[net.misc] The Probability of Life from Non-life

pmd@cbscc.UUCP (01/29/84)

	  From  "Origins Research" Vol. 1, No. 3   Sept.-Dec. 1978
	  Used by permission.  Paul Dubuc.

		     THE PROBABILITY OF LIFE FROM NON-LIFE

				 By Terry Brown

	       Terry  Brown completed two years of undergraduate study
	  at the University of	California, Riverside and received his
	  B.A. degree in biology from the University of California  at
	  San  Diego.	 He  is currently [at the time of publication]
	  working toward a  Masters  degree  in  Public Health at Loma
	  Linda University.
	       The following was written for a Human Physiology  class
	  during Summer, 1978.


	       In  this  paper some of the basic facts of biochemistry
	  which  pertain  to  the  supposed  mechanistic  formation of
	  prebiotic  proteins  on  the	*early	earth*	are  examined.
	  Problems with the required primitive environment are briefly
	  mentioned including 1) a reducing atmosphere, 2) ultraviolet
	  radiation, and 3) underwater, steam and ice theories.    The
	  exclusive presence of L form amino acids in living organisms
	  is discussed.  Finally the probability of life evolving from
	  non-life  is	shown to be hoplessly small, even after making
	  fourteen non-trivial concessions.
	       When considering the  theory  of  evolution most people
	  think of the progression of fish to reptile  or  primate  to
	  man,	but  there  are  many  serious	objections  at an even
	  earlier    stage--the     biochemical     transition	  from
	  non-biological  matter  to  the   first   living   organism.
	  Evolutionists   generally  postulate	that  in  a  primitive
	  atmosphere,  over  billions	of   years,  natural  elements
	  combined to form amino acids which in turn  joined  to  form
	  proteins.    These  proteins	along with sugars, phosphates,
	  organic bases for  nucleic  acids,  lipids for membranes and
	  other special-purpose organic molecules combined to form the
	  first living cell that had the capacity for  metabolism  and
	  reproduction.

			   Reducing Atmosphere Needed

	       It   is	interesting  to  note  that  two  very	common
	  substances interfere with the  formation  of amino acids and
	  peptide bonds, the bond linking amino acid units together to
	  form peptides (protein).  Oxygen (O2) inhibits the formation
	  of   amino   acids   while   liquid	water	 (H2O)	  acts
	  stereochemically to block the formation of the peptide bonds
	  between  amino  acids.[1]    With  these well known chemical
	  facts in mind, it is not  surprising to notice that such men
	  as Stanley Miller (at UCSD, and Nobel Prize winner  for  his
	  work on abiotic formation of amino acids) postulate that the
	  atmosphere  of the primitive earth contained no free oxygen.
	  Such an atmosphere is called	a *reducing atmosphere*.  This
	  is a tremendously significant assumption  for  evolutionists
	  to  make, and there is of course no conclusive geological or
	  meteorological evidence for this idea.
	       The assumption  of  a  reducing	atmosphere presents an
	  overwhelming problem	for  the  molecules-to-man  theorists.
	  Without free oxygen (O2) there is no known way to form ozone
	  (O3),   and	without   ozone,   the	tremendously  powerful
	  ultraviolet (UV)  radiation  from  the  sun would completely
	  sterilize the surface of the earth.  Not only would  growing
	  polymers  of	biochemically active compounds be destroyed by
	  this UV  radiation,  but  certainly  any  life  forms on the
	  surface would be destroyed in rapid fashion.
	       Recognizing the lack  of  protection  from  ultraviolet
	  rays	on  the  surface, some scientists have postulated that
	  the first  macromolecules  of  life  were formed underwater.
	  This, of course, takes care of the UV problem, but  we  have
	  to remember that liquid water prevents the overlap of atomic
	  orbitals  needed  for  the  pepticle	bond  to form.	To get
	  around  this	problem,   some   scientists  have  postulated
	  formation of proteins on ice or in steam clouds.    This  is
	  admittedly a clever approach to getting rid of liquid water,
	  but  leads  to  two inescapable problems.  First is the fact
	  that heat in excess of 100 deg. C destroys (denatures) every
	  known protein by ripping  apart  the	peptide bond.  So much
	  for the formation of long polymers  of  amino  acid  chains.
	  With	the  *ice theory*  one  must  recognize  that chemical
	  reactions are slowed	tremendously  at low temperatures, and
	  it can be shown that below 0 deg. C peptide bonds cannot  be
	  formed  without  the presence of catalysts known as enzymes.
	  Note that all enzymes  are  proteins.    Where did the first
	  enzymes come from?

