[mod.newslists] USENET READERSHIP SUMMARY REPORT FOR JUL 86

reid@decwrl.UUCP (08/01/86)

USENET READERSHIP SUMMARY REPORT for Jul 86

This is a monthly posting from the USENET Measurement Project at the DEC
Western Research Laboratory in Palo Alto, California. 

This survey is based on a sample of data taken from various USENET sites.
At the end of this message there is a short explanation of the measurement
techniques and the meaning of the various statistics.

The complete set of readership data (of which this is a summary) is posted
in mod.newslists

			Brian Reid
			
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Recent change: the size of the network is now determined by counting the
number of host names seen in the last 6 months. Previously it was determined
by counting the number of host names seen in the previous 30 days. As I
accumulate more data, I will eventually use 12 months as the time base for
this purpose, so that if a host posts only one message a year, it will be
counted. (For more information, read the explanation at the end of this msg)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------



OVERALL SUMMARY:
                             This            Estimated
                            Sample         for entire net
Sites:                      392                 3700
Fraction reporting:       10.59%                 100%
Users with accounts:      54065               510000
Netreaders:               12229               115000

Average readers per site:                          31
Percent of users who are netreaders:            22.62%
Average traffic per day (megabytes):            1.491
Average traffic per day (messages):               629
Traffic measurement interval:    last              21 days
Readership measurement interval: last              75 days

TOP 40 NEWSGROUPS IN ORDER BY POPULARITY
       +-- Estimated total number of people who read the group, worldwide.
       |     +-- Actual number of readers in sampled population
       |     |     +-- Recent traffic, in messages per month. 
       |     |     |     +-- Recent traffic, in kilobytes per month.
       |     |     |     |       +-- Participation ratio: msgs/month/Krdrs
       |     |     |     |       |     +-- Cost ratio: $US/month/reader
       |     |     |     |       |     |      +-- Rating: % of all users who
       |     |     |     |       |     |      |   read this group.
       |     |     |     |       |     |      |       +-- Share: % newsreaders
       |     |     |     |       |     |      |       |   who read this group.
       V     V     V     V       V     V      V       V
  1 24000  2860   40  113.5      1   0.02    5.3%   23.4%  net.general
  2 23000  2670  542  714.9     23   0.12    4.9%   21.8%  net.jokes
  3 19000  2199  152 1265.1      8   0.26    4.1%   18.0%  net.sources
  4 16000  1892  142  302.4      8   0.07    3.5%   15.5%  net.jobs
  5 15000  1820   57 1885.1      3   0.49    3.4%   14.9%  mod.sources
  6 13000  1476  245  390.2     18   0.12    2.7%   12.1%  net.unix
  7 12000  1441  785 1374.7     65   0.45    2.7%   11.8%  net.singles
  8 12000  1393  128  130.0     10   0.04    2.6%   11.4%  net.wanted
  9 12000  1365  262  428.0     21   0.14    2.5%   11.2%  net.unix-wizards
 10 11000  1351  197  453.7     17   0.16    2.5%   11.0%  net.micro
 11 11000  1308  125 1921.6     11   0.68    2.4%   10.7%  net.sources.games
 12 11000  1262   14   43.0      1   0.02    2.3%   10.3%  mod.newprod
 13 11000  1261   27   37.0      2   0.01    2.3%   10.3%  net.ai
 14 11000  1259  288  448.7     26   0.16    2.3%   10.3%  net.audio
 15 10000  1217  392  680.8     39   0.27    2.3%   10.0%  net.lang.c
 16 10000  1212  361  994.9     36   0.39    2.2%    9.9%  net.micro.pc
 17 10000  1205  161  182.4     16   0.07    2.2%    9.9%  net.rumor
 18 10000  1198  161  368.7     16   0.14    2.2%    9.8%  net.arch
 19 10000  1187   42   87.5      4   0.03    2.2%    9.7%  net.sources.bugs
 20  9900  1163   24   88.2      2   0.03    2.2%    9.5%  net.announce.arpa-i
 21  9500  1124  364  648.2     38   0.27    2.1%    9.2%  net.micro.mac
 22  9500  1120  337  507.3     35   0.21    2.1%    9.2%  net.movies
 23  9300  1092   72  151.5      7   0.06    2.0%    8.9%  net.news
 24  9100  1073  154  213.5     16   0.09    2.0%    8.8%  net.consumers
 25  9100  1068   61  173.3      6   0.07    2.0%    8.7%  net.sources.d
 26  9100  1068   60  100.1      6   0.04    2.0%    8.7%  net.graphics
 27  8500  1005    1    4.3      0   0.00    1.9%    8.2%  mod.os.unix
 28  8500  1004  348  842.4     41   0.39    1.9%    8.2%  net.women
 29  8500   995  241  379.2     28   0.17    1.8%    8.1%  net.cooks
 30  8400   986   88   88.3     10   0.04    1.8%    8.1%  net.wanted.sources
 31  8300   981  565 1048.2     68   0.50    1.8%    8.0%  net.music
 32  8300   976  147  203.4     17   0.10    1.8%    8.0%  net.news.group
 33  8200   967   60   72.6      7   0.03    1.8%    7.9%  net.misc
 34  8000   945    2    3.9      0   0.00    1.7%    7.7%  mod.human-nets
 35  8000   939  448  746.3     56   0.37    1.7%    7.7%  net.auto
 36  8000   938   31  522.4      3   0.26    1.7%    7.7%  net.sources.mac
 37  7900   932   95  179.7     12   0.09    1.7%    7.6%  net.books
 38  7800   920  325  584.3     41   0.29    1.7%    7.5%  net.micro.amiga
 39  7700   908   41   58.2      5   0.03    1.7%    7.4%  net.jokes.d
 40  7600   892   72  202.6      9   0.10    1.6%    7.3%  net.lang

