marvit@hplabsb.UUCP (Peter Marvit) (07/07/86)
According to the world population watchers at the United Nations, today (7 July) the 5 billionth person will be born. Peter Marvit ARPA: marvit@hplabs.hp.com HP Labs uucp: ...!hplabs!marvit
michaelm@bcsaic.UUCP (07/10/86)
In article <3553@hplabsb.UUCP> marvit@hplabsb.UUCP (Peter Marvit) writes: >According to the world population watchers at the United Nations, today >(7 July) the 5 billionth person will be born. Something I've always wondered: of all the people who've ever lived, what percentage are alive today? I suspect it's a rather large percentage, and it makes me wonder why there aren't more people like Plato, Galileo, Michaelangelo, Bach, Einstein. (Or, heaven help us, more like Genghis Khan, Hitler, Alexander, Attila the Hun, etc.) We seem to be lacking in "greats" (except here on usnet, of course :-). Any thoughts? Or flames about improper newsgroups? (It's all Peter Marvit's fault, of course :-) -- Mike Maxwell Boeing Artificial Intelligence Center ...uw-beaver!uw-june!bcsaic!michaelm
phil@amdcad.UUCP (Phil Ngai) (07/14/86)
In article <599@bcsaic.UUCP> michaelm@bcsaic.UUCP (michael maxwell) writes: >it makes me wonder why there aren't more people like >Plato, Galileo, Michaelangelo, Bach, Einstein. (Or, heaven help us, >more like Genghis Khan, Hitler, Alexander, Attila the Hun, etc.) I nominate Donald Knuth of Stanford. Watson and Crick (sp?) who discovered the structure of DNA. I don't know of any current music or art of lasting value, however. -- Why did VD become STDs? Phil Ngai +1 408 749 5720 UUCP: {ucbvax,decwrl,ihnp4,allegra}!amdcad!phil ARPA: amdcad!phil@decwrl.dec.com
steves@tektools.UUCP (steve shellans) (07/14/86)
>>According to the world population watchers at the United Nations, today >>(7 July) the 5 billionth person will be born. > >Something I've always wondered: of all the people who've ever lived, >what percentage are alive today? I suspect it's a rather large >percentage, and it makes me wonder why there aren't more people like >... I once read that there are more people alive than dead. In other words, there are more people walking around today than all the people who lived previously. I cannot vouch for the truth of this statement, and I'm sorry that I don't remember the source. However, it should be possible to figure out. Several years ago, Scientific American published an article about the population of the world since prehistoric times. On one page they had a graph of this. As I recall (dimly), it appeared to be an exponential curve except for a sharp retrenchment at the time of the black death (~1400 ??). By making some assumptions about life spans down through the ages, it should be possible, using figures from that graph, to calculate the number of people who have lived up to any point in history. Of course, that graph was based on some assumptions, but it still sounds like an interesting study if anybody wanted to track down that article. Steve Shellans Tektronix, Beaverton OR {decvax, wyvax, ihnp4}!tektronix!tektools!steves
rob@dadla.UUCP (Rob Vetter) (07/14/86)
In article <599@bcsaic.UUCP> michaelm@bcsaic.UUCP (michael maxwell) writes: >In article <3553@hplabsb.UUCP> marvit@hplabsb.UUCP (Peter Marvit) writes: >>According to the world population watchers at the United Nations, today >>(7 July) the 5 billionth person will be born. > >Something I've always wondered: of all the people who've ever lived, >what percentage are alive today? I suspect it's a rather large >percentage, and it makes me wonder why there aren't more people like >Plato, Galileo, Michaelangelo, Bach, Einstein. (Or, heaven help us, >more like Genghis Khan, Hitler, Alexander, Attila the Hun, etc.) >We seem to be lacking in "greats" (except here on usnet, of course :-). >Any thoughts? Or flames about improper newsgroups? (It's all Peter >Marvit's fault, of course :-) We have them !!! Lee Iococca (sp?) in business, Ronald Reagan in acting, Mother Theresa, Paul McCartney, Dan Rather, and yes, Mummar Khadafi and Khomeini. The people you are talking about are those which in some way go beyond the abilities (for good OR evil) of the norm in the human race. I think that we