			      D vs. L Amino Acids

	       There is another extremely significant fact of  organic
	  chemistry  that I would like to note at this point.  This is
	  the problem of *handedness*  and optical activity of organic
	  molecules with an asymetric carbon atom  (amino  acids,  for
	  example).    These  molecules can exist in either the D or L
	  conformation,   mirror   images   of	 each	other,	called
	  stereoisomers, and  they  are  chemically  indistinguishable
	  from	one  another  except  for  their  ability  to  reflect
	  polarized  light.    Whenever amino acids are synthesized in
	  the laboratory, the yield is	almost exactly a 50-50 mixture
	  of the D and L forms.  This is a very  significant  finding,
	  and  there  is  not  one reputable chemist in the world that
	  will deny this basic	observation.	But, here's the rub --
	  excluding a few  insignificant  exceptions,  it  seems  that
	  every  amino	acid in every protein in every living organism
	  on earth is in the L	configuration.	This is pretty amazing
	  when you consider  the  fact	that  there  are  no  chemical
	  differences  in  the	D  and L form other than their crystal
	  structure.
	       In  the	experiments   done   by   Miller  and  others,
	  simulating supposed primeval	earth  atmospheric  conditions
	  (conditions	 chosen   for	their	innate	 tendency   to
	  thermodynamically favor the  formation  of amino acids), the
	  amino acids formed were always a racemic mixture  (D	and  L
	  forms  in  equal  amounts).	In addition, there is always a
	  special trap employed to  remove these products because they
	  would be destroyed if they remained in  the  reaction  media
	  for  only  a	short  time.   The conditions leading to their
	  formation also lead to  their  destruction.	 Now it can be
	  seen that two problems occur at this point.  First  what  is
	  the  proposed  mechanism  by	which these newly formed amino
	  acids are removed  from  the	reaction  system?  In Miller's
	  experiment there was an extremely  sophisticated  artificial
	  chemical trap  which  removed  these amino acids immediately
	  upon their formation.   Secondly,  as was noted earlier, and
	  as has been observed in all laboratory  syntheses  of  amino
	  acids  and  polypeptides, the amino acids formed are racemic
	  mixtures of  the  two  isomers.    But  all living organisms
	  happen to come into existence with only the L form of  amino
	  acids  in its protein molecules?  Many scientists have tried
	  to explain this, but	as  of	yet  there is *no satisfactory
	  answer*.  As will be shown soon, the probabilities  involved
	  in  the selection of either all D or all L amino acids under
	  natural conditions are embarrassingly miniscule.


	       Up  to	this   point   we   have  encountered  several
	  insurmountable  problems   for   the	 chance,   mechanistic
	  formation  of  some of the macromolecules upon which life is
	  dependent.  There is the  necessity of excluding free oxygen
	  from the reaction system, with the resultant lack  of  ozone
	  to  preserve	the  products  of  the elaborate biochemicals.
	  Next,  the  problems	 of   excluding  liquid  water,  which
	  interestingly enough has not been found anywhere else in the
	  known universe (it either exists frozen with CO2 as on Mars,
	  or in vapor form in the vacuum of space).    Then  there  is
	  this	bothersome  problem with *handedness*, all amino acids
	  occurring in living tissues exist in the L form, while in the
	  non-living state they are  formed in racemic mixtures (equal
	  D and L).  It is on this last observation that  the  science
	  of probability enters the picture.  Please note that we have
	  not even mentioned the genetic code which is responsible for
	  the  sequencing  and	manufacture  of  proteins, which takes
	  place in a complex series  of chemical reactions which would
	  be utterly  impossible  without  the	assistance  of	highly
	  ordered proteins called enzymes.

		       The Complexity of Living Organisms

	       How complex are living organisms, even the smallest and
	  simplest  ones?    Dr. Harold J. Morowitz of Yale University
	  has done extensive research  for the National Aeronautic and
	  Space Administration	(NASA)	to  discover  the  theoretical
	  limits  for  the  simplest  free-living  thing  which  could
	  duplicate  itself.   Stated more technically, he was looking
	  for	the    minimal	  biological	entity	  capable   of
	  self-replication in an autonomous fashion.	He  took  into
	  consideration the minimum operating equipment needed and the
	  space  it would require, also giving attention to electrical
	  properties and the  hazards  of  thermal  motion.   From his
	  studies  comes  the  conclusion  that  the   smallest   such
	  theoretical  entity  would  require  239  or more individual
	  protein molecules.[2]
	       This  is  not  very  much  smaller  (simpler)  that the
	  smallest actually known autonomous living organism, which is
	  the miniscule, bacteria-like Mycoplasma hominis H39.	It has
	  around 600 different kinds of  proteins.[3]	 From  present
	  scientific  knowledge,  there  is  no reason to believe that
	  anything smaller  ever  existed.    Using  data  provided by
	  Morowitz, it can be  calculated  that  the  average  protein
	  molecule  in	the  theoretical minimal living organism would
	  contain around 445 amino acid units.
	       Let's look at the  probability  of one of these protein
	  chains being all L conformation.    There  are  20  commonly
	  occurring amino  acids,  19  of  which  are optically active
	  (glycine is not, as it  has  no  asymetric carbon atom).  In
	  many bacteria glycine makes up just over 8  percent  of  the
	  total  amino	acid molecules, so in this theoretical protein
	  we estimate that there will  be 35 glycine residues, leaving
	  410 "spots" for the other 19 types of amino  acids.	 Since
	  these amino acids are presumed to have been formed naturally
	  in  the  primitive  environment, they would have occurred in
	  statistically equal amounts of L  and  D forms.  Now ... the
	  probability of all the amino acids being L in  this  protein
	  molecule  is	1  in  2^410  (or  1  in  10^123).  This is an
	  extraordinarily  small  probability,	but  even  if  such  a
	  molecule did occur, there would need to be at least 238 more
	  molecules similar to it to  have  a complete cell.  The odds
	  of this happening (all 239 chains of 410 amino acid  length)
	  are  only 1 in 10^29345.  To get an idea of the magnitude of
	  this exponential  number,  it  is  estimated	that there are
	  10^78 atoms in the entire universe.

