[net.sport.hoops] NCAA Tournament Selection prediction

mannie@msdc.UUCP (Mannie Lowe) (02/28/86)

Here are my predictions of who will be chosen by the NCAA Selection
Committee to play in the 1986 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament
(how's that for a nice long title).

(NOTE: Records are as of Tuesday, Feb 25 and come from USAToday of the 26th.
I apologize for getting a couple of teams out of there conference order)

 1. Duke            27-2   ACC           33. Cleveland St      23-3   MidCont
 2. N. Carolina     25-3   ACC           34. N.C. A&T          19-7   MEAC
 3. Georgia Tech    21-4   ACC           35. Xavier            22-4   Midwestern
 4. Virginia        21-4   ACC           36. Bradley           28-1   Mo Valley
 5. N.C. State      18-9   ACC           37. Tulsa             19-8   Mo Valley
 6. St. Josephs     22-5   Atl10         38. Akron             20-7   Ohio Val
 7. W. Virginia     20-9   Atl10         39. Mid Tenn St       20-9   Ohio Val
 8. Temple          23-4   Atl10         40. Nevada-LasVegas   27-3   PCAA
 9. Syracuse        22-3   BEast         41. Arizona           20-7   Pac10
10. St. Johns       25-4   BEast         42. Washington        17-9   Pac10
11. Georgetown      20-6   BEast         43. Tenn-Chattanooga  19-8   Southern
12. Kansas          27-3   Big8          44. Marshall          19-10  Southern
13. Oklahoma        23-6   Big8          45. McNeese St        18-8   Southland
14. Montana         19-8   BigSky        46. Kentucky          24-3   SEC
15. N. Arizona      18-7   BigSky        47. Alabama           19-6   SEC
16. Michigan        23-4   Big10         48. L.S.U.            21-8   SEC
17. Indiana         18-6   Big10         49. Auburn            17-9   SEC
18. Purdue          21-7   Big10         50. T.C.U.            20-5   SWC
19. Michigan St     18-6   Big10         51. Texas             17-9   SWC
20. Navy            23-4   Colonial      52. Southern          18-6   Southwstrn
21. Richmond        22-4   Colonial      53. Old Dominion      21-6   SunBelt
22. Drexel          16-11  EastCst       54. W. Kentucky       21-6   SunBelt
23. F.Dickenson     17-7   ECACMet       55. Ala-Birmingham    22-9   SunBelt
24. Northeastern    21-4   ECACNAtl      56. Villanova         19-12  BEast
25. Canisius        19-7   ECACNAtl      57. Arkansas-L.R.     19-10  TAAC
26. Cornell         14-10  Ivy           58. Pepperdine        22-4   WAC
27. Memphis St      24-3   Metro         59. Texas-El Paso     22-5   WAC
28. Louisville      22-7   Metro         60. Notre Dame        19-5   Ind.
29. Virginia Tech   21-7   Metro         61. Chicago St        21-6   Ind.
30. Fairfield       21-6   MetAtl        62. Utah              18-8   WAC
31. Miami, Ohio     21-5   MidAmer       63. Pan American      19-7   Ind.
32. Ohio Univ       19-6   MidAmer       64. E Washington      19-8   Ind.

On the Fence
------------
Maryland (15-12 ACC); Clemson (17-11 ACC); Pittsburgh (15-11 BEast); 
Iowa St (17-8 Big8); Missouri (19-12 Big8); Illinois (18-8 Big8);
Iowa (18-9 Big10); Cal-Irvine (15-10 PCAA); New Mexico St (16-9 PCAA);
Davidson (17-10 Southern); Florida (14-11 SEC); Georgia (14-11 SEC);
Texas A&M (16-10 SWC); SMU (16-9 SWC); Loyola Marymount (17-8 WCAC);
Marquette (16-8 Ind); New Orleans (16-8 Ind); Wyoming (17-9 WAC);
N.E. Louisiana (17-9 Southland); Jacksonville (18-9 SunBelt)

Number one seeds (I really selected them before Dick Vitale did)
----------------
East - North Carolina        Southeast - Duke
Mid West - Kansas            West - Georgia Tech

I really hope that I picked at least 80% (51 teams) correctly.  Let us know
what you think about it.

Just for argument sake, here are the number of teams selected from each
conference.  The number in parenthesis is the number of teams on the fence.

