wmartin@brl-tgr.ARPA (Will Martin ) (05/23/85)
Those of us using the shortwave (HF) spectrum over the past few years have seen the solar flux decline and propagation conditions worsen as a result. Some comments in discussions of the sunspot cycle have mentioned fears that this low level is not just the normal trough of an eleven-year cycle, but the beginnings of a longer period of abnormally-low sunspot levels, with concomitant ill effects on our ionosphere. I know there have historically been periods of low sunspots and these have had effects on earth. What is the current astronomical thinking about this prospect? Is it likely that we are entering into an extended period of low sunspot or solar flux numbers? If so, what is predicted for the extent and severity of this decrease? (Or is it unpredictable?) Or is it just a supposition that this is happening, and the odds are in favor of this being just the trough of a regular 11-year cycle, soon to move back up to levels considered "normal" over the observational history? This has immediate economic consequences, in addition to the scientific interest. The glaciers might return, which would lower some property values and raise others. (:-) Also, if shortwave propagation is to continue to be as lousy as it has been recently, there is no reason to sink money into fancy and expensive radios, and we might as well wait for the turn of the century and see what technological marvels have been developed, instead of buying some now and watching them become obsolete while we get minimal usage from them... So, astronomers and solar physicists, what is the answer? What is going to happen on the sun in the next 20 or so years? Regards, Will Martin USENET: seismo!brl-bmd!wmartin or ARPA/MILNET: wmartin@almsa-1.ARPA