			 The Probability of Abiogenesis

	       If one wants to	be  completely	overwhelmed  with  the
	  improbability of chance formation of life, he should look at
	  a  theoretical  experiment  done  by	James  Coppedge of the
	  Center  for  Probability  Research  in  Biology,  located in
	  Northridge,  California.[4]	   Recognizing	 the   extreme
	  improbability of chance arranging ordered molecules, he does
	  a  series  of  calculations based on Morowitz' simplest life
	  form.  In  this  experiment  he  gives  chance  a chance, by
	  making  fourteen  concessions,  [see	end  of  article]  all
	  fourteen of which are highly extreme, and are offered in the
	  conviction  that  "if  chance  fails  under   such   extreme
	  conditions,  it  should  indicate clearly that perhaps it is
	  unreasonable to rely on it at  all  in the quest for the way
	  life began".
	       Now,  without  detailing  his  calculations,  the  odds
	  against one minimum set of proteins happening in the	entire
	  history  of  the  earth  are 10^119701 to 1.	This figure is
	  hopelessly large,  and  exceeds  our	ability  to  imagine a
	  number so large (and a chance so small).  Coppedge gives  an
	  imaginary  illustration  to  get  a  palpable  sense	of the
	  enormous dimensions of these	numbers.[5]   He calls it "the
	  case of the traveling amoeba".
	       Imagine an indestructible amoeba, and a most  tenacious
	  one, whose task it is to carry all the atoms of the universe
	  across  an  imaginary string which is 30 billion light years
	  long (the diameter of the  universe).   It moves at the rate
	  of one inch per year, and there are  10^28  inches  in  this
	  length  of  string.	It therefore takes 2x10^28 years for a
	  round trip, and the amoeba  only  carries one atom at a time
	  across this long trail and then dumps it, only to return for
	  more atoms.  The time it would  take	to  carry  the	entire
	  universe  across  would  be  the  time  for  one  round trip
	  multiplied by the number  of	atoms in the universe (10^78).
	  This gives us 10^107 years, give or take a millenium.
	       But Coppedge points out that his calculations  revealed
	  that	it  would  take chance 10^171 years to form one usable
	  protein of average length.  If  we divide that by the length
	  of time it takes to move one universe  by  slow  amoeba,  we
	  arrive  at the astounding conclusion that:  The amoeba could
	  haul 10^64 universes across the entire diameter of the known
	  universe during the expected time it would take for only one
	  protein to form  by  chance,	under  those  14 conditions so
	  favorable to chance!
	       Imagine this--even if the amoeba had  moved  had  moved
	  *only  one  inch*  during  the  15  billion  years  that the
	  universe is supposed to have existed, it would still be able
	  to carry  6x10^53  universes	across	the  string  while one
	  protein is forming.  Sooner  or  later  our  minds  come  to
	  accept  the  idea that it is not worth waiting for chance to
	  manufacture  a  protein,  let  alone	to  come  up  with the
	  DNA-RNA-ribosome system for self replication.  Well, most of
	  our minds come to accept  this  idea.    But	consider  this
	  remarkable statement by Harvard professor George Wald:

		    The  important  point  is that since the origin of
	       life  belongs   in   the   category   of  at-least-once
	       phenomena, time is on its side.	However improbable  we
	       regard  this event,... given enough time it will almost
	       certainly happen at least  once...  Time is in fact the
	       hero of plot.  Given  so  much time,  the  'impossible'
	       becomes	 possible,  the  possible  probable,  and  the
	       probable virtually certain.  One has only to wait: time
	       itself performs miracles.[6]

	       But it is clear	to  the unbiased, intelligent observer
	  that there is not nearly enough time	available  to  perform
	  such a miracle.

				   Conclusion

	       In  concluding  this section I would add that the whole
	  problem  of  abiogenesis  --	that  is,  life  from formerly
	  non-living chemicals -- devolves upon the  method  by  which
	  the  first self-replicating system evolved.  The insuperable
	  barrier, however, is that  DNA  can  only be replicated with
	  the specific help of	certain  protein  molecules  (enzymes)
	  which  in  turn  can	only  be  produced  by the command and
	  direction of DNA.  Each depends on the other an both must be
	  present for replication to take place.
	       Freeman J. Dyson, of the Institute of Advanced Studies,
	  wrote in 1971:

		    Nature has been kinder to us that we had any right
	       to expect.    As  we  look  out	into  the universe and
	       identify the many accidents of  physics	and  astronomy
	       that  have  worked  together  to our benefit, it almost
	       seems as if the universe  must in some sense known that
	       we were coming.

	       Professor Dyson goes on to assert:

		    I believe the universe is  friendly.    I  see  no
	       reason  to  suppose  that  the  cosmic  accidents  that
	       provided  so  abundantly for our welfare here on earth,
	       will no do the same for	us wherever in the universe we
	       choose to go... I hope that with  this  article	I  may
	       have  persuaded a few people... to look to the sky with
	       hopeful eyes.

	       This stops just short of  the  most logical step of all
	  -- to look to  the  sky  not	with  hope  that  the  *cosmic
	  accidents*  will  be	friendly, but in gratitude, trust, and
	  obedience to the creator who logically must be back of these
	  events that have provided for our welfare.


				****************
	       The fourteen assumptions (or concessions) giving chance
	  numerous advantages which would not have actually existed at
	  the time  of	the  presumed  evolution  of  the first living
	  thing:

	       1. Assume that the  primitive  atmosphere  was  as  the
	  evolutionists claim.
	       2.  Suppose  that all 20 amino acids did form naturally
	  and in the right  proportions,  by the action of ultraviolet
	  rays, lightning, and heat.
	       3. Presume that the amino acids were formed only in the
	  L configuration.
	       4. In the calculations which follow, assume the average
	  length of protein is 400 amino acids.
	       5. Postulate that all the atoms on earth have been used
	  to form amino acids.
	       6. Consider all the formed amino acids are  grouped  in
	  sets.
	       7.  Let these groupings be magically protected from the
	  destructive effect of UV  rays, especially the damaging ones
	  at 2600 Angstroms wavelength.
	       8. Concede that all the amino acids would automatically
	  unite, without the need for the 7 kcal  of  bond  energy  or
	  enzyme catalysis, etc.
	       9.  Allow  one  substitution in each chain, even at the
	  "active sites", with no ill effects.
	       10.  Assume  a	rate   of   chain   formation  at  the
	  fantastically    rapid    rate    of	  one-third    of    a
	  ten-million-billionth  second  per  chain   formation   (150
	  thousand  trillion  times  the  rate	of  reaction in living
	  things, based on E. coli protein formation rates).
	       11. Every unusable chain is instantaneously dismantled,
	  its component amino acids being  used again in the reaction,
	  which occurs at a rate of 10^24 per year per set.
	       12. If a  usable sequence is obtained, the action  will
	  stop	and  this  protein preserved for use in the 239 chains
	  needed.
	       13. If the 239 chains are made, they will be assumed to
	  be able to merge into one group, ready to work together in a
	  living system (no geographical separation).
	       14. Assume the universe to  be 15 billion years old and
	  the earth 5 billion.
			       ******************

