ajs@hpfcla.UUCP (09/27/85)
Some interesting extrapolation from a recent AP article... units are
billions of barrels.
360 1/2 of current known oil reserves (the amount in the Middle East)
720 thus, the total known reserves (my guess)
550 USGS estimate of undiscovered reserves
1270 total oil left to use on the planet (my guess)
20 annual worldwide consumption (recently pretty steady)
63.5 thus, years of oil remaining at current rate (my guess)
2048 the year the wells all run dry
The article quoted someone as pointing out that we can expect severe
disruptions long before the oil is completely gone -- maybe within ten
years as consumption increases and production capacity decreases to
the same level. Food for thought...
Alan Silverstein, Hewlett-Packard Fort Collins Systems Division, Colorado
{ihnp4 | hplabs}!hpfcla!ajs, 303-226-3800 x3053, N 40 31'31" W 105 00'43"wjh@bonnie.UUCP (Bill Hery) (10/10/85)
> Some interesting extrapolation from a recent AP article... units are > billions of barrels. > > 360 1/2 of current known oil reserves (the amount in the Middle East) > 720 thus, the total known reserves (my guess) > 550 USGS estimate of undiscovered reserves ^^^ Is this worldwide or just US? Last time I looked at the USGS estimates, they were only doing it for the US. Making estimates like that for the US is somewhat reasonable, because most of the US has been explored enough to have some idea of what might be left to find, and none of it is likely to be in really big fields with the possible exception of Alaska or certain offshore regions. Making estimates like that for the entire world is much more shakey, since there are still vast areas about very little is known, and there is the potential for the equivalent of another Persion Gulf size find in East Asia, Africa or Latin America; or there might be nothing worth producing. Since USGS is the United States Coast and Geodetic Survey, I doubt that they would be looking world wide; the CIA, however, does do some work in the international area. > 1270 total oil left to use on the planet (my guess) > > 20 annual worldwide consumption (recently pretty steady) > > 63.5 thus, years of oil remaining at current rate (my guess) > 2048 the year the wells all run dry > Shakey reasoning, since all but the consumption numbers are very questionable. The more important problem is not how much oil there is world-wide, but how much there is readily available to the US from secure sources. Even today, we import too much oil from foreign sources which could be turned off in an international crisis (such as the 1973 embargo). Combine that with the fact that a sizable amount of our 'domestic' production must go through the Trans Alaska Pipeline, which would be almost impossible to defend against dedicated terrorists, and you can get very nervous. Reagan's dismantling of much of the Department of Energy, particularly those programs dealing with alternative energy sources and conservation, is another case of burying your head in the sand because there is a current (short term) surplus and low prices. We did that in the fifties and sixties, and paid for it in the seventies; when will it happen again?