suhina@kodak.UUCP (brian suhina) (01/15/86)
The Jan. 12, 1986 edition of the Rochester (N.Y.) DEMOCRAT AND CHRONICLE had an interesting article on the odds of winning one of these current sweepstakes. The article was written by William P. Barrett of the DALLAS TIMES HERALD. The information comes from the disclosers New York requires. The current "Publishers Clearing House" $10 million contest has odds against winning that are 427,600,000 to 1 (that's right, I typed the correct number of zeros). Also only $1 million is guaranteed and the winner will not be chosen for two years. The $10 million will be awarded only if a preselected entry is returned by an early deadline. He quotes a return rate of approx. 20% of their entries."Readers Digest" has a contest on now with a $5 million guaranteed top prize with odds against winning that are 180,000,000 to 1. The worst contest is a separate one by "Publishers Clearing House" that has a $2 million dollar top prize and odds of 468,625,000 to 1 against winning. Is this what Jimmy the Greek calls long odds?
scott@hou2g.UUCP (Mr. Berry) (01/18/86)
Are these outfits (Publisher's Clearinghouse, et al) sending these entries to countries other than the US? And do they award the prize to someone else if the "pre-selected" numbers are not sent in? If so, show me how, with a 20% return rate for entries, and less than 200,000,000 households in the country, the odds can be any worse than 40,000,000 to 1. ========================================= "How is this place run? Is it an anarchy?" "No, I wouldn't say so--it's not that well organized." Scott J. Berry ihnp4!hou2g!scott
msb@lsuc.UUCP (Mark Brader) (01/18/86)
> ... The article was written by William P. Barrett of the DALLAS > TIMES HERALD. The information comes from the disclosers New York requires. > The current "Publishers Clearing House" $10 million contest has odds against > winning that are 427,600,000 to 1 (that's right, I typed the correct > number of zeros). How exactly are these odds computed? Extrapolating from data in the 1985 World Almanac, I get that there are just under 100,000,000 households in the US and Canada. So is it a 1/427M chance of a particular mailing causing you to win, and they send an average of 4.27 mailings to each household(!)? Or do they actually "work" foreign countries as well? Mark Brader
boucher@hsi.UUCP (Keith Boucher) (01/19/86)
> Are these outfits (Publisher's Clearinghouse, et al) sending > these entries to countries other than the US? And do they > award the prize to someone else if the "pre-selected" numbers > are not sent in? > > If so, show me how, with a 20% return rate for entries, and > less than 200,000,000 households in the country, the odds can > be any worse than 40,000,000 to 1. > > ========================================= I don't know anything about foreign countries but they claim to award all prizes. They send more than one entry to some households however. We got five entries at my house between myself and my wife. Our names must be on quite a few mailing lists. This is probably the norm rather than the exception. Sometimes I enter and other times I don't bother. My wife did order a magazine subscription last year through Publishers Clearing House and I don't see how it is a better deal than dealing with the magazine directly. I am not impressed with their rates. I would prefer to deal directly with the magazine and cut out the middleman. If there was a substantial discount then I would consider dealing with PCH. Keith Boucher HSI New Haven, CT
rt@cpsc53.UUCP (Ron Thompson) (01/20/86)
> > ... The article was written by William P. Barrett of the DALLAS > > TIMES HERALD. The information comes from the disclosers New York requires. > > The current "Publishers Clearing House" $10 million contest has odds against > > winning that are 427,600,000 to 1 (that's right, I typed the correct > > number of zeros). > > How exactly are these odds computed? Extrapolating from data in the > 1985 World Almanac, I get that there are just under 100,000,000 households > in the US and Canada. So is it a 1/427M chance of a particular mailing > causing you to win, and they send an average of 4.27 mailings to each > household(!)? Or do they actually "work" foreign countries as well? > I'm sure they must figure multiple mailings. The Reader's Digest, for instance, has sent me three solicitations each for different merchandise and yet all for the same contest money on several occaisons. -- Ron Thompson AT&T Information Systems Customer Programming (404) 982-4217 Atlanta, Georgia Services Center ..{ihnp4,akgua}!cpsc53!rt (Opinions expressed are mine alone.)
ayers@convexs.UUCP (01/20/86)
>If so, show me how, with a 20% return rate for entries, and >less than 200,000,000 households in the country, the odds can >be any worse than 40,000,000 to 1. Being in Dallas, I also read the article claiming 1/2 BILLION to 1 odds (but remembered it with 3 less zeros -- however, the poster was probably right; my memory is not what I used to think it was...). The article writer listed sources for the figures, so that anyone could double-check. As for the "less than 200 million households" question, I have (so far) received almost a dozen entries from Eddie's little promotion. (At the office, at my business P.O., and my personal P.O. -- If I accepted mail at home, it would be even more.) Because my name is listed with various groups (magazines, state and federal licensing agencies, etc), and not always in the same manner (First name alone, First name misspelled, First name and Middle initial, First and Middle initial, etc), I show up on the lists many times. That, BTW, is not counting the entries that have appeared for my SO, my son, and my mother (who sometimes gets mail at my P.O.). Nor does it count the number of entries received that were addressed to "MR. HANDMADE BY BLUES, II" (the name of my business). Now, I don't send in this stuff, but if people did, it seems that they'd be likely to send in _all_ the ones they received, under whatever name, in order to increase their odds... [just a thought] blues, II
45223wc@mtuxo.UUCP (w.cambre) (01/20/86)
No one said each household could only enter once. There are usually several mailings for each 'giveaway', so people enter many times.
jao@valid.UUCP (John Oswalt) (01/21/86)
> Are these outfits (Publisher's Clearinghouse, et al) sending > these entries to countries other than the US? And do they > award the prize to someone else if the "pre-selected" numbers > are not sent in? > > If so, show me how, with a 20% return rate for entries, and > less than 200,000,000 households in the country, the odds can > be any worse than 40,000,000 to 1. We have received seven (7) Publisher's Clearing House sweepstakes envelopes at my house (household size two), and I have received three more at my parents' house, where I haven't lived for ten years! -- John Oswalt (..!{hplabs,amd,pyramid,ihnp4}!pesnta!valid!jao)
msb@lsuc.UUCP (Mark Brader) (01/25/86)
> > > The current "Publishers Clearing House" $10 million contest has odds against > > > winning that are 427,600,000 to 1 (that's right, I typed the correct > > > number of zeros). > > > > How exactly are these odds computed? Extrapolating from data in the > > 1985 World Almanac, I get that there are just under 100,000,000 households > > in the US and Canada. So is it a 1/427M chance of a particular mailing > > causing you to win, and they send an average of 4.27 mailings to each > > household(!)? Or do they actually "work" foreign countries as well? > > > I'm sure they must figure multiple mailings. The Reader's Digest, for instance, > has sent me three solicitations each for different merchandise and yet all > for the same contest money on several occaisons. So, then, a person CAN have better than 1/427M chance of winning by sending in ALL the entries. If they think it's worth the postage. Mark Brader