[net.sci] Parapsychology: Replication

cooper@pbsvax.dec.com (07/23/86)

In message <14680@ucbvax.BERKELEY.EDU> Matthew P. Wiener
(weemba@brahms.BERKELEY.EDU) says:

>Topher has managed to extract falsehoods from my statements by twisting
>my meanings.  I wish to put back in what I was referring to.

He then proceeds to vehemently and aggressively provide support for my
position.  This has occurred several times now.  Am I totally failing to
be clear?  Or is Matthew simply assuming that nothing I say could possibly
make sense so I must have meant the opposite of what I said?  Or is it
a bit of both?

I'm going to try once again:

    1)	There are two distinct types of experimental "repetition" in
	science, or more accurately there is a continuum with two poles.

    2)	The first type is "strict replication".  In strict replication
	the original experiment is duplicated, as accurately as possible
	on the basis of the published report.  The function of this
	type of experiment is to support the belief that all factors
	relevant to producing the results are known.
	
	Ideally, strict replication is theory-free.  It is a confirmation
	of a statement that if you do precisely thus and thus and thus
	such-and-such will result, irrespective of any interpretation
	of what those results mean.  In practice, some kind of theory,
	justified or not, must be used to select those factors to be
	reported as being part of the experiment.

	Most elementary discussions of the philosophy of science (including
	college level courses for scientists) seem to discuss this type of
	repetition.  *For*good*and*sufficient*reasons* strict replication
	is rarely done in most scientific fields and is published even
	less often.

    3)	The second type of experimental repetition is what I called
	"confirmation of conclusions."  In this case the repetition is
	strongly guided by the conclusions or the interpretation given
	the results.  The original experiment is used as a guide in
	setting up another experiment under different conditions.  The
	experiment and the conditions may only be slightly different or
	may be radically different.  The purpose of this type of
	repetition is to provide support for the belief that what seemed
	to have happened in the original experiment really did happen.

    4)	This whole discussion started when someone presented the tired
	stereotype of parapsychologists as unconcerned with reliability
	and repeatability.  I countered this suggestion by pointing out
	that much more of the parapsychological literature was devoted
	to attempts at strict replication than most other fields.  This
	was not meant to denigrate those other fields -- they operate
	under different conditions.  It was only meant to demonstrate a
	concern for repeatability on the part of the parapsychological
	community.

    5)	Matthew attempted to show that there was a high rate of published
	replications by giving several examples.  I used those examples
	to illustrate that we were talking about two different types of
	experimental repetition.  Matthew objects to my "twisting his
	meanings" by talking about something different than he was.
	I intended no such thing.  I was attempting to show that we
	were in fact talking about two different things.

    6)	The basic effects of parapsychology have been confirmed in
	literally thousands of well controlled experiments.  What is
	lacking is a set of conditions under which psi effects occur
	consistently.  That is, strict replicability still eludes us.

	What this means is that some of the conditions which are necessary
	for psi to occur are still unknown, or cannot generally be
	accurately produced or measured.  This is a situation that
	parapsychology shares with *most* fields of science.  Nobody
	calls meteorologists pseudoscientists because their predictions
	are frequently wrong.

    7)	Critics often base their criticism on parapsychology's lack of
	a "repeatable experiment".  If there is any discussion of the
	point (usually there is not) it is made clear that what is being
	required is a strict replication.
	
	Frequently the demand is made that the experiment be repeatable
	by "anyone", apparently without regard to skill, training, talent,
	and access to subjects and other resources.  This is a requirement
	frequently not met even in physics -- some physicists are known
	for there skill in performing experiments, while others are best
	kept to theory or experimental *design*.  As we start dealing with
	biological systems, then higher animals and finally human subjects
	the requirements of personal skill become more and more important
	(and more and more openly discussed).  When you realize that
	under the hypothesis being tested *double blind conditions are 
	impossible*, the requirement becomes ludicrous.  It can only be
	expected to be met if psi does not exist.

    8)	If Matthew feels, as he seems to, that strict replication is of
	secondary importance, he'll find me in complete agreement.  He
	should be arguing with critics such as Flew, Hyman, Gardner and
	Marks.

Matthew directs a number of specific questions at me.  In case he didn't
intend them to be rhetorical, I'll provide brief answers.

>How do you draw the border between *exact* duplication and independent
>confirmation?

I don't, they are extremes on a continuum.  One can frequently distinguish,
however, whether the principal intent was to confirm specific results or
specific conclusions.

>There are only a few ways to find charm.  In the past decade, they've been
>used over and over again.  (Or do you consider, for example, the use of el-
>ectrons accelerated by method X to be different than electrons accelerated
>by method Y?)

Seems extremely unlikely to me.  Much more likely to effect the outcome is
such factors as the nature of the particle being used, the density of the
beam, the intensity of magnetic/electrical fields being used to control it,
whether the "target" is a counter-rotating beam of anti-particles or a
a fixed target of aggregate matter, in the latter case the aggregate targets
nature, plus many details of how the results are detected.

>>                                The Michelson-Morley experiment may well
>>have been replicated, I don't know, but what is being refered to is refined
>>versions of the experiment being performed with different, more sensitive
>>apparatus.
>
>So?  Do you object?  Even if the apparatus is of equal sensitivity, it
>still is different, right?  At this rate, you'll soon be able to say that
>no experiments are ever replicated, since *sameness* is impossible across
>time, or some such nonsense.

Of course I don't object, just the contrary.  As I said in the article
you're quoting, pure "strict-replication" cannot be accomplished in
practice.  I don't attach any great importance to this, however.

>Experimental claims of such medium range modifications have run around for
>at least the last ten years or so.  I have absolutely no idea why the Eot-
>vos reanalysis in particular is getting so much prominence.

I don't either (although I could make some guesses).  What has this got to
do with what we were discussing?

		Topher Cooper

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