than to within a factor of two.

ESTIMATED TOTAL NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO READ THIS GROUP, WORLDWIDE

There are two sources of error in this number. The number is computed by
multiplying the number of people in the sample who actually read the group by
the ratio of estimated network size to sample size. The estimated total can
therefore be biased by errors in the network size estimate (see above) and
also by errors in the determination of whether or not someone reads a group.
Assuming that "reading a group" is roughly the same as "thumbing through a
magazine", in that you don't necessarily have to read anything, but you have
to browse through it and see what is there, then the measurement error will
come primarily from inability to locate .newsrc files, which can either be
protected or moved out of root directories. I sampled 13 machines recently
and found only 2 users out of 715 who were actually news readers but whose
.newsrc file was not in their root directory. From this I have concluded that
the problem is not worth worrying about, since the error in network size
estimation will totally dominate it.

MESSAGES PER MONTH AND KILOBYTES PER MONTH

Traffic is measured at decwrl. Any message that has arrived at decwrl within
the last "Traffic measurement interval" days is counted, regardless of when
it was posted. Monthly rates are computed by taking the total traffic,
dividing by the number of days in the traffic measurement interval, and
multiplying by 30. Decwrl runs 2.10.3 news, which does not store the
"Date-Received", "Relay-version" or "Posting-version" header lines; the
amount of space occupied at your site might be higher, and the number of
bytes transmitted between machines is probably higher. By definition this
number is correct, because it is an exact measurement, but it may differ from
the traffic at your site by as much as 15% due to timing differences and news
version differences. Timing differences will be random, but will average out
in the long run. News version differences will cause a systematic error that
is uniform across all newsgroups, and which therefore does not affect ratios.

Crossposted messages are tallied in all groups to which they are crossposted.

PARTICIPATION RATIO: MESSAGES per MONTH per 1000 READERS

This number is exactly what it says: the number of messages per month in
that newsgroup, divided by the number of 1000 readers. It is an indication
of how involved the readers of the group are in the traffic, of whether they
are mostly listeners or mostly talkers. Its accuracy is limited by the
accuracy of its two components. The messages per month  figure is exact; the
reader count is only as accurate as the network size estimate, which is in
worst case accurate to 40%. Therefore you should treat this number as having
an error margin of plus or minus 40%. However, ratios between participation
ratios for different newsgroups are quite accurate, since the network-size
component divides out.

COST RATIO: DOLLARS PER MONTH PER READER

The most controversial field in the survey report is the "$US per month per
reader". It is the estimated number of dollars that are being spent on
behalf of each reader, worldwide, on telephone costs to transmit this
newsgroup. The cost ratio does not include the cost of disk storage to store
the news or of computer time to process it; both of those are assumed to be
free.

The cost ratio is computed as follows:

$US/month/reader = ($USPerMonthPerSite * numberOfSites) / numberOfReaders
$USPerMonthPersite = KBytesTrafficPerMonth * $USPerKByte
$USPerKByte = ($USperMinute / KBytesPerMinute) * (1 - CompressionFactor)
$USperMinute = 0.10	[ten cents per minute avg phone cost]
KBytesPerMinute = 60 * BytesPerSecond / 1000
BytesPerSecond = 100	[average transfer rate over 1200-baud line]
CompressionFactor = 0.4 [40% compression is typical for netnews]

Combining all these gives

$USPerMonthPersite =
    KBytesTrafficPerMonth * (0.10 / 6) * (1 - 0.4)
  = KBytesTrafficPerMonth / 100

Therefore:

$US/month/reader =
    (KBytesTrafficPerMonth * numberOfSites) / (100 * numberOfReaders)

The accuracy of this number is in fact better than the accuracy of the
participation ratio, because the source of error--the network size
estimate--is present both in the numerator and the denominator, and therefore
cancels out. The primary source of bias in this number comes from the bias in
the "estimated number of readers, worldwide", which is described above. Treat
this value as being accurate to within about 25%.

SITE PARTICIPATION

I would like to receive data from every site on USENET. The arbitron program
works on news 2.9, 2.10.1, and 2.10.2; Rich Salz has a version that works on
notesfiles.


Brian Reid
DEC Western Research Laboratory, Palo Alto CA
reid@decwrl.DEC.COM
{ihnp4,allegra,decvax,ucbvax,sun,glacier}!decwrl!reid