				   References

	       1.   Lehninger,	 Albert   L.   _Biochemistry_,	 Worth
	  Publishers, New York, 1970, pp. 774, 777.
	       2. Morowitz, H.J. _Energy Flow in  Biology_,  New  York
	  Academic Press, 1968, p. 84.
	       3.  Hans  R.  Bode  and	Harold	J. Morowitz, "Size and
	  Structure of the Mycoplasma  Hominis H39 Chromosome", in the
	  _Journal of Molecular Biology_, Vol. 23, 1967, page 98.
	       4.  James  F.   Coppedge,   _Evolution:	 Possible   or
	  Impossible?_, Zondervan, 1973, pages 105-115.
	       5. ibid., pages 119, 120.
	       6.     Henry    Morris,	  _Scientific	 Creationism_,
	  Creation-Life  Publishers,  San  Diego,  page  66,  quote of
	  George Wald, "The Origin  of  Life",	in  _The  Physics  and
	  Chemistry of Life_, Simon and Schuster, New York, 1955, page
	  12.
	       7.  Freeman  J.	Dyson,	"Energy  in  the Universe", in
	  _Scientific American_, vol. 224, Sept. 1971, page 59.

brian@digi-g.UUCP (Brian Westley) (01/30/84)

	Just to point out some of the logical errors in the argument against
life developing from inorganic chemicals...You claim that:
1) since L & D amino acids, when synthesized, form a 50/50 mix, and
2) since the simplest form of life needs approx. 410 acids, and
3) since almost all life uses L acids, that
4) the probability of this arising by chance is 2^410?!?
	This is just plain stupid.  When amino acids were first discovered,
only the natural ones were known.  When later they (and new ones) were
synthesized in the lab, the left & right handedness cropped up, so the L
and D modifiers were added.  All the known natural acids were arbitrarily
dubbed L to make it easier on future biology students.  Also, you stated that:
1) free water hasn't been detected anywhere else in the universe, therefore
2) Earth is the only place in the universe with free water.
	Go to Alpha Centari and see if you can detect free water in THIS
system.  Unexcited free water is hard to detect over a distance of many
parsecs, and excited water doesn't stay water very long if anything else
is around.
						(signed) Merlyn Leroy

pmd@cbscc.UUCP (Paul Dubuc) (01/31/84)

	Just to point out some of the logical errors in the argument against
    life developing from inorganic chemicals...You claim that:
    1) since L & D amino acids, when synthesized, form a 50/50 mix, and
    2) since the simplest form of life needs approx. 410 acids, and
    3) since almost all life uses L acids, that
    4) the probability of this arising by chance is 2^410?!?
	This is just plain stupid.  When amino acids were first discovered,
    only the natural ones were known.  When later they (and new ones) were
    synthesized in the lab, the left & right handedness cropped up, so the L
    and D modifiers were added.  All the known natural acids were arbitrarily
    dubbed L to make it easier on future biology students. 

The point is that when supposed early earth conditions are simulated
(as in Stanley Miller's experiments) a racemic mixture of amino acids
is always produced.  Yet these are the conditions under which life is
supposed to have first come into existence.  Of course only natural amino
acids existed when they were first discovered.  They are the only ones that
exist in nature (living things).  Yet when the "natural" evolution of these
living things from non-living chemicals is simulated, both types of amino
acids are produced.  Not only that, they have to be removed immediately from
the reaction medium if they are not to be destroyed.

Also the distinction between D and L amino acids is not just that the L is
natural and D synthesized.  As the article points out, they are
stereoisomers.  That is, the molecular structures are mirror images of each
other--like our right hand is to our left.  (Hence the term *handedness*). 

    Also, you stated that:
    1) free water hasn't been detected anywhere else in the universe, therefore
    2) Earth is the only place in the universe with free water.
	Go to Alpha Centari and see if you can detect free water in THIS
    system.  Unexcited free water is hard to detect over a distance of many
    parsecs, and excited water doesn't stay water very long if anything else
    is around.

The article did not state that the earth was the only place in the universe
with liquid water (I don't know what you mean by *free water*.  The article
referred to liquid water.)  The point was made that liquid water prevents the
formation of peptide bonds between amino acids.  Earth is the only place
known to have free water, yet life is supposed to have had its beginning
here.  The point is that an environment without liquid water would have been
more suitable for abiogenesis (though there are many other problems to
overcome).  You seem to have gotten the argument backwards here.

Perhaps this explains why a few evolutionist scientists (like Sir Fred Hoyle
and Francis Crick (sp?) entertain (and even espouse, in Hoyle's case) 
theories that the first microrganisms came from outer space and then evolved
into us.  This doesn't explain how those life forms came into existence,
however.

Paul Dubuc

rrizzo@bbncca.ARPA (Ron Rizzo) (02/01/84)

Right on, Mervyn Leroy!

To emphasize how wrong-headed Terry Brown is, suppose despite everything
we miraculously had evidence from the Creation of Ls & Ds being present
in a 50/50 mix.  Brown's resort to "probability" & calculations is
STILL absurd.  From many analagous situations successfully treated in
the sciences, the situation (50/50 Ls & Ds then, only Ls in developed
life) is clearly a case of a selection mechanism at work (by definition
not a probabilistic device).  This in turn points up Brown's equivocating
use of the words "impossible" & "insurmountable" : he confuses "impossible
in principle" with "impossible in fact".  At best, the specific theories
he criticizes are the latter.  His criticisms don't impugn the ability of
a "mechanistic" account to succeed.  The mere fact we're able to imagine
things like "selection mechanisms" shows that mechanistic accounts of the
origin of life are indeed possible in principle.

