[net.sci] increasing_population!=increasing_diversity

throopw@dg_rtp.UUCP (Wayne Throop) (09/08/86)

> janw@inmet.UUCP (Jan Wasilewsky)

> Our ancestors survived by diversity and competition: individual
> groups died [...] but others were not affected [...]

One of my main reasons to fear further increasing the population of
the earth is that the last few hundred years of increase has been
acompanied by drastic *decreases* in diversity, and this change seems
likely to continue, and perhaps accelerate.

Taking just one example from the "green revolution" that Jan seems so
sure will keep outpacing population increase, we discover that more and
more people are depending directly on fewer and fewer distinct strains
of agricultural species.  The reason seems simple.  To feed ever
increasing populations, only the "best" products can be used, else
underproduction and starvation results.  Population pressure dictates
that less productive (but perhaps more robust to unforseen hazards)
strains cannot be used.  Thus diversity decreases.

There are other underpinnings of our society that have undergone similar
diversity decreases under population pressure.  Because of this (and
other reasons), while I am not nearly so universally pessimistic as
Ehrlich, neither am I so optimistic as Jan seems to be.

> (4) The biotech industry is starting to produce artificial
> genetic variations that should diminish our dependence  on  those
> naturally occurring.

It seems certain that any currently projected technology does *not*
diminish our dependence on naturally occuring variations.  Gene-splicing
does *not* imply genetic design.


In summary, it seems to me that, while I agree with Jan that increased
diversity is a Good Thing, increasing population does *not*
automatically lead to increasing diversity.  In fact, the reverse is
often true in important respects, and population increase is to be
feared on these grounds.

(   Please note that I am *not* saying what (if anything) Ought To Be
    Done About It.  There are many reasons to suppose that population
    control by the state may be worse than the problem it purports to
    solve, not the least of which is the fact that usually state
    invervention *also* reduces diversity.  But I certainly don't find
    reason to embrace population increase as a solution to lack of
    diversity. )

--
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                                --- Linus
Good judgement comes from experience.  Experience comes from bad judgement.
                                --- Jim Horning
Failure in the past increases the probability of success in the future.
                                --- Harold Brown
We have met the enemy, and he is us.
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-- 
Wayne Throop      <the-known-world>!mcnc!rti-sel!dg_rtp!throopw