have more of these hyper-achievers living now, and that there are many that we don't think about daily, but could agree that they are great (wo)men. As for lasting effect on history, it's harder for one human to affect the lives of all others now. There are alot more people to affect. (Are we now looking for hyper-hyper-achievers ??). History will STILL show that we had our fair share (relative to population) of hyper-achievers. One final note: no two other people on the list lived as con- currently as Hitler and Einstein. We will see more of the same from the 5 Bil. alive in the SECOND half of the 20th century. -- Rob Vetter (503) 629-1044 [ihnp4, ucbvax, decvax, uw-beaver]!tektronix!dadla!rob " " !psu-cs!vetterr "Waste is a terrible thing to mind" - NRC (Well, they COULD have said it)
werner@aecom.UUCP (Craig Werner) (07/15/86)
> In article <3553@hplabsb.UUCP> marvit@hplabsb.UUCP (Peter Marvit) writes: > >According to the world population watchers at the United Nations, today > >(7 July) the 5 billionth person will be born. Actually, the United Nations does not expect the 5th millionth person to be born until sometime in March. The US Census only pins itself down 4th quarter 1986/1st quarter 1987. It was an independent organization, (I know I got this wrong, I can't find the clipping) The World Population Institute, that issued the prediction for last week. The data is not exactly the most complete in the world (no pun intended). They may be right. Anyway, since it is exponential growth, roughly 1/2 of all people who have ever lived, are currently living. Still, to put it into another perspective: if one could populate New Jersey to the density of Manhattan Island, one would have about 4.5 Billion people living there. The problem is that the 5 Billionth child will probably be born into a poor rural family in Asia or Africa, not in New Jersey. -- Craig Werner (MD/PhD '91) !philabs!aecom!werner (1935-14E Eastchester Rd., Bronx NY 10461, 212-931-2517) "Time flies when you're streaking out N. gonorrheae."
cipher@mmm.UUCP (Andre Guirard) (07/15/86)
In article <12305@amdcad.UUCP> phil@amdcad.UUCP (Phil Ngai) writes: >In article <599@bcsaic.UUCP> michaelm@bcsaic.UUCP (michael maxwell) writes: >>it makes me wonder why there aren't more people like >>Plato, Galileo, Michaelangelo, Bach, Einstein. (Or, heaven help us, >>more like Genghis Khan, Hitler, Alexander, Attila the Hun, etc.) > >I nominate Donald Knuth of Stanford. Watson and Crick (sp?) who >discovered the structure of DNA. I don't know of any current music or >art of lasting value, however. Well, I don't know about that! Probably there _are_ people alive today, many people, whom the future will regard as geniuses (if any historical record of this time survives). But geniuses tend not to be recognized in their own time, so we don't know who they are yet. To discover whether something is of lasting value, it is usually necessary to wait 50 or 100 years and see if it's still valuable. If just anyone (Phil Ngai, for instance) could tell, then we would _all_ be geniuses, wouldn't we? -- /'C`\ TWALG ASHALC RITMOHF. Andre Guirard ( o_o ) Botoj de timeco )) _ (( AWSWG SWVVG BWSWBSWH! ihnp4!mmm!cipher /// \\\
stirling@fortune.UUCP (Patrick Stirling) (07/15/86)
In article <599@bcsaic.UUCP> michaelm@bcsaic.UUCP (michael maxwell) writes: >In article <3553@hplabsb.UUCP> marvit@hplabsb.UUCP (Peter Marvit) writes: >>According to the world population watchers at the United Nations, today >>(7 July) the 5 billionth person will be born. > >Something I've always wondered: of all the people who've ever lived, >what percentage are alive today? I suspect it's a rather large >percentage, and it makes me wonder why there aren't more people like >Plato, Galileo, Michaelangelo, Bach, Einstein. >Mike Maxwell I remember reading about 10 years ago, when the world population was around 4bn, that the dead outnumbered the living about 30 to one. Actually it shouldn't be too hard to come up with an estimate; I think the world pop. was pretty levelor at least increasing very slowly until the 20th Century. If humans have been around for about 1,000,000 years, average lifespan ~25-35 years maybe, average generation about the same, all we need is an average population up to 1900 (1billion?) and some net.statistics.wizard should be able to supply an answer ... any takers? About the rate of appearance of 'geniuses' ... I suspect that several factors have to be present and correct for one to occur, for example there wer several during the renaissance, and many from ancient Greece. It must be more than statistical chance. patrick {ihnp4, hplabs, amdcad, ucbvax!dual}!fortune!stirling
