[mod.newslists] USENET READERSHIP SUMMARY REPORT FOR OCT 86

reid@decwrl.UUCP (Brian Reid) (11/01/86)

USENET READERSHIP SUMMARY REPORT for Oct 86

This is a monthly posting from the Network Measurement Project at the DEC
Western Research Laboratory in Palo Alto, California. 

This survey is based on a sample of data taken from various USENET sites.
At the end of this message there is a short explanation of the measurement
techniques and the meaning of the various statistics.

The complete set of readership data (of which this is a summary) is posted
in mod.newslists

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
New this month: a version of arbitron that copes properly with all of the
new newsgroups, and also a new column of information in the report. We now
report the "propagation" of a newsgroup, which is how many sites get that
group at all.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
			Brian Reid


OVERALL SUMMARY:
                             This            Estimated
                            Sample         for entire net
Sites:                      393                 4800
Fraction reporting:        8.19%                 100%
Users with accounts:      53873               658000
Netreaders:               12377               151000

Average readers per site:                          31
Percent of users who are netreaders:            22.97%
Average traffic per day (megabytes):            1.596
Average traffic per day (messages):               663
Traffic measurement interval:    last              21 days
Readership measurement interval: last              75 days

TOP 40 NEWSGROUPS IN ORDER BY POPULARITY
       +-- Estimated total number of people who read the group, worldwide.
       |     +-- Actual number of readers in sampled population
       |     |     +-- Propagation: how many sites receive this group at all
       |     |     |      +-- Recent traffic (messages per month)
       |     |     |      |     +-- Recent traffic (kilobytes per month)
       |     |     |      |     |      +-- Participation ratio
       |     |     |      |     |      |    +-- Cost ratio: $US/month/reader
       |     |     |      |     |      |    |       +-- Share: % of newsreader
       |     |     |      |     |      |    |       |   who read this group.
       V     V     V      V     V      V    V       V
  1 28000  2540   74%    17   41.3     0   0.01   20.5%  net.general
  2 25000  2307   64%   505  744.4    20   0.12   18.6%  net.jokes
  3 25000  2303   74%   114 1218.5     4   0.19   18.6%  net.sources
  4 24000  2186   58%     2    6.1     0   0.00   17.7%  mod.announce
  5 20000  1783   66%    24  807.7     1   0.16   14.4%  mod.sources
  6 19000  1762   67%    64  201.2     3   0.04   14.2%  net.jobs
  7 16000  1469   72%   245  380.1    15   0.09   11.9%  net.unix
  8 15000  1407   65%   108  291.9     7   0.08   11.4%  net.ai
  9 15000  1361   73%   357  671.1    23   0.18   11.0%  net.unix-wizards
 10 14000  1303   62%     2    2.0     0   0.00   10.5%  net.sources.games
 11 14000  1268   63%   341  523.1    24   0.15   10.2%  net.micro.mac
 12 14000  1260   69%   622 2342.3    44   0.66   10.2%  net.micro.pc
 13 14000  1253   67%   132  228.3     9   0.06   10.1%  net.micro
 14 14000  1249   66%    65  101.2     4   0.03   10.1%  net.graphics
 15 14000  1232   63%   125  362.5     8   0.10   10.0%  net.arch
 16 14000  1230   72%    30   64.2     2   0.02    9.9%  net.sources.bugs
 17 13000  1224   64%    44   44.2     3   0.01    9.9%  net.wanted
 18 13000  1154   71%    47   64.6     3   0.02    9.3%  net.sources.d
 19 13000  1152   65%     5   26.8     0   0.01    9.3%  mod.conferences
 20 13000  1148   66%   198  322.9    15   0.10    9.3%  net.lang.c
 21 13000  1139   61%   364  615.2    28   0.19    9.2%  net.movies
 22 12000  1066   72%    64  175.5     5   0.06    8.6%  net.news.group
 23 12000  1052   59%   165  281.4    13   0.09    8.5%  net.audio
 24 11000  1043   66%    54   78.6     4   0.03    8.4%  net.news
 25 11000  1022   67%   122  122.0    11   0.04    8.3%  net.wanted.sources
 26 11000  1017   53%    41   55.1     3   0.02    8.2%  net.consumers
 27 11000  1001   53%     7   20.1     0   0.01    8.1%  net.announce.arpa-int
 28 11000   975   46%     7   18.0     0   0.01    7.9%  mod.newprod
 29 10000   925   58%    35  565.9     3   0.22    7.5%  net.sources.mac
 30 10000   920   45%     2   18.3     0   0.01    7.4%  mod.os.unix
 31 10000   915   56%    68   87.2     6   0.03    7.4%  net.books
 32  9900   905   63%   132  218.8    13   0.09    7.3%  net.emacs
 33  9900   900   58%    71  152.0     7   0.06    7.3%  net.misc
 34  9900   899   57%    95  134.3     9   0.05    7.3%  net.lang
 35  9800   895   62%    25   28.6     2   0.01    7.2%  net.lan
 36  9800   892   55%   150  181.3    15   0.07    7.2%  net.cooks
 37  9800   887   54%   135  486.0    13   0.19    7.2%  mod.ai
 38  9700   883   54%    40   69.9     4   0.03    7.1%  net.invest
 39  9600   876   57%    28   41.4     2   0.02    7.1%  net.micro.68k
 40  9500   861   55%     5    6.0     0   0.00    7.0%  net.research

