beth@sphinx.UChicago.UUCP (JB) (10/31/85)
[This is likely to be gone by now.]
From: ln63fac@sdcc7.UUCP (Rick Frey), Message-ID: <139@sdcc7.UUCP>:
>Just for the sake of asking, what is 'unlikely' about God existing?
The likelihood of existence strikes me as a bizarre notion. 100
years ago how likely was it that any particular black hole existed?
How likely is it now? For Native Americans in the 1500's, how likely
was it that Australia existed? How likely is it now? After we find
answers to those questions, I'll ask the big one: So what?
Admittedly, I've always been a bit befuddled by probability stuff, but
likelihood only seems reasonable to me when it deals with recurrent
events like rain, and not with the existence or non-existence of a
particular object like Australia...or God. Am I befuddled again, or is
the likelihood of God's existence as meaningless, and hence useless, a
notion as I think it is?
--
--JB (Beth Christy, U. of Chicago, ..!ihnp4!gargoyle!sphinx!beth)
"I once heard the remainder of a colony of ants, which had been partially
obliterated by a cow's foot, seriously discussing the intentions of the
gods towards their civilization." -- Archy the Cockroachln63fac@sdcc7.UUCP (Rick Frey) (11/04/85)
In article <1261@sphinx.UChicago.UUCP>, beth@sphinx.UChicago.UUCP (JB) writes: > >>Just for the sake of asking, what is 'unlikely' about God existing? > > The likelihood of existence strikes me as a bizarre notion. 100 > years ago how likely was it that any particular black hole existed? > How likely is it now? For Native Americans in the 1500's, how likely > was it that Australia existed? How likely is it now? After we find > answers to those questions, I'll ask the big one: So what? > But we've got a problem here. Australia existed whether or not people knew about it. We also exist and unless we're willing to say I don't know to the question of how we got here, we have to either figure out what actually happened, or, to the best of our ability, figure out what most likely happened. The so what is a good question if this reason doesn't apply to us or if the effort to determine maybe not that much information would make the attempt unplausible, but we can simply sit and think about uncaused causes and actually come up with some fairly reasonable pieves of information. > Admittedly, I've always been a bit befuddled by probability stuff, but > likelihood only seems reasonable to me when it deals with recurrent > events like rain, and not with the existence or non-existence of a > particular object like Australia...or God. In some ways it's just a phrasing of the question. What is the likelihood of me turning over the top card of a deck of 52 cards and aving it be the Ace of Spades. You could look at this as the probability of the card's existence or of it's specific identity or a number of things. For another object like thing, let's try to figure out the probability of you owning a red sweater. Knowing almost nothing about you, your age, your taste in clothes, your favorite colors, my base of information is quite limited, but I could assume that since you work on the computer you're probably fairly affluent, sweaters are fairly in style right now (actually I have no idea whether or not sweaters are in style right now but it makes this dumb example alot easier) and red is a popular color. And since we all know that women have tons of clothes (my only solid, substantiated piece of evidence :-) I could say the likelihood of you having a red sweater is 60%, or 1% or whatever. But given information and a question, the likelihood of something can more often than not be determined. > Am I befuddled again, or is the likelihood of God's existence as meaningless, > and hence useless, a notion as I think it is? > I don't have the quote with me, but Winston Chruchill once said (something along these lines), "One of the most awesome thoughts I've ever entertained is that some day I will stand before God and be accountable for every deed I've ever done." If God exists, and is anything like Christians and the Bible claims He is, then there is no more important question in the whole world than your relationship to this God. And since this issue isn't an established fact, we're back to dealing with likelihood again. It's a meaningless notion if you'll never be able to determine anything one way or the other or if it doesn't really affect you either way. God claims that the effects of knowing Him are eternal and He also says, "If you seek for Me with all your heart, you shall find Me." Rick Frey
brengle@hplabsc.UUCP (Tim Brengle) (11/05/85)
> >Just for the sake of asking, what is 'unlikely' about God existing? > > [paragraph omitted] > > Admittedly, I've always been a bit befuddled by probability stuff, but > likelihood only seems reasonable to me when it deals with recurrent > events like rain, and not with the existence or non-existence of a > particular object like Australia...or God. Although I am not an expert, I have some training in probability. Recurrence is not the appropriate criterion for deciding when to use probability. Uncertainty is. It *is* appropriate to use probability to talk about individual or particular things. Remember the joke about the man being hauled away by airport security for bringing a bomb on board an airplane because the probability of TWO bombs on board being vanishingly small? Probability is most properly used when talking about the unknown. The probability that the universe exists is 1 (certainty), because the universe does exist (metaphysics aside). Similarly, the likelyhood that God exists is also 1. :-)
rlr@pyuxd.UUCP (Rich Rosen) (11/06/85)
> Remember the joke about the man being hauled away by airport security for > bringing a bomb on board an airplane because the probability of TWO bombs on > board being vanishingly small? Probability is most properly used when talking > about the unknown. The probability that the universe exists is 1 (certainty), > because the universe does exist (metaphysics aside). > > Similarly, the likelyhood that God exists is also 1. :-) [BRENGLE] Usually, a ":-)" follows something funny. Frankly, I find the fact that someone would make a statement like this (and claim it to be cute) to be quite sad. -- "iY AHORA, INFORMACION INTERESANTE ACERCA DE... LA LLAMA!" Rich Rosen ihnp4!pyuxd!rlr