TOP 40 NEWSGROUPS IN ORDER BY PER-READER COST
       +-- Estimated total number of people who read the group, worldwide.
       |     +-- Actual number of readers in sampled population
       |     |     +-- Recent traffic, in messages per month. 
       |     |     |     +-- Recent traffic, in kilobytes per month.
       |     |     |     |       +-- Participation ratio: msgs/month/Krdrs
       |     |     |     |       |     +-- Cost ratio: $US/month/reader
       |     |     |     |       |     |      +-- Rating: % of all users who
       |     |     |     |       |     |      |   read this group.
       |     |     |     |       |     |      |       +-- Share: % newsreaders
       |     |     |     |       |     |      |       |   who read this group.
       V     V     V     V       V     V      V       V
  1  5100   598  277 1849.8     54   1.40    1.1%    4.9%  net.micro.atari16
  2  2300   273  100  623.2     43   1.10    0.5%    2.2%  mod.comp-soc
  3  3000   356  162  686.3     54   0.90    0.7%    2.9%  net.religion.christ
  4  5300   622  491 1145.0     92   0.85    1.2%    5.1%  net.politics
  5  4100   482  314  731.8     76   0.70    0.9%    3.9%  net.philosophy
  6  2100   251  140  370.1     66   0.69    0.5%    2.1%  net.politics.theory
  7 11000  1308  125 1921.6     11   0.68    2.4%   10.7%  net.sources.games
  8  7300   856  565 1035.2     77   0.56    1.6%    7.0%  net.sf-lovers
  9  8300   981  565 1048.2     68   0.50    1.8%    8.0%  net.music
 10  4300   507  281  549.5     65   0.50    0.9%    4.1%  net.comics
 11 15000  1820   57 1885.1      3   0.49    3.4%   14.9%  mod.sources
 12  3400   402  124  412.2     36   0.48    0.7%    3.3%  net.religion
 13 12000  1441  785 1374.7     65   0.45    2.7%   11.8%  net.singles
 14  3200   382  147  345.6     45   0.42    0.7%    3.1%  net.tv.drwho
 15 10000  1212  361  994.9     36   0.39    2.2%    9.9%  net.micro.pc
 16  8500  1004  348  842.4     41   0.39    1.9%    8.2%  net.women
 17  8000   939  448  746.3     56   0.37    1.7%    7.7%  net.auto
 18  3400   399  174  318.4     51   0.37    0.7%    3.3%  net.sport.baseball
 19  3800   445   64  310.8     16   0.32    0.8%    3.6%  net.abortion
 20  3800   453  127  300.5     33   0.31    0.8%    3.7%  net.ham-radio
 21  2800   333   12  218.5      4   0.31    0.6%    2.7%  mod.politics.arms-d
 22  4500   533  194  347.1     43   0.30    1.0%    4.4%  net.pets
 23  7800   920  325  584.3     41   0.29    1.7%    7.5%  net.micro.amiga
 24  6200   732  147  439.0     23   0.28    1.4%    6.0%  net.sci
 25 10000  1217  392  680.8     39   0.27    2.3%   10.0%  net.lang.c
 26  9500  1124  364  648.2     38   0.27    2.1%    9.2%  net.micro.mac
 27  3600   423   15  249.1      4   0.27    0.8%    3.5%  mod.music
 28 19000  2199  152 1265.1      8   0.26    4.1%   18.0%  net.sources
 29  8000   938   31  522.4      3   0.26    1.7%    7.7%  net.sources.mac
 30  7500   879  218  490.0     29   0.26    1.6%    7.2%  net.followup
 31  4800   565  131  321.0     27   0.26    1.0%    4.6%  net.motss
 32  4100   481  102  274.2     25   0.26    0.9%    3.9%  net.games.frp
 33  3300   385  138  213.1     41   0.25    0.7%    3.1%  net.nlang.india
 34  2500   289   90  161.2     36   0.25    0.5%    2.4%  net.tv.soaps
 35  3300   389   92  198.6     28   0.24    0.7%    3.2%  net.music.gdead
 36  6400   755  249  380.0     39   0.23    1.4%    6.2%  mod.computers.vax
 37  3300   384   70  192.8     21   0.23    0.7%    3.1%  net.origins
 38  5700   671  208  314.9     36   0.22    1.2%    5.5%  net.startrek
 39  5500   648  170  303.1     30   0.22    1.2%    5.3%  net.video
 40  4900   578  187  277.4     38   0.22    1.1%    4.7%  net.aviation