TOP 40 NEWSGROUPS IN ORDER BY PER-READER COST
       +-- Estimated total number of people who read the group, worldwide.
       |     +-- Actual number of readers in sampled population
       |     |     +-- Propagation: how many sites receive this group at all
       |     |     |      +-- Recent traffic (messages per month)
       |     |     |      |     +-- Recent traffic (kilobytes per month)
       |     |     |      |     |      +-- Participation ratio
       |     |     |      |     |      |    +-- Cost ratio: $US/month/reader
       |     |     |      |     |      |    |       +-- Share: % of newsreader
       |     |     |      |     |      |    |       |   who read this group.
       V     V     V      V     V      V    V       V
  1    44     4    1%    11   31.7   259   2.80    0.0%  talk.religion.christi
  2  1800   160   21%   450 1540.6   250   3.40    1.3%  talk.religion.misc
  3  1600   144   21%   317 1030.8   198   2.50    1.2%  talk.politics.misc
  4    55     5    0%     7    8.5   129   0.61    0.0%  rec.arts.movies
  5  1100   103   12%   137  354.2   124   1.30    0.8%  misc.legal
  6  5100   464   31%   620 1497.8   121   1.20    3.7%  soc.singles
  7    66     6    0%     7    9.2   108   0.55    0.0%  rec.arts.sf-lovers
  8   850    77    9%    90  155.6   105   0.72    0.6%  sci.lang
  9    55     5    0%     5    6.3   103   0.45    0.0%  rec.aviation
 10  1300   116   14%   128  225.9    98   0.68    0.9%  sci.med
 11   620    56    8%    51   29.4    82   0.19    0.5%  misc.test
 12  6700   608   44%   540 1994.2    80   1.20    4.9%  net.micro.atari16
 13  1800   163   16%   135  623.8    75   1.40    1.3%  soc.culture.indian
 14  1800   160   16%   135  316.4    75   0.69    1.3%  misc.misc
 15  4100   369   29%   301  441.8    73   0.42    3.0%  talk.bizarre
 16  4000   365   37%   295  534.1    73   0.52    2.9%  net.sport.football
 17  1100   103   12%    74  124.6    67   0.45    0.8%  misc.kids
 18  1400   131   11%    92  185.1    66   0.52    1.1%  sci.math
 19  4000   367   36%   260  417.2    65   0.41    3.0%  net.sport.baseball
 20    66     6    0%     4    4.5    64   0.27    0.0%  rec.pets
 21  8900   809   59%   534  862.3    60   0.38    6.5%  net.sf-lovers
 22  5000   454   40%   294  584.6    58   0.46    3.7%  net.comics
 23  9200   834   56%   521 2080.3    56   0.89    6.7%  net.micro.amiga
 24  1300   114   18%    72  319.4    56   0.97    0.9%  talk.philosophy.misc
 25  2600   237   25%   138  282.6    53   0.43    1.9%  mod.music.gaffa
 26  1600   148   18%    84  203.1    52   0.50    1.2%  talk.abortion
 27  2000   178   15%    98   92.2    49   0.18    1.4%  misc.wanted
 28    88     8    0%     4   16.1    48   0.72    0.1%  rec.bicycles
 29  9300   848   54%   428  650.7    46   0.27    6.9%  net.auto
 30  1300   114   12%    60  152.8    46   0.46    0.9%  sci.physics
 31  8900   809   54%   404  712.2    45   0.31    6.5%  net.music
 32 14000  1260   69%   622 2342.3    44   0.66   10.2%  net.micro.pc
 33  2100   193   19%    91  230.9    43   0.43    1.6%  soc.motss
 34  1500   141   14%    64  134.4    42   0.35    1.1%  sci.astro
 35  1400   125   16%    60   74.4    42   0.21    1.0%  soc.culture.celtic
 36  6500   589   50%   267  452.9    41   0.27    4.8%  net.startrek
 37  6300   576   48%   249  375.2    39   0.23    4.7%  net.micro.apple
 38  5300   482   41%   182  299.6    34   0.22    3.9%  net.pets
 39  5800   529   43%   191  354.3    33   0.24    4.3%  net.aviation
 40  4800   433   37%   162  252.5    33   0.21    3.5%  net.ham-radio