jcz@sas.UUCP (Carl Zeigler) (07/16/86)
In article <12305@amdcad.UUCP>, phil@amdcad.UUCP writes: > In article <599@bcsaic.UUCP> michaelm@bcsaic.UUCP (michael maxwell) writes: > >it makes me wonder why there aren't more people like > >Plato, Galileo, Michaelangelo, Bach, Einstein. (Or, heaven help us, > >more like Genghis Khan, Hitler, Alexander, Attila the Hun, etc.) > > I nominate Donald Knuth of Stanford. Watson and Crick (sp?) who > discovered the structure of DNA. I don't know of any current music or > art of lasting value, however. > -- I would say that there are a porportionate number of 'great persons' in the world today. However, there are lots of them, so they don't seem so great, and many of them are too weak from hunger to exhibit their greatness.
jtk@mordor.ARPA (Jordan Kare) (07/16/86)
In article <1262@tektools.UUCP> steves@tektools.UUCP (steve shellans) writes: >>>According to the world population watchers at the United Nations, today >>>(7 July) the 5 billionth person will be born. > >As I recall (dimly), [the population curve] >appeared to be an exponential curve except for >a sharp retrenchment at the time of the black death (~1400 ??). The world population is rising faster than exponentially. The "doubling time" is constant for an exponential, and decreasing for population; I believe it is currently around 30 years. The best fit (in simple functions) to the population curve is an inverse function, slightly more complicated than (but very similar to) 1/(t0 - t). Note that this function goes to infinity at t = t0. As I recall, t0 is sometime in the early 2100's.... (frighteningly, no more than 1/2 :-)) Jordin Kare
phil@amdcad.UUCP (Phil Ngai) (07/17/86)
In article <1021@mmm.UUCP> cipher@mmm.UUCP (Andre Guirard) writes: >Probably there _are_ people alive today, many people, whom the future will >regard as geniuses (if any historical record of this time survives). But >geniuses tend not to be recognized in their own time, so we don't know >who they are yet. To discover whether something is of lasting value, >it is usually necessary to wait 50 or 100 years and see if it's still >valuable. If just anyone (Phil Ngai, for instance) could tell, then we >would _all_ be geniuses, wouldn't we? I don't think it takes a genius to recognize the work of a genius. The invention of the light bulb, telephone, transistors and molecular biology all seem obviously great developments. -- The US Army uses 22 caliber size bullets in their assault rifles (M-16). Phil Ngai +1 408 749 5720 UUCP: {ucbvax,decwrl,ihnp4,allegra}!amdcad!phil ARPA: amdcad!phil@decwrl.dec.com
blake@sx7000.UUCP (Chris Blake) (07/17/86)
> Something I've always wondered: of all the people who've ever lived, > what percentage are alive today? I suspect it's a rather large > percentage, and it makes me wonder why there aren't more people like > Plato, Galileo, Michaelangelo, Bach, Einstein. (Or, heaven help us, > more like Genghis Khan, Hitler, Alexander, Attila the Hun, etc.) > We seem to be lacking in "greats" (except here on usnet, of course :-). Perhaps theyre around, but it's harder to get recognized among the giant population. Also, a lot of people don't become "great" until they're dead ( need to view them in retrospect ). Another reason may be that today's innovators/greats, instead of broadcasting they're achievements to the world for lots of fame but limited renumeration, are selling them to companies and not receiving the noteriety of others. Modern greats Id like to nominate: The Beatles ( still popular after 20 years ) and Grant Tinker. -Spunk -- -------------------------- Christopher L Blake -- @ Sperry's SX1100 group -- Roseville, MN -- --------------------------