TOP 40 NEWSGROUPS IN ORDER BY MESSAGES PER READER
       +-- Estimated total number of people who read the group, worldwide.
       |     +-- Actual number of readers in sampled population
       |     |     +-- Recent traffic, in messages per month. 
       |     |     |     +-- Recent traffic, in kilobytes per month.
       |     |     |     |       +-- Participation ratio: msgs/month/Krdrs
       |     |     |     |       |     +-- Cost ratio: $US/month/reader
       |     |     |     |       |     |      +-- Rating: % of all users who
       |     |     |     |       |     |      |   read this group.
       |     |     |     |       |     |      |       +-- Share: % newsreaders
       |     |     |     |       |     |      |       |   who read this group.
       V     V     V     V       V     V      V       V
  1  5300   622  491 1145.0     92   0.85    1.2%    5.1%  net.politics
  2  7300   856  565 1035.2     77   0.56    1.6%    7.0%  net.sf-lovers
  3  4100   482  314  731.8     76   0.70    0.9%    3.9%  net.philosophy
  4  8300   981  565 1048.2     68   0.50    1.8%    8.0%  net.music
  5  2100   251  140  370.1     66   0.69    0.5%    2.1%  net.politics.theory
  6 12000  1441  785 1374.7     65   0.45    2.7%   11.8%  net.singles
  7  4300   507  281  549.5     65   0.50    0.9%    4.1%  net.comics
  8  8000   939  448  746.3     56   0.37    1.7%    7.7%  net.auto
  9  5100   598  277 1849.8     54   1.40    1.1%    4.9%  net.micro.atari16
 10  3000   356  162  686.3     54   0.90    0.7%    2.9%  net.religion.christ
 11  3400   399  174  318.4     51   0.37    0.7%    3.3%  net.sport.baseball
 12  3200   382  147  345.6     45   0.42    0.7%    3.1%  net.tv.drwho
 13  4500   533  194  347.1     43   0.30    1.0%    4.4%  net.pets
 14  2300   273  100  623.2     43   1.10    0.5%    2.2%  mod.comp-soc
 15  8500  1004  348  842.4     41   0.39    1.9%    8.2%  net.women
 16  7800   920  325  584.3     41   0.29    1.7%    7.5%  net.micro.amiga
 17  3300   385  138  213.1     41   0.25    0.7%    3.1%  net.nlang.india
 18 10000  1217  392  680.8     39   0.27    2.3%   10.0%  net.lang.c
 19  6400   755  249  380.0     39   0.23    1.4%    6.2%  mod.computers.vax
 20  9500  1124  364  648.2     38   0.27    2.1%    9.2%  net.micro.mac
 21  4900   578  187  277.4     38   0.22    1.1%    4.7%  net.aviation
 22 10000  1212  361  994.9     36   0.39    2.2%    9.9%  net.micro.pc
 23  5700   671  208  314.9     36   0.22    1.2%    5.5%  net.startrek
 24  3400   402  124  412.2     36   0.48    0.7%    3.3%  net.religion
 25  2500   289   90  161.2     36   0.25    0.5%    2.4%  net.tv.soaps
 26  9500  1120  337  507.3     35   0.21    2.1%    9.2%  net.movies
 27  3800   453  127  300.5     33   0.31    0.8%    3.7%  net.ham-radio
 28  5500   648  170  303.1     30   0.22    1.2%    5.3%  net.video
 29  7500   879  218  490.0     29   0.26    1.6%    7.2%  net.followup
 30  1500   181   44   71.4     29   0.19    0.3%    1.5%  net.music.makers
 31  8500   995  241  379.2     28   0.17    1.8%    8.1%  net.cooks
 32  5700   672  164  212.4     28   0.15    1.2%    5.5%  net.games.hack
 33  4600   537  132  224.8     28   0.19    1.0%    4.4%  mod.protocols.tcp-i
 34  3300   389   92  198.6     28   0.24    0.7%    3.2%  net.music.gdead
 35  4800   565  131  321.0     27   0.26    1.0%    4.6%  net.motss
 36  2900   341   78  111.9     27   0.15    0.6%    2.8%  net.test
 37 11000  1259  288  448.7     26   0.16    2.3%   10.3%  net.audio
 38  4500   534  121  172.4     26   0.15    1.0%    4.4%  net.consumers.house
 39  5800   677  150  239.8     25   0.16    1.3%    5.5%  net.bicycle
 40  4100   481  102  274.2     25   0.26    0.9%    3.9%  net.games.frp