ACC        5 (2)             PCAA       1 (2)
BEast      4 (1)             Southld    1 (1)
Big 10     4 (2)             WCAC       1 (1)
SEC        4 (2)             ECAC Met   1 (0)
Ind        4 (2)             Ivy        1 (0)
Sun Belt   3 (1)             Met Atl    1 (0)
Atl 10     3 (0)             Mid Cont   1 (0)
Metro      3 (0)             MEAC       1 (0)
Big 8      2 (2)             Midwestern 1 (0)
SWC        2 (2)             Southwstrn 1 (0)
Southern   2 (1)             TAAC       1 (0)
WAC        2 (1)             EastCst    1 (0)
Big Sky    2 (0)
Colonial   2 (0)
ECACNAtl   2 (0)
MidAmer    2 (0)
Mo Val     2 (0)
Ohio Val   2 (0)
Pac 10     2 (0)

So there you have it.  What do y'all think??

Mannie Lowe
Medical Systems Development Corp
{gatech,ihnp4,mcnc,akgua}!msdc!mannie

wiso@ihwpt.UUCP (Jack Wisowaty) (02/28/86)

> Here are my predictions of who will be chosen by the NCAA Selection
> Committee to play in the 1986 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament
> (how's that for a nice long title).
> 
> (NOTE: Records are as of Tuesday, Feb 25 and come from USAToday of the 26th.
> I apologize for getting a couple of teams out of there conference order)
> 
>  1. Duke            27-2   ACC           33. Cleveland St      23-3   MidCont
>  2. N. Carolina     25-3   ACC           34. N.C. A&T          19-7   MEAC
>  3. Georgia Tech    21-4   ACC           35. Xavier            22-4   Midwstrn
>  4. Virginia        21-4   ACC           36. Bradley           28-1   Mo Val
>  5. N.C. State      18-9   ACC           37. Tulsa             19-8   Mo Val
>  6. St. Josephs     22-5   Atl10         38. Akron             20-7   Ohio Val
>  7. W. Virginia     20-9   Atl10         39. Mid Tenn St       20-9   Ohio Val
>  8. Temple          23-4   Atl10         40. Nevada-LasVegas   27-3   PCAA
>  9. Syracuse        22-3   BEast         41. Arizona           20-7   Pac10
> 10. St. Johns       25-4   BEast         42. Washington        17-9   Pac10
> 11. Georgetown      20-6   BEast         43. Tenn-Chattanooga  19-8   Southern
> 12. Kansas          27-3   Big8          44. Marshall          19-10  Southern
> 13. Oklahoma        23-6   Big8          45. McNeese St        18-8   Southlnd
> 14. Montana         19-8   BigSky        46. Kentucky          24-3   SEC
> 15. N. Arizona      18-7   BigSky        47. Alabama           19-6   SEC
> 16. Michigan        23-4   Big10         48. L.S.U.            21-8   SEC
> 17. Indiana         18-6   Big10         49. Auburn            17-9   SEC
> 18. Purdue          21-7   Big10         50. T.C.U.            20-5   SWC
> 19. Michigan St     18-6   Big10         51. Texas             17-9   SWC
> 20. Navy            23-4   Colonial      52. Southern          18-6   Sowstrn
> 21. Richmond        22-4   Colonial      53. Old Dominion      21-6   SunBelt
> 22. Drexel          16-11  EastCst       54. W. Kentucky       21-6   SunBelt
> 23. F.Dickenson     17-7   ECACMet       55. Ala-Birmingham    22-9   SunBelt
> 24. Northeastern    21-4   ECACNAtl      56. Villanova         19-12  BEast
> 25. Canisius        19-7   ECACNAtl      57. Arkansas-L.R.     19-10  TAAC
> 26. Cornell         14-10  Ivy           58. Pepperdine        22-4   WAC
> 27. Memphis St      24-3   Metro         59. Texas-El Paso     22-5   WAC
> 28. Louisville      22-7   Metro         60. Notre Dame        19-5   Ind.
> 29. Virginia Tech   21-7   Metro         61. Chicago St        21-6   Ind.
> 30. Fairfield       21-6   MetAtl        62. Utah              18-8   WAC
> 31. Miami, Ohio     21-5   MidAmer       63. Pan American      19-7   Ind.
> 32. Ohio Univ       19-6   MidAmer       64. E Washington      19-8   Ind.
> 
> On the Fence
> ------------
> Maryland (15-12 ACC); Clemson (17-11 ACC); Pittsburgh (15-11 BEast); 
> Iowa St (17-8 Big8); Missouri (19-12 Big8); Illinois (18-8 Big8);
> Iowa (18-9 Big10); Cal-Irvine (15-10 PCAA); New Mexico St (16-9 PCAA);
> Davidson (17-10 Southern); Florida (14-11 SEC); Georgia (14-11 SEC);
> Texas A&M (16-10 SWC); SMU (16-9 SWC); Loyola Marymount (17-8 WCAC);
> Marquette (16-8 Ind); New Orleans (16-8 Ind); Wyoming (17-9 WAC);
> N.E. Louisiana (17-9 Southland); Jacksonville (18-9 SunBelt)
> 
> Number one seeds (I really selected them before Dick Vitale did)
> ----------------
> East - North Carolina        Southeast - Duke
> Mid West - Kansas            West - Georgia Tech
> 
> ACC        5 (2)             PCAA       1 (2)
> BEast      4 (1)             Southld    1 (1)
> Big 10     4 (2)             WCAC       1 (1)
> SEC        4 (2)             ECAC Met   1 (0)
> Ind        4 (2)             Ivy        1 (0)
> Sun Belt   3 (1)             Met Atl    1 (0)
> Atl 10     3 (0)             Mid Cont   1 (0)
> Metro      3 (0)             MEAC       1 (0)
> Big 8      2 (2)             Midwestern 1 (0)
> SWC        2 (2)             Southwstrn 1 (0)
> Southern   2 (1)             TAAC       1 (0)
> WAC        2 (1)             EastCst    1 (0)
> Big Sky    2 (0)
> Colonial   2 (0)
> ECACNAtl   2 (0)
> MidAmer    2 (0)
> Mo Val     2 (0)
> Ohio Val   2 (0)
> Pac 10     2 (0)