Brown inflates his case in another way: he misrepresents the state-of-
debate in origins research by omitting to make the obvious point that
Miller's production of amino acids by a discharge in a "primeval" gas
mixture, which he cites, creates "life" from "nonlife", destroys for
all time the first & most crucial claim of vitalists & supernaturalists,
forcing creationists into quibbles over matters of detail: components of
a fully worked-out account.  To appreciate the enormity of such a (forced)
concession, one need only call to mind the century-long debate vitalists
waged (& lost) in the 1800s.

rrizzo@bbncca.ARPA (Ron Rizzo) (02/08/84)

The stupidity of Paul Dubuc & A. Ray Miller is truly awesome, & like
any laborious achievement, such as the Pyramids, the marvel is not so
much how it was accomplished but why.

The real threat posed by "creationists" & their ilk is not to wear us
out by endless argument but, like the threat of pollution, to bury us
in garbage by never shutting up (maybe they take an oath?).

Conscientious replies like John Hobson's & Richard Harter's are laudable
but have no effect on "creationists" except to provide them with quota-
tions to further extend their lengthy articles.

I think we should grant Dubuc's request & give "creationism" its own
mailing list.  It could be named "net.futility", or, better yet, made
an ARPAnet group, "fa.futility" : compiling digests would be easy since
the editor would simply broadcast a zero-length message every two weeks.
That way if "creationists" still sent mail to other lists, we could
flame back with net.jokes.d-style rebukes such as "This is not the non-
sense mailing list, idiot!  Post to net.futility or get scorched!!"

Even a newsgroup for miscellaneous items ought to observe minimum stan-
dards of intelligibility & content.

					Cheers,
					Ron Rizzo

richard@sequent.UUCP (02/11/84)

I suppose it doesn't happen very often, eh? :-)

But when it doesn't happen, there's no-one to ponder it.

When is does happen, we get suspicious?

Don't claim that Supernatural Powers must have been responsible for
our creation until you have a database of how many worlds similar in
evolutionary conditions made it to this level.  If every fourth world
seems to have sentient life, *then* get suspicious.  Or if we wander
through the universe for a few thousand years, visiting millions of
planets, and we're *still* alone, definatly start wondering.  Any
other conclusion means you're just being hasty.  Have patience.  ;-)

			from the confused and bleeding fingertips of
				...!sequent!richard

I just hope we last that long.

pmd@cbscc.UUCP (Paul Dubuc) (02/18/84)

I want to sincerely thank Bill Jefferys for taking the time to
submit a reasoning response to my submission of Terry Brown's
paper, "The Probability of Life from Non-Life".  I very much
prefer this type of argument to being called stupid or getting a
behavioral analysis in the mail.  However, as one who has taken
a binding oath never to "shut up" :-), I would like to give my
response to Bill's article.

First I want to make a few technical objections to some of Bill's
statements.

1) I don't know what point that Bill is trying to make by saying
that Brown's argument is "as old as the hills".  That may be true,
but it is does not disqualify the argument.  Also, Bill stated that
evolutionists have repeatedly pointed out the fallacies of this
argument.  Could you give a reference?

2) I don't think the assertion that Brown is setting up a "straw man"
is correct.  When biology textbooks attempt to give us an explanation
of the origin of life, they cite the conditions of the early earth
that Brown has in his paper, and Stanley Miller's experiments as a
starting point.  Brown explains the problems with some of the abiogenesis
scenarios (I have read others).

The calculations performed by James Coppedge were an attempt to determine
the feasibility of sponteaneous generation occurring under the
evolutionists conditions.  Contrary to Bill's statement, the assumptions
made by Coppedge are not imputed to evolutionists, nor are they purported
to be necessary for sponteanous generation to occurr.  Most of them
were made simply to make abiogenesis MORE probable for the purposes
of his calculations.  Yet the calculated probability is still miniscule.

3) Brown does not detail the probability calculations.  He cites
the book "Evolution:  Possible or Impossible" by James Coppedge, Zondervan,
1973.  This book is apparently out of print, and I have noticed that
public librarys are not inclined to stock creationist books.

With that out of the way I would like to give my comments on Bill's
discussion of the 14 "assumptions" made by Coppedge (not Brown) in
his calculations.  Those following this discussion should refer to
Bill's article for a listing of them, since they are only referred to
by number here.

>> Brown claims that none of these conditions would have existed at the
>> time of the emergence of life, but as an astronomer, I know that the truth 
>> of point 14 has been firmly established by an overwhelming mass of evidence 
>> from many different disciplines.  Also, despite Brown's attempt to depict 
>> point 1 as a major concession to evolutionary theory, it is in fact well 
>> established by now on both astronomical and physical grounds (and not on 
>> grounds of its necessity for abiogenesis), that the early Earth must have 
>> had a reducing atmosphere, as the giant planets do today.

This may be a valid point, but Brown's assertion that the conditions
would not have existed is not an important part of his argument.  The
point is that, though he may think them debatable, they are taken as
true anyway for the purposes of the calculations made.  Also I would
like to ask you again for references concerning the proof that the earth
*must* have had a reducing atmosphere (no O2) on grounds independent
of abiogenesis.  Can we simply infer that because Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus
and Neptune have reducing atmospheres, then Earth must have had one also?

>> As to point 2, I certainly do assume that amino acids would have formed 
>> naturally, and the experiments of Miller and others clearly demonstrate 
>> this possibility.

