mckeeman@wivax.UUCP (11/13/84)
It is interesting to attempt extrapolation on what we know
to other worlds, and into the past -- but not all that
scientific. Look at the best extrapolations of 50 years
ago and see how far they are from solid information
available today. An argument on Evolution prior to the
discovery of DNA is pretty wierd.
The various probability arguments we have been enjoying
recently are a cover for ignorance -- that is what
probability is, after all. Another way to look at this is
that the one system we are able to observe has evolved
intelligent life: sample 1 out of 1; extrapolation, l00 out
of 100. Somebody sort of arranged our universe to make the
evolution of intelligence pretty certain. Or one can take
the position that we are driven to that conclusion because
only on systems where intelligence has evolved will the
question even be asked.
Like I said, we don't know much. Extrapolation is mostly
for entertainment until the real scientists gather and
present (lots) more information.
/s/ Bill McKeeman.Wang-Inst at CSNet-Relay
...decvax!wivax!mckeeman
Wang Institute of Graduate Studies, Tyngsboro, MA 01879