BOTTOM 10 NEWSGROUPS IN ORDER BY POPULARITY
       +-- Estimated total number of people who read the group, worldwide.
       |     +-- Actual number of readers in sampled population
       |     |     +-- Recent traffic, in messages per month. 
       |     |     |     +-- Recent traffic, in kilobytes per month.
       |     |     |     |       +-- Participation ratio: msgs/month/Krdrs
       |     |     |     |       |     +-- Cost ratio: $US/month/reader
       |     |     |     |       |     |      +-- Rating: % of all users who
       |     |     |     |       |     |      |   read this group.
       |     |     |     |       |     |      |       +-- Share: % newsreaders
       |     |     |     |       |     |      |       |   who read this group.
       V     V     V     V       V     V      V       V
208  2300   273  100  623.2     43   1.10    0.5%    2.2%  mod.comp-soc
209  2300   268   15   25.2      6   0.04    0.5%    2.2%  net.rec.bridge
210  2200   264    7    7.8      3   0.01    0.5%    2.2%  net.rec.skydive
211  2200   262   24   41.7     11   0.07    0.5%    2.1%  net.rec.drugs
212  2100   251  140  370.1     66   0.69    0.5%    2.1%  net.politics.theory
213  2100   248    1    4.3      0   0.01    0.5%    2.0%  net.sport.hockey
214  2000   233    5    5.7      2   0.01    0.4%    1.9%  net.micro.ti
215  1600   192   12   29.9      8   0.07    0.4%    1.6%  mod.computers.massc
216  1500   181   44   71.4     29   0.19    0.3%    1.5%  net.music.makers
217  1500   177    1    7.8      0   0.02    0.3%    1.4%  net.nlang.greek