TOP 40 NEWSGROUPS IN ORDER BY MESSAGES PER READER
       +-- Estimated total number of people who read the group, worldwide.
       |     +-- Actual number of readers in sampled population
       |     |     +-- Propagation: how many sites receive this group at all
       |     |     |      +-- Recent traffic (messages per month)
       |     |     |      |     +-- Recent traffic (kilobytes per month)
       |     |     |      |     |      +-- Participation ratio
       |     |     |      |     |      |    +-- Cost ratio: $US/month/reader
       |     |     |      |     |      |    |       +-- Share: % of newsreader
       |     |     |      |     |      |    |       |   who read this group.
       V     V     V      V     V      V    V       V
  1 14000  1260   69%   622 2342.3    44   0.66   10.2%  net.micro.pc
  2  9200   834   56%   521 2080.3    56   0.89    6.7%  net.micro.amiga
  3  6700   608   44%   540 1994.2    80   1.20    4.9%  net.micro.atari16
  4  1800   160   21%   450 1540.6   250   3.40    1.3%  talk.religion.misc
  5  5100   464   31%   620 1497.8   121   1.20    3.7%  soc.singles
  6 25000  2303   74%   114 1218.5     4   0.19   18.6%  net.sources
  7  1600   144   21%   317 1030.8   198   2.50    1.2%  talk.politics.misc
  8  8900   809   59%   534  862.3    60   0.38    6.5%  net.sf-lovers
  9 20000  1783   66%    24  807.7     1   0.16   14.4%  mod.sources
 10 25000  2307   64%   505  744.4    20   0.12   18.6%  net.jokes
 11  7000   640   45%    14  721.2     2   0.40    5.2%  mod.mac.sources
 12  8900   809   54%   404  712.2    45   0.31    6.5%  net.music
 13 15000  1361   73%   357  671.1    23   0.18   11.0%  net.unix-wizards
 14  9300   848   54%   428  650.7    46   0.27    6.9%  net.auto
 15  1800   163   16%   135  623.8    75   1.40    1.3%  soc.culture.indian
 16 13000  1139   61%   364  615.2    28   0.19    9.2%  net.movies
 17  5000   454   40%   294  584.6    58   0.46    3.7%  net.comics
 18 10000   925   58%    35  565.9     3   0.22    7.5%  net.sources.mac
 19  4000   365   37%   295  534.1    73   0.52    2.9%  net.sport.football
 20 14000  1268   63%   341  523.1    24   0.15   10.2%  net.micro.mac
 21  7500   686   48%    20  490.9     2   0.26    5.5%  mod.mac
 22  9800   887   54%   135  486.0    13   0.19    7.2%  mod.ai
 23  6500   589   50%   267  452.9    41   0.27    4.8%  net.startrek
 24  4100   369   29%   301  441.8    73   0.42    3.0%  talk.bizarre
 25  4000   367   36%   260  417.2    65   0.41    3.0%  net.sport.baseball
 26 16000  1469   72%   245  380.1    15   0.09   11.9%  net.unix
 27  6300   576   48%   249  375.2    39   0.23    4.7%  net.micro.apple
 28 14000  1232   63%   125  362.5     8   0.10   10.0%  net.arch
 29  5800   529   43%   191  354.3    33   0.24    4.3%  net.aviation
 30  1100   103   12%   137  354.2   124   1.30    0.8%  misc.legal
 31  7200   657   56%    91  333.5    12   0.18    5.3%  mod.std.unix
 32  3300   299   33%    20  326.6     6   0.39    2.4%  mod.politics.arms-d
 33 13000  1148   66%   198  322.9    15   0.10    9.3%  net.lang.c
 34  1300   114   18%    72  319.4    56   0.97    0.9%  talk.philosophy.misc
 35  1800   160   16%   135  316.4    75   0.69    1.3%  misc.misc
 36  5300   482   41%   182  299.6    34   0.22    3.9%  net.pets
 37  4700   431   42%   134  299.0    28   0.25    3.5%  net.games.frp
 38  8900   808   52%   205  297.9    23   0.13    6.5%  mod.computers.vax
 39  9300   845   64%    14  295.9     1   0.13    6.8%  mod.newslists
 40 15000  1407   65%   108  291.9     7   0.08   11.4%  net.ai