Brown pointed out that it did not really lend support for abiogenesis.
Miller's apparatus used a trap to remove the amino acids from the reaction
media.  That media is more adept a destroying the amino acids than forming
them.

>> I do not assume that the proportions of amino acids initially
>> produced have to be the same as in the final proteins.

No, but I think it makes the calculations easier and more favorable to
abiogenesis.

>> I am not sure about point 7.  Some shielding may have been needed 
>> at some time; on the other hand the use of the term "magically" seems to 
>> me to be gratuitous.  It implies that natural means did not exist 
>> to accomplish this end, and I challenge Brown or anyone else to prove that.

Brown discussed some of the natural means of shielding and separation from
liquid water that have been proposed by theorists and the problems with
them.  Why is the burden on Brown to prove that no means of sheilding existed?
How is he supposed to "prove" that?  Anyway, the calculations assume that
sheilding did exist.

>> As for points 3, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 and 13, they are simply
>> silly and not needed to explain the origin of life.  I am offended that
>> Brown would presume to attribute such claptrap to evolutionists, but
>> I realize that this is only part of his debating technique.  As will be
>> seen below, these points are the heart of his preposterous model for
>> the origin of life.

Again, the assumptions were not attributed to evolutionists but were
made to test the probability of abiogenesis occurring.  I think that
without some of them the calculations would be impossible to make in
the first place.  The probability of abiogenesis without them should
me much smaller.  That is the whole point.

>> Now how does he propose to form life?  His model (which he falsely
>> attributes to evolutionists) is that we decide on a particular "minimal"
>> configuration consisting of 239 proteins each consisting of 400 amino
>> acids.  He then proposes that we (in essence) put the amino acids we
>> have formed naturally into a box, shake them up, and see if we have formed
>> *that particular combination*.  If not, we have failed and have to start 
>> over again.  If we have, we succeed and stop the experiment.  He then
>> remarks (and I have no reason to doubt the accuracy of the calculation)
>> that the probability of this happening is exceedingly remote.  However,
>> "garbage in, garbage out" - the whole calculation is, in my view, meaningless
>> and irrelevant.

The configuration for the simplest self replicating organism was obtained
from a NASA researcher (H.J. Morowitz from Yale, probably not a creationist
-- see the reference cited in Brown's article).  I think this was determined
to give scientists an idea of the least they would be able to expect when
looking for life on other planets.  Why didn't they consider a virus?  I
think because viruses depend on living cells for their reproduction. 
They steal some of the cell's own genetic material.

I don't think any *particular combination* was specified in the calculations.
Any *useable* amino acid chain was considered a success and preserved for
the formation of the simplest cell, which would require 239 different kinds
of proteins.  The emphasis is not on a particular set of proteins but on
how many different kinds are required for the cell.  The point is that we
cannot have a self replicating organism made up of only a few different
kinds of protein molecules.  The figure of 239 was derived independantly
from any known living organism and it was noted that the figure comes
close to the number of proteins making up the simplest known single-cell
organism.

>> The second fallacy in the model is in requiring the successful assembly
>> of all this material in one fell swoop.  Brown does not consider the
>> possibility of any life precursors, that is, smaller units with perhaps
>> limited powers of self-replication that might have existed under the
>> conditions of the primitive Earth.  Can he prove that such things did not
>> exist?  I don't think so, since our knowledge of molecular biology
>> is still primitive.  Moreover, I believe that any reasonable theory
>> of abiogenesis would have to make use of this idea.

Again, why is the burden of proof laid on creationists?  They have to
prove that any conceivable mechanism (life precursors) did not exist.
This is like requiring the atheist to prove the non-existence of
God before his beliefs could be considered tenable.  It doesn't matter
that such proposed life precursors (e.g. coacervate droplets and proteinoid
microspheres) have not proven adaquate.  Creation is still not considered
a valid possibility for the origin of life.  Scientist still feel quite
justified in ruling out divine creation as a possibility.  In the "two-
faced" approach to the issue, many scientists will assert that the concept
of a creator is beyond science, that science cannot address the possibility.
Yet many of them will promote their unsubstantiated views of the origin
of life as superior to the creation view, saying, in effect, that creation
is not true.

Creationists are often belittled because they believe in a Creator and
search for scientific evidence to support that belief.  This is supposed
to show their inherent narrow mindedness and a great hinderance
to their meaningful contribution to science.  I see buried in this attitude
the assumption that atheistic presuppositions are inherently superior
and more objective than theistic ones.  One who studies origins with
the idea that a creator is responsible is being narrow minded while
one who studies it under the conviction that there is no God behind
it all is not.  I don't get it.  Has God been proven not to exist so as
to make those who believe in his existence foolish and narrow minded?
Why is scientific research to support non-theistic conclustions justified
and research to support theistic conclusions mocked?

>> Brown emphasizes the fact that each amino acid has its stereoisomer
>> counterpart.  He challenges evolution theory to explain why only the L
>> forms exist in life today.  One possible answer was mentioned already on
>> the net - namely that the first life form or life precursor to have reached
>> the point where it could self-replicate using the "soup" of L and D amino
>> acids that existed at the time would have quickly taken over and left
>> progeny that were like it.  Other mechanisms might have operated, for
>> example catalysis (by either inorganic or organic catalysts) might well
>> have been important and have favored either the production or the linking
>> of one type of amino acid.

I don't think Brown made any such challenge.  Only the observation that
all existing life contains the L form.  He remarked that this fact was
interesting since there isn't really that much difference between the
stereoisomers.  Again, the calculations made only take L amino acids into
account.

Also, where do you get the idea that the if the first life precursor had
all L amino acids it would have "taken over", preventing others (maybe
using D types) from continuing?  This seems to make the assumption that
abiogensis could have only happened once, or maybe more than once but
with only the L type acids.  Is this a sound assumption to make?