Valid data received from these sites:

3comvax 3d.dec.com 8702.dec.com aaec able.dec.com acetes adelie adobe
aero aero2 akgua akgub akguc akgud akov68.dec.com alberta alv
amber.dec.com amdahl amdcad amdimage ames anasaz ant.dec.com aragorn
argus arran.tcom.stc.co.uk arthur ascvax astrovax atari athena aurora
axis bach.dec.com bartok.dec.com basser bcm5000 bdmrrr bek-mc bene beno
beorn.dec.com beowulf birtch bnl brand brspyr1 btnix bubba
bute.tcom.stc.co.uk cad.dec.com cadomin cae780 caip.rutgers.edu calgary
carmel cascade casto.dec.com castor.dec.com cavell cbosgd ccvaxa
celica.dec.com cgl.ucsf.edu chalmers cheviot chronon ci-dandelion circe
cit-vax clio clt.dec.com cod cogito.dec.com cogsci.berkeley.edu
columbia comet.dec.com comet2.dec.com cooper cortex cory.berkeley.edu
cp1 cuae2 curium.dec.com cuuxb cvl cxsea cybvax0 dalcs darth davinci
dcl-csvax decuac decwrl delni.dec.com desint diablo dicome dione dmcnh
down dregs.dec.com drexel drillsys dssdev.dec.com edison elsie
elwood.dec.com enmasse entropy eros euclid.dec.com exodus.dec.com fai
felix felix.dec.com fgvaxu.dec.com foxvax5 fremen.dec.com fritz frog
frog.nosc.mil ganash garfield.columbia.edu garfield.mun gatech
gemvax.dec.com genrad gitpyr glacier glimmer gold.dec.com gould9
gramps.dec.com greg gsc gt-stratus gvadg1.dec.com hammer hamstr.dec.com
handel hao harvard hercules ho95e hocad hscfvax hudson.dec.com
hydra.dec.com ia-sun2 iapetus ic ichaya icom ihu1n im4u imagen imt3b2
imt3b2 infinet infopro ink.dec.com iosg.dec.com ipso iscuva ishtar
jasper jimi jon.dec.com jplgodo kepler killer kirk.dec.com kodak kosman
kpe labrea lando.dec.com ll-vlsi lmi-ang lmi-angel logic.dec.com
louie.dec.com luke lymph.dec.com macbeth masscomp mcc-pp mcgill-
mck-csc meccts medea mentor.dec.com micomvax midacs miles.dec.com mips
mirror mit-eddie mit-trillian mnetor mntgfx mordred mosaic.dec.com mss
msudoc mtblue.dec.com mtgzy mtgzz mulga munnari myrias navajo nbires
ncoast ncr-sd ncrcae ncsuvx nike njitcccc noao nonode.dec.com novavax
nsc nttlab nymgr.dec.com oblio oblio.dec.com ocean oddjob ohgua ohgub
ohguc onecom opus orion orstcs osiris otto panda par5.dec.com parcvax
pbsvax.dec.com pegasus percival phdvax.dec.com philabs phoenix phri
phuxa phuxc pitt pixar pldvax.dec.com plooba plus5 pneuma.dec.com pogo
popeye poseidon potomac princeton prism psivax pucc-h pucc-i pucc-j
pucc-k pyramid qnda01 quad1 quark.dec.com ra rainbo.dec.com
rangly.dec.com raster rayssd reed renko.dec.com ritcv rivest.dec.com
rlvd rochester roxie.dec.com rti-sel saber sandia saturn sauron scicom
sdcc12 sdcc13 sdcc3 sdcc6 sdcc7 sdcsvax se-sd seismo sems shasta
shogun.dec.com sicsten sigma sjuvax sneaky sneezy snickr.dec.com soma
spastic sphinx spock star.dec.com stat-l stride stsci styx su-isl suadb
talcott tallis.dec.com teddy tekig5 teklds tesla tflop tilt titan titn
tkov58.dec.com tonto.dec.com topaz.rutgers.edu trco01.dec.com
troll.dec.com tuck tucos tulane turtlevax tut twitch tymix ucsfcgl
ugdist uiucuxa uiucuxc uiucuxe uiucuxf ukma ulowell ultra.dec.com
umd-cs umd-ua uncle.dec.com unirot unmvax usc-obe usc-oberon ut-sally
utah-gr utcs vianet vino.dec.com vlnvax.dec.com voder vu-vlsi vulcan
walldata wang7 wanginst warlok.dec.com watarts watcal watcgl watdaisy
watdcsu watdragon wateng water watlion watmath watmum watnot watopt
watpix watrose watvlsi weitek well wisdom yale yetti yogi.dec.com zeus