BOTTOM 10 NEWSGROUPS IN ORDER BY POPULARITY
       +-- Estimated total number of people who read the group, worldwide.
       |     +-- Actual number of readers in sampled population
       |     |     +-- Propagation: how many sites receive this group at all
       |     |     |      +-- Recent traffic (messages per month)
       |     |     |      |     +-- Recent traffic (kilobytes per month)
       |     |     |      |     |      +-- Participation ratio
       |     |     |      |     |      |    +-- Cost ratio: $US/month/reader
       |     |     |      |     |      |    |       +-- Share: % of newsreader
       |     |     |      |     |      |    |       |   who read this group.
       V     V     V      V     V      V    V       V
244   550    50    2%     2    1.3     5   0.01    0.4%  news.misc
245   440    40    6%     8   10.0    19   0.09    0.3%  sci.math.stat
246   420    38    5%     8    9.2    20   0.09    0.3%  sci.bio
247   400    36    2%     1    0.6     3   0.01    0.3%  rec.misc
248    88     8    0%     4   16.1    48   0.72    0.1%  rec.bicycles
249    66     6    0%     7    9.2   108   0.55    0.0%  rec.arts.sf-lovers
250    66     6    0%     4    4.5    64   0.27    0.0%  rec.pets
251    55     5    0%     7    8.5   129   0.61    0.0%  rec.arts.movies
252    55     5    0%     5    6.3   103   0.45    0.0%  rec.aviation
253    44     4    1%    11   31.7   259   2.80    0.0%  talk.religion.christi

Valid data received from these sites:

