Laws@SRI-AI.ARPA@sri-unix.UUCP (09/30/83)
From: Ken Laws <Laws@SRI-AI.ARPA>
[Reprinted from IEEE Computer, Sep. 1983, p. 116.]
Rapid Growth Predicted for AI-Based System
Expert systems are now moving out of the research laboratory and into
the commercial marketplace, according to "Artificial Intelligence,"
a 167-page research report from International Resource Development.
Revenue from all AI hardware, software, and services will amount to
only $70 million this year but is expected to reach $8 billion
in the next 10 years.
Biomedical applications promise to be among the fastest growing
uses of AI, reducing the time and cost of diagnosing illnesses and
adding to the accuracy of diagnoses. AI-based systems can range
from "electronic encyclopedias," which physicians can use as
reference sources, to full-fledged "electronic consultants"
capable of taking a patient through an extensive series of diagnostic
tests and determining the patient's ailments with great precision.
"Two immediate results of better diagnostic procedures may be a
reduction in the number of unnecessary surgical procedures performed
on patients and a decrease in the average number of expensive tests
performed on patients," predicts Dave Ledecky of the IRD research
staff. He also notes that the AI technology may leave hospitals
half-empty, since some operations turn out to be unnecessary.
However, he expects no such dramatic result anytime soon, since
widespread medical application of AI technology isn't expected for
about five years.
The IRD report also describes the activities of several new companies
that are applying AI technology to medical systems. Helena Laboratories
in Beaumont, Texas, is shipping a densitometer/analyzer, which
includes a serum protein diagnostic program developed by Rutgers
University using AI technology. Still in the development stage
are the AI-based products of IntelliGenetics in Palo Alto,
California, which are based on work conducted at Stanford University
over the last 15 years.
Some larger, more established companies are also investing in AI
research and development. IBM is reported to have more than five
separate programs underway, while Schlumberger, Ltd., is
spending more than $5 million per year on AI research, much of
which is centered on the use of AI in oil exploration.
AI software may dominate the future computer industry, according to
the report, with an increasing percentage of applications
programming being performed in Lisp or other AI-based "natural"
languages.
Further details on the $1650 report are available from IRD,
30 High Street, Norwalk, CT 06851; (800) 243-5008,
Telex: 64 3452.