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
		EXPLANATION OF THE MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICS

Survey data is taken by having one person at each site run a program called
"arbitron", which looks at the news or notes files and determines the
newsgroups that the user has read within a recent interval. To "read" a
newsgroup means to have been presented with the opportunity to look at at
least one message in it. Going through a newsgroup with the "n" key counts
as reading it. For a news site, "user X reads group Y" means that user X's
.newsrc file has marked at least one unexpired message in Y. If there is no
traffic in a newsgroup for the measurement period, then the survey will show
that nobody reads the group. For a notes site, "user X reads group Y" means
that user X has been in the notesfile with the sequencer in the last 14 days.
The "14 days" interval for notesfiles corresponds to "unexpired" for news.

The "arbitron" program is periodically posted to net.sources, or is available
from me (decwrl!reid). The notesfiles version of the program should be
available through standard notesfiles software distribution channels as well.

SITES SURVEYED IN THIS SAMPLE

"This Sample" means the set of sites that have sent in an arbitron report
within the past "Readership measurement interval" days. In every case the
most recent report from each site is used. At the moment, some of the
readership reports are several months old. In future postings those reports
will have expired and will not be included.

One might argue that the sample is self-selected, like the famous Literary
Digest Dewey-Truman election poll sample. It does in fact have a certain
self-selection factor in it, because we only get data from sites at which
someone participates in the survey. However, we do not require the
participation of every user at a site, only one user. The survey program
returns data for every user on the system on which it was run. Since there
are an average of 40 people per site reading news, there is a certain amount
of randomness introduced that way. Of course, the sample is biased in favor
of large sites (they are more likely to have a user willing to run the survey
program) and software-development-oriented sites (more likely to have a user
*able* to run the survey program). I intend to post, reasonably soon, some
breakdowns of statistics about the sites that have responded.

NETWORK SIZE

I determine the network size by looking at the set of sites that are
mentioned in the Path lines of news articles arriving at decwrl. This number
is consistently higher than the number of sites that posted a message (as
measured and posted from Seismo) because it includes passive sites that are
on the paths between posting sites and decwrl. Each month I store the names
of the hosts that are named that month, and for this report I used the past
4 months worth of data.

There are 3646 different sites in the Path lines of articles that
arrived at decwrl in the last 4 months. There are 5548 different sites in
the mod.map data, but mod.map includes every site that participates in uucp;
there is a considerable number of machines that exchange uucp mail but do not
get USENET. Of those 3646 sites, 74 (2%) are DEC E-net hosts not part of
uucp. The DEC E-net participation in USENET complicates the statistics,
because we have 100% data for readership of USENET inside the DEC-Enet,
which makes extrapolating less accurate. 

Despite these various difficulties, I believe that 3700 is the best
estimate for the size of USENET. Because it is actually a measurement of the
number of sites that have posted a message or that are on the path to a site
that has posted a message, it will be slightly smaller than the number of
sites that actually read netnews. Any site that believes it is not being
counted can just ensure that it posts at least one message a year, so that
it will be counted.


NUMBER OF USERS

The number of users at each site is determined in a site-specific fashion.
Sometimes it is done by counting the number of user accounts that have
shells and login directories. Sometimes it is done by counting the number of
people who have logged in to the machine in some interval. Sometimes other
techniques are used. This number is probably not very accurate--certainly
not more accurate than to within a factor of two.