3comvax 3d.dec.com a60 aaec abnji ace.dec.com acetes adelie aero aero2
aiag.dec.com akgua akgub akguc akgud akov68.dec.com alberta alliant alv
amdahl amdcad ames argus arthur arthur.cs.purdue.edu ascvax asd.dec.com
astrovax atari athena aurora author.dec.com axis basser bcm5000
bemis.dec.com bene beno.css.gov bigbang bms-at bnl brand brspyr1 btnix
bu-cs bubba bucsb.bu.edu bucsd cadomin cae780 caip.rutgers.edu calay
calgary carmel cascade casee.dec.com castor.dec.com cavell cbosgd
ccvaxa celica.dec.com cgfsv1.dec.com cgl.ucsf.edu chalmers charlie
cheviot chinet ci-dandelion circe cisunx cit-vax clio clt.dec.com
cognos comet.dec.com concurrent.co.uk cookie.dec.com cooper cp1 cpro
cpsc53 cpw.columbia.edu crcge1 crin crvax1.dec.com cs.nott.ac.uk csadfa
csc02.dec.com csustan cuae2 curium.dec.com cuuxb cvl cwruecmp cxsea
darth dayton dciem dcl-csvax decuac decwet.dec.com decwrl desint
diamond.bbn.com dicome dievms.dec.com dinadan dione dlb dmcnh
dolphn.dec.com doshita down dregs.dec.com drillsys dukempd dycom
ector.cs.purdue.edu edison elbereth.rutgers.edu elroy elsie
elwood.dec.com ems endor eros eta ethos exodus.dec.com fai felix
fortune foxvax5 fritz ganash garfield gargoyle gatech genrad glacier
godot godzla.dec.com gould9 gouldsd grc97 grebyn gt-stratus h-sc4
h.cc.purdue.edu hao hc.dspo.gov hdsvx1 hercules hjuxa hpldora hscfvax
hutch i.cc.purdue.edu iapetus ihu1n ileaf im4u ima imagen imt3b2
infinet infopro iosg.dec.com ipso.oz iscuva isis isl istg.dec.com
ittvax j.cc.purdue.edu jasper jaws.dec.com jimi jon.dec.com jplgodo
k.cc.purdue.edu kaoa01.dec.com kirk.dec.com kodak kosman kpe
l.cc.purdue.edu labrea lando.dec.com lll-crg lll-lcc ludwig.dec.com
luke macbeth maccunix majestix masscomp maynard mcc-pp mcgill-vision
mck-csc me-ncr meccts medusa.dec.com midacs mips mirror mit-eddie
mit-trillian mks mntgfx moncol mordred mordred.cs.purdue.edu
mosaic.dec.com mss msudoc mtgzy mtgzz munsell myrias naakka
nandi.dec.com navajo nbires ncoast ncr-sd ncrcae nesterc nike noao
nogov.dec.com nonode.dec.com novavax nsc nssg.dec.com nttlab oblio
oblio.dec.com ocean oddjob ohgua ohgub ohguc oktext onecom opus orion
osiris panda pbhya penet percival phri phuxa phuxc pipa.dec.com pitt
pixar plus5 pogo polaris potomac princeton psivax ptsfa ptsfb ptsfc
ptsfd qantel qnda01 quad1 quoin.dec.com ra rainbo.dec.com
rangly.dec.com raster rayssd rdlvax reality1 regal.dec.com rhea.dec.com
rochester rocky rosevax rtech rti-sel saber samira sandia sandoz saturn
sauron scicom sdcsvax se-sd seismo shasta sicsten sigma soma spar
sphinx sphinx.dec.com sri-spam ssc-vax ssdevo.dec.com star.dec.com
strata.dec.com stride strshp.dec.com styx su-isl sunybcs teddy teklds
telesoft temvax termin tflop tilt tipple.dec.com tkov58.dec.com
tle.dec.com topaz.rutgers.edu trwhal tuck tucos turtlevax tut tutctl
tymix ucla-cs uiucuxa uiucuxc uiucuxe uiucuxf ujocs ukma umd-ua
umd5.umd.edu umn-cs unirot uqcspe.oz usc-oberon usceast ut-sally
utah-cs utah-gr utcs utcsri uwmacc vianet video.dec.com viking.dec.com
vilya vino.dec.com voder vogon.dec.com vu-vlsi vulcan walldata wang7
wanginst watale watarts watcal watcgl watdaisy watdcsu watdragon wateng
water watlion watmath watmum watnot watopt watpix watrose watvlsi well
wjh12 wolf wookie.dec.com wuphys xios yale yarra yetti yippee.dec.com
zeus zhora.dec.com