>> Creationists want you to think that any incompleteness or controversy
>> in evolution theory is evidence for creationism.  This is a false premise.

Your right, that is a false premise.  It is also a false premise that
nothing is evidence for creationism.  For myself, I don't presume to
prove creation by disproving evolution.  Only to open the door for a
competing explaination of origins.

>> Viewed in this way, Brown's claim to have disproven evolution is not
>> different from the claim of early aerodynamicists to have proven
>> that bees cannot fly.  The bees, of course, having never heard of
>> aerodynamics, went on flying anyway.  Our old Earth hasn't heard
>> of Brown's proof either, and so it went out and created life anyway.  
>> Despite all the carping of the creationists, this fact is securely 
>> established by the overwhelming mass of diverse and independent 
>> evidence available to science today.

This is very interesting.  Throughout your whole article you have claimed
not to be trying to prove abiogenesis, but here in the last two sentences
you state that it is a fact.  You say that there is much evidence to support
it but you feel no obligation to present any of it, only ad hoc
explanations.  Then you challenge creationists to disprove those.

>> I think that creationists are simply unaware of the strength,
>> quantity and diversity of evidence that flatly contradicts
>> their stand.  Certainly when I read criticisms of evolution
>> by major creationist authors, I am impressed by the shallowness 
>> of their presentation of the *science*.  Perhaps this is because
>> their preconceived creationist bias makes it difficult for them to
>> read the literature objectively.  Their belief they can destroy what 
>> has been built up during centuries of research by some of the most 
>> talented, creative and intelligent of human minds, by nitpicking at 
>> details and attempting to argue evolution out of existence 
>> (as exemplified by Brown's article), is in my view pathetic.  
>> This is really too bad, because they are missing out on one of the 
>> most exciting adventures ever undertaken by our species.  In any 
>> case, their efforts are doomed to failure.

I am not sure that what creationists believe goes against all of
the "centuries of research".

I would just like to mention what I think to be one of the best
creationist critiques of evolution in case you or others are interested.
It is "Evolution: Nature and Scripture in Conflict?", by
Dr. Pattle P. T. Pun (PhD Biology), Zondervan, 1982.  Dr. Pun is
an advocate of what is called "progressive creation".  He rejects the
"young earth" arguments of "fiat creationists" like Dr. Henry Morris
as both unscientific and unbiblical.  He also shows an appreciation for
the evidence supporting evolution.

I would also like to say that the argument against abiogenesis is not
an attempt to "argue evolution out of existence".  I see no reason to
interpret it that way.  As Byron Howes has already pointed out it is only
and argument against chemical evolution, not neo-Darwinism.  I don't think
that fact makes it a non-issue or a "straw man" argument, however.
Science does not give us any alternative but to believe that abiogenesis
has occurred (Creationist disbelief is regarded as unscientific) even
though there is not much empirical support for the phenomenon.
For the time being, I find more reason not to believe in abiogenesis than
to believe in it.  I would not go as far as to say that attempts to 
prove it are "doomed to failure".  I am no prophet.

Well, I think this must be my last major contribution to this discussion.
As I said before, the extra time I want to devote to my little daughter
takes precedence.  I would still appreciate responses to the things
I have said here.  I know better that to think that I have the last word
on anything. 

Also, I hear rumors that cbscc may be taken off the net.  If that
happens it's good-bye for good, I guess.  Mail will still work I suppose.

Paul Dubuc 		... cbosgd!cbscc!pmd

guy@rlgvax.UUCP (Guy Harris) (02/18/84)

> Creationists are often belittled because they believe in a Creator and
> search for scientific evidence to support that belief.  This is supposed
> to show their inherent narrow mindedness and a great hinderance
> to their meaningful contribution to science.  I see buried in this attitude
> the assumption that atheistic presuppositions are inherently superior
> and more objective than theistic ones.  One who studies origins with
> the idea that a creator is responsible is being narrow minded while
> one who studies it under the conviction that there is no God behind
> it all is not.  I don't get it.  Has God been proven not to exist so as
> to make those who believe in his existence foolish and narrow minded?
> Why is scientific research to support non-theistic conclustions justified
> and research to support theistic conclusions mocked?

We jump here from "creator" to "God", which by the passing mention with
no clarification I read as "the traditional Judaeo-Christian God".  There
*is* a difference between saying "we didn't get here via abiogenesis
and evolution" and "the God of the Old Testament did it".  I also don't see
that the presupposition of "we got here via abiogenesis and evolution" as
being "atheistic"; lots of people who believe in that God support that
presupposition.  When are those who do research to support theistic conclusions
going to provide evidence for those conclusions, not just against the "non-
theistic" conclusions (I do not take the question of whether the abiogenesis/
evolution model is "non-theistic" is a to be settled)?

If the concerns of theology are amenable to scientific investigation, let
those who consider those concerns important to science show how.  If not,
discussions of "scientific creationism" shouldn't contain assumptions
about the nature of a creator or creators.

	Guy Harris
	{seismo,ihnp4,allegra}!rlgvax!guy

bill@utastro.UUCP (William H. Jefferys) (02/27/84)

In an effort to keep this as short as possible, I have responded only
to Paul Dubuc's most important points.  The reducing atmosphere, the 
question of concentrating amino acids, or the exclusive use of L amino 
acids, have been well covered by others in recent contributions.

>> 1) I don't know what point that Bill is trying to make by saying
>> that Brown's argument is "as old as the hills".  That may be true,
>> but it is does not disqualify the argument.  Also, Bill stated that
>> evolutionists have repeatedly pointed out the fallacies of this
>> argument.  Could you give a reference?

A recent article is "Creationist Misunderstanding, Misrepresentation and
Misuse of the Second Law of Thermodynamics" by Stanley Freske,
*Creation/Evolution*, Spring 1981.  I'm sorry that I can't give you
any earlier ones, but I have read some (even many years ago) and they 
do exist.  The point is that the argument is clearly fallacious, yet 
creationists insist on trotting it out.