You really seem to be a torchbearer for the underdog.  The NCAA committee
rarely selects more than the conference champion from the various smaller
conferences, and unknown independents almost never get in (just ask Loyola
over the past few years).  Therefore I have to question some of your
selections, primarily:

Northeastern (21-4) and Canisius (19-7)
Tennessee-Chatt (19-8) and Marshall (19-10)
Akron (20-7) and Mid-Tennessee (20-9)
Montana (19-8) and N.Arizona (18-7)

I think only Northeastern could possibly get a bid without winning their
conference title.

Chicago St. (21-6)
Pan American (19-7)
E.Washington (19-8)

I would be absolutely amazed if any of these three get a bid.  My hunch is
that all of them won't even make the NIT.

That opens up 6 or 7 spots that I think will be filled by (in order of my
confidence in the bid):

Iowa St.
Illinois
Maryland or Clemson (whoever does better in the ACC tournament)
Marquette
SMU
Missouri
Wyoming

What do other people think?

Jack Wisowaty
AT&T Bell Laboratories

smithrd@gc49.UUCP (Randy D. Smith) (03/01/86)

In article <735@ihwpt.UUCP> wiso@ihwpt.UUCP (Jack Wisowaty) writes:
>What do other people think?
>
>Jack Wisowaty
>AT&T Bell Laboratories

I think YOU INCLUDE TOO MUCH VERBIAGE FROM ARTICLES YOU ARE RESPONDING
TOO!!!!!!!!!  (See how I used my editor and deleted the 100 or so lines
you couldn't seem to do without???)

Okay, I've calmed down; now for what I really think:
I too feel the original poster was too gracious to the "minor leagues".
In particular, I think that to include some of those other schools at
the expense of Maryland would be a travesty.  (And you don't know just
how much I "hate" Maryland and Wrongy Driesel (or whatever his name is
this season) :-)

One other thing REALLY bothers me about this posting, and other recent
postings--was it just my imagination, or didn't the NIT become a PRESEASON
tournament this year???  Didn't Duke (ugh, talk about schools you "hate")
win it this year??  Isn't it going to continue as a preseason tournament??
So, LET'S DROP THIS "THEY'LL MAKE THE NIT" GARBAGE!