ESTIMATED TOTAL NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO READ THIS GROUP, WORLDWIDE

There are two sources of error in this number. The number is computed by
multiplying the number of people in the sample who actually read the group by
the ratio of estimated network size to sample size. The estimated total can
therefore be biased by errors in the network size estimate (see above) and
also by errors in the determination of whether or not someone reads a group.
Assuming that "reading a group" is roughly the same as "thumbing through a
magazine", in that you don't necessarily have to read anything, but you have
to browse through it and see what is there, then the measurement error will
come primarily from inability to locate .newsrc files, which can either be
protected or moved out of root directories. I sampled 13 machines recently
and found only 2 users out of 715 who were actually news readers but whose
.newsrc file was not in their root directory. From this I have concluded that
the problem is not worth worrying about, since the error in network size
estimation will totally dominate it.

MESSAGES PER MONTH AND KILOBYTES PER MONTH

Traffic is measured at decwrl. Any message that has arrived at decwrl within
the last "Traffic measurement interval" days is counted, regardless of when
it was posted. Monthly rates are computed by taking the total traffic,
dividing by the number of days in the traffic measurement interval, and
multiplying by 30. Decwrl runs 2.10.3 news, which does not store the
"Date-Received", "Relay-version" or "Posting-version" header lines; the
amount of space occupied at your site might be higher, and the number of
bytes transmitted between machines is probably higher. By definition this
number is correct, because it is an exact measurement, but it may differ from
the traffic at your site by as much as 15% due to timing differences and news
version differences. Timing differences will be random, but will average out
in the long run. News version differences will cause a systematic error that
is uniform across all newsgroups, and which therefore does not affect ratios.

If a message is crossposted to several groups simultaneously, it is charged
only to the first-named group in the list.


PARTICIPATION RATIO: MESSAGES per MONTH per 1000 READERS

This number is exactly what it says: the number of messages per month in
that newsgroup, divided by the number of 1000 readers. It is an indication
of how involved the readers of the group are in the traffic, of whether they
are mostly listeners or mostly talkers. Its accuracy is limited by the
accuracy of its two components. The messages per month  figure is exact; the
reader count is only as accurate as the network size estimate, which is in
worst case accurate to 40%. Therefore you should treat this number as having
an error margin of plus or minus 40%. However, ratios between participation
ratios for different newsgroups are quite accurate, since the network-size
component divides out.

COST RATIO: DOLLARS PER MONTH PER READER

The most controversial field in the survey report is the "$US per month per
reader". It is the estimated number of dollars that are being spent on
behalf of each reader, worldwide, on telephone costs to transmit this
newsgroup. The cost ratio does not include the cost of disk storage to store
the news or of computer time to process it; both of those are assumed to be
free.

The cost ratio is computed as follows:

$US/month/reader = ($USPerMonthPerSite * numberOfSites) / numberOfReaders
$USPerMonthPersite = KBytesTrafficPerMonth * $USPerKByte
$USPerKByte = ($USperMinute / KBytesPerMinute) * (1 - CompressionFactor)
$USperMinute = 0.10	[ten cents per minute avg phone cost]
KBytesPerMinute = 60 * BytesPerSecond / 1000
BytesPerSecond = 100	[average transfer rate over 1200-baud line]
CompressionFactor = 0.4 [40% compression is typical for netnews]

Combining all these gives

$USPerMonthPersite =
    KBytesTrafficPerMonth * (0.10 / 6) * (1 - 0.4)
  = KBytesTrafficPerMonth / 100

Therefore:

$US/month/reader =
    (KBytesTrafficPerMonth * numberOfSites) / (100 * numberOfReaders)

The accuracy of this number is in fact better than the accuracy of the
participation ratio, because the source of error--the network size
estimate--is present both in the numerator and the denominator, and therefore
cancels out. The primary source of bias in this number comes from the bias in
the "estimated number of readers, worldwide", which is described above. Treat
this value as being accurate to within about 25%.

SITE PARTICIPATION

I would like to receive data from every site on USENET. The arbitron program
works on news 2.9, and 2.10.[1-3]; Rich Salz has a version that works on
some versions of notesfiles. 


Brian Reid
DEC Western Research Laboratory, Palo Alto CA
reid@decwrl.DEC.COM
{ihnp4,allegra,decvax,ucbvax,sun,glacier}!decwrl!reid