ran@ho95b.UUCP (RANeinast) (06/11/85)
> This brings up another problem with the whole paranormal thing. You are > assuming that psychic power (or whatever is going on) is just turned on at > will. In my case, I just had the feeling that I could do it. Why? I don't > know. Oddly enough, just two weeks ago was one of those rare times I had > "the feeling" that I knew something paranormal. I saw a picture in a magazine > of someone and just "knew" that I was looking at a dead person. Sure enough, > I found out the next day they were in a hospital and had just died (the next > day.) It is very difficult to put any statistical value on how significant > an event such as this really is. > > Dave Trissel {seismo,ihnp4}!ut-sally!oakhill Let me relate something that happened to me. I was driving down I80 in Pennsylvania, and suddenly got the feeling that there was a radar trap ahead. I slowed down, and voila', there was a cop just over the hill. AHA! ESP! But, having "watched" myself since then, I discovered that I get that radar trap feeling a lot, and I'm wrong each time. The point is, when nothing happens, it is not memorable. When something does happen, it is so amazing that it is remembered, and leads you to think it is ESP, when in reality, it's just the odds catching up with you. A valid analysis of the statistics in these cases show NO significant, extranormal effect. If this type of ESP exists, it is indistinguishable from chance occurences (another way of saying it doesn't exist). -- ". . . and shun the frumious Bandersnatch." Robert Neinast (ihnp4!ho95b!ran) AT&T-Bell Labs
wfi@rti-sel.UUCP (William Ingogly) (06/12/85)
In article <459@ho95b.UUCP> ran@ho95b.UUCP (RANeinast) writes: >Let me relate something that happened to me. I was driving down I80 >in Pennsylvania, and suddenly got the feeling that there was a radar >trap ahead. I slowed down, and voila', there was a cop just over the >hill. AHA! ESP! > > ... >A valid analysis of the statistics in these cases show NO significant, >extranormal effect. If this type of ESP exists, it is >indistinguishable from chance occurences (another way of saying >it doesn't exist). And even if your ability to 'predict' radar traps in this way DOES show a better-than-chance edge in the direction of success, it proves nothing. Radar cops set up their traps in a nonrandom fashion. For example, they may set one up just around a bend so drivers can't see the trap in advance, or just over a rise. You may have been analyzing the lay of the land each time you observed a speed trap without being aware of it, and 'subconsciously' derived the principles that Smokey uses when he sets up his speed traps. Nothing magical to it at all. There have been instances of alleged counting horses and other super-smart animals that illustrate this principle. In one well-known case (unfortunately, I can't remember the horse's name) the horse would read subtle body signals from its owner while it was counting, signals the owner wasn't even aware of. When the owner was removed from the horse's presence, Voila! The horse's I.Q. suddenly dropped to normal horsey levels. Unless an ESP investigator can demonstrate that there's NO possibility that subtle environmental cues of this nature are involved in alleged paranormal performances, his results are in doubt. It's interesting to note that the quality of results in some experiments have declined as experimental controls have been tightened to eliminate this sort of subtle cueing (I can't give a reference, but perhaps someone else in the group can). -- Bill Ingogly
dgary@ecsvax.UUCP (D Gary Grady) (06/13/85)
> There have been instances of alleged counting horses and other > super-smart animals that illustrate this principle. In one well-known > case (unfortunately, I can't remember the horse's name) the horse > would read subtle body signals from its owner while it was counting, > signals the owner wasn't even aware of. When the owner was removed > from the horse's presence, Voila! The horse's I.Q. suddenly dropped to > normal horsey levels. > -- Bill Ingogly The horse's name was "Clever Hans." I might plays devil's advocate and note that if the horse was using ESP to communicate with the owner that could also account for the observed behavior. Not that I buy that explanation! -- D Gary Grady Duke U Comp Center, Durham, NC 27706 (919) 684-3695 USENET: {seismo,decvax,ihnp4,akgua,etc.}!mcnc!ecsvax!dgary
davet@oakhill.UUCP (06/13/85)
[...net.physics removed from newsgroup heading...] In article <459@ho95b.UUCP> ran@ho95b.UUCP (RANeinast) writes: > >Let me relate something that happened to me. I was driving down I80 >in Pennsylvania, and suddenly got the feeling that there was a radar >trap ahead. I slowed down, and voila', there was a cop just over the >hill. AHA! ESP! > The trouble here is that even if you did statistically predict radar ahead there is another explanation. It's quite common to slow down somewhat when seeing a cop alongside the road. Thus, the traffic coming the other direction could be giving a very subtle clue which we sub(?)-conciously pick up making us feel that something's up ahead. This obviously would be reenforced over and over again. (Subtle slowing of cars going the other direction - a minute later you pass a cop [or car wreck or othe something which causes drivers to slow slightly.]) Therefore, even if "radar-guessing" was significantly demonstrated by an individual the above explanation would be a likely reason for it. I had a like thing happen to me at U. of Fla. where sometimes I just "knew" when the computer was going to crash. I think that probably I could hear high frequency emanations from the disk drives and that certain patterns would occur in the disk drive movements before certain types of crashes. Dave Trissel {seismo,ihnp4}!ut-sally!oakhill!davet
fred@mnetor.UUCP (Fred Williams) (06/13/85)
In article <248@rti-sel.UUCP> wfi@rti-sel.UUCP (William Ingogly) writes: > >There have been instances of alleged counting horses and other >super-smart animals that illustrate this principle. In one well-known >case (unfortunately, I can't remember the horse's name) the horse >would read subtle body signals from its owner while it was counting, >signals the owner wasn't even aware of. When the owner was removed >from the horse's presence, Voila! The horse's I.Q. suddenly dropped to >normal horsey levels. There was a horse about the time of WW1 or before that could give the answer to simple math problems even when the owner was not around. It was later discovered that he could get clues from anyone. Once he had reached the correct number people stopped expecting him to tap his hoof any further. He could read their body language. This actually seems to me to be almost as good a trick. If we want to discuss animal learning, there are some amazing examples. A newspaper I was reading a few months back carried a story of a hog farmer who put a thermostat in his pig pens consisting of buttons that the pigs could press with their snouts. The story is that the pigs would cut the temperature during some part of the day and thereby saved the farmer's electricity bill. Actually I suspect someone was pulling somebody's leg on this one. Anybody out there know of such things? Would these be better on some other newsgroup? Cheers, Fred Williams
kay@warwick.UUCP (Kay Dekker) (06/18/85)
In article <248@rti-sel.UUCP> wfi@rti-sel.UUCP (William Ingogly) writes: >There have been instances of alleged counting horses and other >super-smart animals that illustrate this principle. In one well-known >case (unfortunately, I can't remember the horse's name) the horse >would read subtle body signals from its owner while it was counting, >signals the owner wasn't even aware of. When the owner was removed >from the horse's presence, Voila! The horse's I.Q. suddenly dropped to >normal horsey levels. "Clever Hans", I think... Kay. -- "In a world without rational structure, even the most bizarre events must eventually take place." -- Philip Avalon, "On the Resurrection of Reagan" ... mcvax!ukc!warwick!flame!kay