(Please note that the use of the word "hate" in this message is intended
as "dislike in a normal manner befitting a conference rival", and is
not meant as the normal usage of the word.  I try to teach my kids not to
hate anything, except perhaps N.C.State :-) )

(And in case it's not obvious from the previous-- GGOOOOO HHHEEEEEEEEELLLS!)
-- 
				Randy D. Smith	(919) 279-5312
			AT&T Technologies, Guilford Center, NC
			....!{ihnp4,burl}!{gc49,gc3ba}!smithrd

ins_asac@jhunix.UUCP (Stephan Alexa Cooper) (03/03/86)

In article <226@gc49.UUCP> smithrd@gc49.UUCP (Randy D. Smith) writes:
>
>Okay, I've calmed down; now for what I really think:
>I too feel the original poster was too gracious to the "minor leagues".
>In particular, I think that to include some of those other schools at
>the expense of Maryland would be a travesty.  (And you don't know just
>how much I "hate" Maryland and Wrongy Driesel (or whatever his name is
>this season) :-)

I think Maryland has a good chance, although not quite as strong of an
arguement as Lefty would like you to believe

>One other thing REALLY bothers me about this posting, and other recent
>postings--was it just my imagination, or didn't the NIT become a PRESEASON
>tournament this year???  Didn't Duke (ugh, talk about schools you "hate")
>win it this year??  Isn't it going to continue as a preseason tournament??
>So, LET'S DROP THIS "THEY'LL MAKE THE NIT" GARBAGE!

I believe the NIT is a preseason, and will ALSO be a postseason tourney
this year.  

For the record, to me it doesn't matter who goes, but I think the ACC
is going to come away with the championship.  Too bad, too cause I
despise UNC, Duke, and Ga Tech.

-- 
-----
	Steve Cooper
	Johns Hopkins University
	...!seismo!umcp-cs!jhunix!ins_asac
-----

wiso@ihwpt.UUCP (Jack Wisowaty) (03/03/86)

> In article <735@ihwpt.UUCP> wiso@ihwpt.UUCP (Jack Wisowaty) writes:
> >What do other people think?
> >
> >Jack Wisowaty
> >AT&T Bell Laboratories
> 
> I think YOU INCLUDE TOO MUCH VERBIAGE FROM ARTICLES YOU ARE RESPONDING
> TOO!!!!!!!!!  (See how I used my editor and deleted the 100 or so lines
> you couldn't seem to do without???)
> 
> One other thing REALLY bothers me about this posting, and other recent
> postings--was it just my imagination, or didn't the NIT become a PRESEASON
> tournament this year???  Didn't Duke (ugh, talk about schools you "hate")
> win it this year??  Isn't it going to continue as a preseason tournament??
> So, LET'S DROP THIS "THEY'LL MAKE THE NIT" GARBAGE!
> 
> 				Randy D. Smith	(919) 279-5312
> 			AT&T Technologies, Guilford Center, NC
> 			....!{ihnp4,burl}!{gc49,gc3ba}!smithrd

Speaking of too much verbiage, how about too much uninformed verbiage.  The
NIT this year (and for years to come if it remains lucrative) is holding
two tournaments.  The post-season tournament will have the same format that
it has had in the recent past.  But if the TarHeels aren't in it, it
probably isn't worth talking about anyway.-)

Jack Wisowaty
AT&T Bell Labs

m113aw@brahms.BERKELEY.EDU (Ariel Mazzarelli) (03/05/86)

>One other thing REALLY bothers me about this posting, and other recent
>postings--was it just my imagination, or didn't the NIT become a PRESEASON
>tournament this year???  Didn't Duke (ugh, talk about schools you "hate")
>win it this year??  Isn't it going to continue as a preseason tournament??
>So, LET'S DROP THIS "THEY'LL MAKE THE NIT" GARBAGE!
>
>				Randy D. Smith	(919) 279-5312

I believe that the NIT is trying to get some prestige back
by organizing a pre-season tournament (re: no NCAAs to take
all the good teams) as well as a post-season tourney.

But what really ticks me off about these NCAA tournament predictions
is that everybody seems to be forgetting...


		******** THE CAL BEARS !!!!!! ********

A team that was down to USF by three points, with five seconds to go,
missed a FT and still won by one in regulation. The last time the Golden Bears
won as many as 20 games (yes, I think they'll sweep the Washington schools
this weekend), they finished 2nd in the Big One. The year before, they beat
Jerry West and the Big O in the Final Four. Ancient history, you say? Why,
in the evolutionary time scale, 26 years is no longer than the time span 
required to beat UCLA.