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
		EXPLANATION OF THE MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICS

Survey data is taken by having one person at each site run a program called
"arbitron", which looks at the news or notes files and determines the
newsgroups that the user has read within a recent interval. To "read" a
newsgroup means to have been presented with the opportunity to look at at
least one message in it. Going through a newsgroup with the "n" key counts
as reading it. For a news site, "user X reads group Y" means that user X's
.newsrc file has marked at least one unexpired message in Y. If there is no
traffic in a newsgroup for the measurement period, then the survey will show
that nobody reads the group. For a notes site, "user X reads group Y" means
that user X has been in the notesfile with the sequencer in the last 14 days.
The "14 days" interval for notesfiles corresponds to "unexpired" for news.

The "arbitron" program is periodically posted to net.sources, or is available
from me (decwrl!reid). The notesfiles version of the program should be
available through standard notesfiles software distribution channels as well.

SITES SURVEYED IN THIS SAMPLE

"This Sample" means the set of sites that have sent in an arbitron report
within the past "Readership measurement interval" days. In every case the
most recent report from each site is used. At the moment, some of the
readership reports are several months old. In future postings those reports
will have expired and will not be included.

One might argue that the sample is self-selected, like the famous Literary
Digest Dewey-Truman election poll sample. It does in fact have a certain
self-selection factor in it, because we only get data from sites at which
someone participates in the survey. However, we do not require the
participation of every user at a site, only one user. The survey program
returns data for every user on the system on which it was run. Since there
are an average of 30 people per site reading news, there is a certain amount
of randomness introduced that way. Of course, the sample is biased in favor
of large sites (they are more likely to have a user willing to run the survey
program) and software-development-oriented sites (more likely to have a user
*able* to run the survey program). I intend to post, reasonably soon, some
breakdowns of statistics about the sites that have responded.

NETWORK SIZE

I determine the network size by looking at the set of sites that are
mentioned in the Path lines of news articles arriving at decwrl. This number
is consistently higher than the number of sites that posted a message (as
measured and posted from Seismo) because it includes passive sites that are
on the paths between posting sites and decwrl. Each month I store the names
of the hosts that are named that month, and for this report I used the past
7 months worth of data.

There are 4713 different sites in the Path lines of articles that
arrived at decwrl in the last 7 months. There are 6173 different sites in
the mod.map data, but mod.map includes every site that participates in uucp;
there is a considerable number of machines that exchange uucp mail but do not
get USENET. Of those 4713 sites, 60 (1%) are DEC E-net hosts not part of
uucp, and which therefore are not included in the 6173 figure.

Despite these various difficulties, I believe that 4800 is the best
estimate for the size of USENET. Because it is actually a measurement of the
number of sites that have posted a message or that are on the path to a site
that has posted a message, it will be slightly smaller than the number of
sites that actually read netnews. Any site that believes it is not being
counted can just ensure that it posts at least one message a year, so that
it will be counted.


NUMBER OF USERS

The number of users at each site is determined in a site-specific fashion.
Sometimes it is done by counting the number of user accounts that have
shells and login directories. Sometimes it is done by counting the number of
people who have logged in to the machine in some interval. Sometimes other
techniques are used. This number is probably not very accurate--certainly
not more accurate than to within a factor of two.


