rjb@akgua.UUCP (R.J. Brown [Bob]) (07/24/84)
In chapter 2 of this discussion :-) I want the world to know that
I did consider the appropriateness of applying A PRIORI probability
to an event (i.e. we who exist) that has already occurred. However,
if we are going to talk about how it all started quantitatively
and you won't let me assume an A PRIORI position in the event
stream then I'd be forced to shut up. [ED. Hmmmm maybe he's got
something there...:-) ]
Another ironic point is that I questioned quantitatively, did not
bring up religion or creation ( other than to cite my sources
of data were not religious), and got accused of promoting creationism.
"We know what you're up to Brown...you crypto-creationist :-)"
Well crypto no more - I am a creationist. SO WHAT ?
My ONE second interval between tries was borrowed and I admit that
it is not well thought out. However, if you get your calculator
out we could try some others.
How about 1 million tries per second ( 1 E+06) for ten Billion
years worth of seconds. (Billions and Billions of Seconds....
Carl Sagan :-) )
In this case:
Ten Billion Years = 10E+09 yrs X 3600 secs/hr X (24 X 365) hrs/yr
Ten Billion Years ~= 3E+17 seconds
Now let's use one million "tries" per second then we come up
with :
3E+17 secs X 1E+06 tries/sec ~= 3E+23 tries in 10 billion years
Comparing this to our original number of 4E+27 we are still four
orders of magnitude off in time. 1 in 10000.
If we move up to a Billion tries per second we are up to the
1 in 10 level after 10 Billion years. A lot better but still not
a good bet when you figure that an insulin-like material is still
only part way to you and me ( and the monkey).
I have been told through the mail that not all the 50% of
the combinations I considered should be included
because they are not likely in the way "nature" is set up. Why?
What I seem to be getting from the flow is "Well Bob the whole shootin'
match is the result of random combinations of molecules but really they
are following a `plan'." This seems to be having your cake and eating
it too.
Also I am told that the process will become self directed at some
point. How? Do watches wind themselves ? Does water run uphill
without a pump ? Sorry Jay Gould (famous author) if I'm a little
slow. You need to punctuate your equilibria a little more slowly :-).
I guess this is kind of a rehash of the Second Law argumentation.
Do many of y'all settle arguments by asking what time it is ?
One criticism is that I am using an old argument. What does the age
of the argument have to do with it ? If you asked "What is the purpose
of man ?" I suppose I could say "Hey Turkey, that's an old question.":-)
****************************
Bob Brown {...ihnp4!akgua!rjb}
AT&T Technologies, Inc.............. Norcross, Ga
(404) 447-3784 ... Cornet 583-3784