At any rate, I know there's an NIT because all the talk around here is
whether we play UCLA at Pauley or whether they come up here in the 1st 
round. 

Ariel Mazzarelli   
I wear loafers so that I don't have to
ask my roommate to tie my shoelaces
----

ma3751ao@unmc.UUCP (T.V.) (03/05/86)

> 26. Cornell         14-10  Ivy           58. Pepperdine        22-4   WAC

Since when did Pepperdine join the WAC???

ma3751ao@unmc.UUCP (T.V.) (03/05/86)

> 
> One other thing REALLY bothers me about this posting, and other recent
> postings--was it just my imagination, or didn't the NIT become a PRESEASON
> tournament this year???  Didn't Duke (ugh, talk about schools you "hate")
> win it this year??  Isn't it going to continue as a preseason tournament??
> So, LET'S DROP THIS "THEY'LL MAKE THE NIT" GARBAGE!
> 

NO NO NO... the NIT *added* a preseason tournament, but is still maintaining
the usual post-season tourny.  

You may reclaim your GARBAGE!

Tim

smithrd@gc49.UUCP (Randy D. Smith) (03/05/86)

In article <12171@ucbvax.BERKELEY.EDU> m113aw@brahms.UUCP (Ariel Mazzarelli) writes:
>At any rate, I know there's an NIT because all the talk around here is
>whether we play UCLA at Pauley or whether they come up here in the 1st 
>round. 
>
>Ariel Mazzarelli   

OOOPPPS!  Sorry about making my own confusion so public!  At least your
posting explains why I hadn't heard anything about the post-season version
of the NIT--all the quality teams from the West are filling up the slots,
leaving the ACC (and lesser conferences) to settle for the lowly NCAAs.

And in case anyone thinks I'm serious about starting an East-vs-West
debate-- :-) :-) etc.

I'm glad to hear the NIT will stick around; the more basketball, the
better.  One question, though-- WHAT ARE WE GOING TO DO AFTER BASKETBALL
SEASON???   ARRRGGGHHHH (I despise baseball!)

(Let's see: ACC tournament; NIT; NCAA; various all star games; NBA playoffs
[yes, I'm that desparate]; then, -sob-, talk about the new recruits and
wait for next October!)
-- 
				Randy D. Smith	(919) 279-5312
			AT&T Technologies, Guilford Center, NC
			....!{ihnp4,burl}!{gc49,gc3ba}!smithrd

ma3751ao@unmc.UUCP (T.V.) (03/06/86)

> 
> I believe that the NIT is trying to get some prestige back
> by organizing a pre-season tournament (re: no NCAAs to take
> all the good teams) as well as a post-season tourney.

This is true, and the money earned by a pre-season tournament may just
allow the NIT to run a respectable, FAIR post season tournament; which has
not been the case in the past. 

> At any rate, I know there's an NIT because all the talk around here is
> whether we play UCLA at Pauley or whether they come up here in the 1st 
> round. 

If things are as they have been in the past, that is *EASY* to predict.
Which one of you will draw more fans?  The NIT post-season has been
plagued with unfair home court advantages in order to
  
    a) make as much money as possible
    b) get BIG-NAME teams in the final to draw a large crowd
       and make even *more* money.

Here at UNM, we have been to the NIT the past two years after being
2nd in the post season tourney, and accumulating 20 win seasons (NCAA?).
Anyway, we have always had the first one or two games here at home 
because of the "PIT", where the '83 NC state miracle happened.  We
average at least 17000 per game.  BUT, once they made their money, it
was time to screw us over because Lord knows we don't want New Mexico
to somehow end up in the finals.  So despite records, off we go to Fresno
State where we lose.  But don't think Fresno was so lucky, no one wants
to see *them* in the final either, so they go to UCLA's Pauley and are
beaten by an eventual Finalist.  Boy, things sure worked out well for
the NIT commitee.  In the past the NIT has ignored season records.  Your
best bet is either to have a big building, or a big name.  My guess is
if we don't make NCAA this year, a very mediocore year, we still may make
NIT because of the "PIT".

One more BUT... This may change because of the pre-season tournament.  If
it makes the NIT money, they may change their ways in post-season.

Tim----------------------------------------------------------------
|   BOLD PREDICTION==> UNM will take the WAC post-season tourny, and
|                      make the NCAA tournament.
|
| I sure miss the good 'ol days w/ Michael Cooper, Norm Ellenburger.. etc.
|