ESTIMATED TOTAL NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO READ THIS GROUP, WORLDWIDE

There are two sources of error in this number. The number is computed by
multiplying the number of people in the sample who actually read the group by
the ratio of estimated network size to sample size. The estimated total can
therefore be biased by errors in the network size estimate (see above) and
also by errors in the determination of whether or not someone reads a group.
Assuming that "reading a group" is roughly the same as "thumbing through a
magazine", in that you don't necessarily have to read anything, but you have
to browse through it and see what is there, then the measurement error will
come primarily from inability to locate .newsrc files, which can either be
protected or moved out of root directories. There is no way of measuring the
effect on the measurements from unlocated .newsrc files, but it is not likely
to be more than a few percent of the total news readers.


MESSAGES PER MONTH AND KILOBYTES PER MONTH

Traffic is measured at decwrl, in Palo Alto, California. Any message that has
arrived at decwrl within the last "Traffic measurement interval" days is
counted, regardless of when it was posted. Monthly rates are computed by
taking the total traffic, dividing by the number of days in the traffic
measurement interval, and multiplying by 30. Decwrl runs 2.10.3 news, which
does not store the "Date-Received", "Relay-version" or "Posting-version"
header lines; the amount of space occupied at your site might be higher, and
the number of bytes transmitted between machines is probably higher. By
definition this number is correct, because it is an exact measurement, but it
may differ from the traffic at your site by as much as 15% due to timing
differences and news version differences. Timing differences will be random,
but will average out in the long run. News version differences will cause a
systematic error that is additively uniform across all newsgroups, and which
therefore does not significantly affect ratios.

If a message is crossposted to several groups simultaneously, it is charged
only to the first-named group in the list.


PARTICIPATION RATIO: MESSAGES per MONTH per 1000 READERS

This number is exactly what it says: the number of messages per month in
that newsgroup, divided by the number of 1000 readers. It is an indication
of how involved the readers of the group are in the traffic, of whether they
are mostly listeners or mostly talkers. Its accuracy is limited by the
accuracy of its two components. The messages per month  figure is exact; the
reader count is only as accurate as the network size estimate, which is in
worst case accurate to 40%. Therefore you should treat this number as having
an error margin of plus or minus 40%. However, ratios between participation
ratios for different newsgroups are quite accurate, since the network-size
component divides out.

COST RATIO: DOLLARS PER MONTH PER READER

The most controversial field in the survey report is the "$US per month per
reader". It is the estimated number of dollars that are being spent on
behalf of each reader, worldwide, on telephone costs to transmit this
newsgroup. The cost ratio does not include the cost of disk storage to store
the news or of computer time to process it; both of those are assumed to be
free.

The cost ratio is computed as follows:

$US/month/reader = ($USPerMonthPerSite * numberOfSites) / numberOfReaders
$USPerMonthPersite = KBytesTrafficPerMonth * $USPerKByte
$USPerKByte = ($USperMinute / KBytesPerMinute) * (1 - CompressionFactor)
$USperMinute = 0.10	[ten cents per minute avg phone cost]
KBytesPerMinute = 60 * BytesPerSecond / 1000
BytesPerSecond = 100	[average transfer rate over 1200-baud line]
CompressionFactor = 0.4 [40% compression is typical for netnews]

Combining all these gives

$USPerMonthPersite =
    KBytesTrafficPerMonth * (0.10 / 6) * (1 - 0.4)
  = KBytesTrafficPerMonth / 100

Therefore:

$US/month/reader =
    (KBytesTrafficPerMonth * numberOfSites) / (100 * numberOfReaders)

The accuracy of this number is in fact better than the accuracy of the
participation ratio, because the source of error--the network size
estimate--is present both in the numerator and the denominator, and therefore
cancels out. The primary source of bias in this number comes from the bias in
the "estimated number of readers, worldwide", which is described above. Treat
this value as being accurate to within about 25%.


SITE PARTICIPATION

I would like to receive data from every site on USENET. The arbitron programs
(posted to net.sources along with this report) work on news 2.9 and 2.10.[1-3]
and on many versions of notesfiles.


Brian Reid
DEC Western Research Laboratory, Palo Alto CA
reid@decwrl.DEC.COM
{ihnp4,allegra,decvax,ucbvax,sun,glacier}!decwrl!reid