>> 2) I don't think the assertion that Brown is setting up a "straw man"
>> is correct.  When biology textbooks attempt to give us an explanation
>> of the origin of life, they cite the conditions of the early earth
>> that Brown has in his paper, and Stanley Miller's experiments as a
>> starting point.  Brown explains the problems with some of the abiogenesis
>> scenarios (I have read others).

I have to disagree with you here.  Although Brown (and Coppedge, who was
responsible for the calculation) do refer to Miller, and to Bode and 
Morowitz, the final model they produce is so unlike what scientists *really*
postulate for abiogenesis that it amounts to setting up a straw man.
If they want to criticise abiogenesis, they should specifically criticise
what biologists have proposed, rather than criticising a position of their 
own devising.

>> ...Brown's assertion that the conditions [old Earth and reducing atmosphere]
>> would not have existed is not an important part of his argument.  The
>> point is that, though he may think them debatable, they are taken as
>> true anyway for the purposes of the calculations made.

I think that Brown is grandstanding here, and on many other of his
points that he "generously" concedes to "make it easier to create life."
I don't fault him for using standard debating tricks, but I want 
people to be aware of them.

>> Again, the assumptions [Brown's points 3, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 and
>> 13] were not attributed to evolutionists but were made to test the 
>> probability of abiogenesis occurring.  I think that
>> without some of them the calculations would be impossible to make in
>> the first place.  The probability of abiogenesis without them should
>> me much smaller.  That is the whole point.

I strongly disagree.  In particular, condition #9 makes abiogenesis much 
harder (see below).

>> I don't think any *particular combination* was specified in the calculations.
>> Any *useable* amino acid chain was considered a success and preserved for
>> the formation of the simplest cell, which would require 239 different kinds
>> of proteins.

I stand (slightly) corrected.  Coppedge's actual assumption (#9, as quoted by
Brown) is:

>> Allow one substitution in each chain, even at the "active sites", with
>> no ill effects.

This is hardly different from requiring particular proteins to be formed.
The allowable proteins can differ from the target proteins only
in one position.  Notice how a very restrictive assumption has been cleverly
slipped in in the guise of "making it easier" to form life.  Freske 
addresses this point in his article, which criticises a similar calculation
by Gish.  He says, "Gish doesn't mention whether anyone has systematically
examined the properties of any significant number of [amino acid] sequences.
but even if thousands had been investigated, this would be nowhere near [1 in]
10^119 [which Gish assumed], and it would be just as reasonable to assume
that 1 in a trillion(10^12), 1 in a billion (10^9) or even one in a
million (10^6) has the desired characteristics.  Actually, the evidence
we have points in this direction.  For example, examination of hemoglobins
of different species shows that only 7 out of a total of 140 sites
always has the same amino acid (Perutz, 1968 [*Nature*, Vol. 219, p. 902]).
The probability of these 7 sites being correctly occupied, assuming again
20 different amino acids, is 1 in a little over a billion (1.3x10^9)."

>> Again, why is the burden of proof laid on creationists?  They have to
>> prove that any conceivable mechanism (life precursors) did not exist.

Coppedge's calculation is based on an unreasonable
model of how life might have come into existence, a model that ignores
the possiblilty of life precursors, which are generally believed by
scientists to have been necessary.  If Brown wants to maintain that
Coppedge's calculation "proves" life could not have formed abiogenetically,
it is up to him to show that the normal assumptions scientists make
are untenable.  Otherwise there is no valid proof.

>> Creationists are often belittled because they believe in a Creator and
>> search for scientific evidence to support that belief.  This is supposed
>> to show their inherent narrow mindedness and a great hinderance
>> to their meaningful contribution to science.  I see buried in this attitude
>> the assumption that atheistic presuppositions are inherently superior
>> and more objective than theistic ones.  One who studies origins with
>> the idea that a creator is responsible is being narrow minded while
>> one who studies it under the conviction that there is no God behind
>> it all is not.  I don't get it.  Has God been proven not to exist so as
>> to make those who believe in his existence foolish and narrow minded?
>> Why is scientific research to support non-theistic conclustions justified
>> and research to support theistic conclusions mocked?

Paul, I hope that you are not implying that every scientist who
believes in abiogenesis or evolution is an atheist.  If so, it will
be my turn to have hurt feelings.   I see no problem whatever in the idea
that the Creator endowed our universe with physical laws that allow 
life to form abiogenetically and with reasonably high probability.  
I find it much harder to believe that God created the universe and all
species a mere 10,000 years ago, and then (I would have to say maliciously)
left us with an overwhelming amount of evidence that the universe is
15 billion years old, and that abiogenesis and evolution have occurred.

My father, who was trained as a biochemist before he entered the ministry,
has pointed out to me on many occasions that science can neither prove nor
disprove the existence of God.  The task of science, as I see it, is
to understand the physical laws of the universe and to explain the
diverse phenomena we see in accordance with that understanding.  It is 
not in the spirit of science to explain phenomenona that we do not 
understand at a particular time by appealing to special intervention 
by the Creator.

Of course, everyone has the right to *believe* anything he or she wishes.
What they do not have the right to do is to teach religious beliefs
*as science* in the public schools.  If they object to their children
being taught certain things in school, it is their duty to teach their
their own beliefs at home or in their religious organizations.  But 
KEEP IT OUT OF THE PUBLIC SCHOOLS!
-- 

	Bill Jefferys  8-%
	Astronomy Dept, University of Texas, Austin TX 78712   (USnail)
	{ihnp4,kpno,ctvax}!ut-sally!utastro!bill   (uucp)
	utastro!bill@ut-ngp			   (ARPANET)